Stock market rally

[ceejay]

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20130313.htm?T

Looking at this chart the rally may have some more room to go.…

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by ceejay

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20130313.htm?T

Looking at this chart the rally may have some more room to go.…

Today's chart illustrates rallies that followed massive bear markets. For today's chart, a 'massive' bear market is defined as a decline of greater than 50%. Since the Dow's inception in 1896, there have been only three bear markets whereby the Dow declined more than 50% (early 1930s, late 1930s until early 1940s, and during the recent financial crisis). Today's chart also adds the rally that followed the dot-com bust during which the Nasdaq declined 78%. The current Dow rally has followed the post dot-com bust rally of the Nasdaq that began back in 2002 fairly closely and held to a general post-massive bear market rally pattern -- rally during the first 300 trading days, trade in a relatively flat choppy manner up until around 600 trading days and then re-embark on the second leg of the rally. History may not repeat, but it rhymes.



Notes:
Where's the Dow headed? The answer may surprise you. Find out right now with the exclusive & Barron's recommended charts of Chart of the Day Plus.

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That's not much of a sample size, now, is it?

[badcompany]

btw,

Predictions from Barron's always make me nervous:


Barron's Cover | MONDAY, JUNE 2, 2008 Buy GM
By VITO RACANELLI | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR

General Motors' turnaround could accelerate in coming years, driving handsome gains for bold stockholders. Needed: A jolt from the hybrid Chevrolet Volt.

The shares could rise to at least 30 and maybe as much as 45 once those big cost reductions drop to the bottom line in 2010. And if the stars align perfectly -- the economy enjoys a second-half uptick and the housing market and consumer confidence turn for the better sooner than expected -- the stock's rebound could be quicker. Even a small improvement in sentiment could bring a disproportionate rise in the stock.

[sammy the sage]

It keeps going UP as long as THE FED continues the "MONEY OUTTA THIN AIR" policy...to the tune of 84 billion a month at 1% or less rates...

When they stop...watch out BELOW

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by sammy the sage

It keeps going UP as long as THE FED continues the "MONEY OUTTA THIN AIR" policy...to the tune of 84 billion a month at 1% or less rates...

When they stop...watch out BELOW

I agree. The FED has basically taken the government bonds out of the investment options for most Americans. The other countries's investors continue to buy them as flight to safety. I don't see the fed stopping anytime soon. When unemployment gets below 6%, maybe some slowing , at 4.5% it stops for sure. You do the math as to when that will be.

[Mike at A+]

In the short term, we will see small moves up and down UNTIL the day when the trading programs all kick in and see that the shit is about to hit the fan. At that point we'll see a 5-20% correction. Those government bonds may not look attractive today but they will remain a safe haven to park assets from selling as the market slowly rises in the short term. They say "buy the dips" but the converse is to "sell the blips" and while you may lose out on short term profits, you will be glad in the long run as the stuff you sell will be available to repurchase later at bargain basement prices. Unemployment below 6%? 4.5%? Ain't happening in our lifetimes. No freaking way. Not with 0bamacare.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

I agree. The FED has basically taken the government bonds out of the investment options for most Americans. The other countries's investors continue to buy them as flight to safety. I don't see the fed stopping anytime soon. When unemployment gets below 6%, maybe some slowing , at 4.5% it stops for sure. You do the math as to when that will be.

4.5 % ? Are you joking? I would be surprised to live long enough to see 4.5% unemployment

6% would be a god send in the next 5 yrs.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

4.5 % ? Are you joking? I would be surprised to live long enough to see 4.5% unemployment

...

It could happen... if some of these wackadoos over yonder can get those projectiles perfected and the range a little better... but yeah, other than that...

[RaceBookJoe]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

4.5 % ? Are you joking? I would be surprised to live long enough to see 4.5% unemployment

6% would be a god send in the next 5 yrs.

All depends on how many more low-paying jobs are created. Sure the unemployment # dropped, but the rate of jobs growth is at an 18 month low..which at this rate takes us to 2017 to reach pre-recession levels.
* Labor force participation fell to lowest levels since 1981..and this is 4 yrs into the supposed recovery. 89.3M not in the labor force...a record.
* More people left the workforce than jobs created
* only 58.6% of US citizens working vs 60.6% when obama took office
* long-term unemployed rose 90K, and up 1M since June 2009 ( when the recovery started )
* Jan/Feb 2012 jobs created 311k and 271 K
Jan/Feb 2013 jobs created 119k and 236k

But about the stock market, not sure the market will drop until they squeeze the rest of the money out of the retail investors that still havent jumped in yet. Once the internals start to turn, that will be the signal to watch..doesnt mean it will fall right away though.

[Robert Goren]

The point is the FED is going to keep pumping money in until the employment numbers get a whole lot lower. If we don't reach those numbers then the FED is not going to stop pumping in money.

[Mike at A+]

Look, the bottom line is that we are stuck for 4 more years with a racist piece of trash who will do all within his power to ensure that people who paid their dues will continue to pay for those who didn't. He will continue to invoke children, the disabled, the poor and seniors to promote an agenda that demonizes success and discourages the will to better oneself. He will tell the unmotivated and the terminally stupid to "punish" their "enemies" and they will stare with open mouths in agreement while prosperity becomes unattractive to more and more Americans. He is a Communist for the masses and a capitalist for himself, his family and his friends. And he is a traitor. Make no mistake. A TRAITOR who is DELIBERATELY destroying the very foundations upon which this country was built. He hates successful white people. If you don't see that, you are either blind, stupid or comfortably numb.

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by Mike at A+

Look, the bottom line is that we are stuck for 4 more years with a racist piece of trash who will do all within his power to ensure that people who paid their dues will continue to pay for those who didn't. He will continue to invoke children, the disabled, the poor and seniors to promote an agenda that demonizes success and discourages the will to better oneself. He will tell the unmotivated and the terminally stupid to "punish" their "enemies" and they will stare with open mouths in agreement while prosperity becomes unattractive to more and more Americans. He is a Communist for the masses and a capitalist for himself, his family and his friends. And he is a traitor. Make no mistake. A TRAITOR who is DELIBERATELY destroying the very foundations upon which this country was built. He hates successful white people. If you don't see that, you are either blind, stupid or comfortably numb.

All of the racist crock I have read in my life, this takes the cake. Move to Northern Idaho were the white separatists will crown you King.

[NJ Stinks]

Originally Posted by Mike at A+

Look, the bottom line is that we are stuck for 4 more years with a racist piece of trash who will do all within his power to ensure that people who paid their dues will continue to pay for those who didn't. He will continue to invoke children, the disabled, the poor and seniors to promote an agenda that demonizes success and discourages the will to better oneself. He will tell the unmotivated and the terminally stupid to "punish" their "enemies" and they will stare with open mouths in agreement while prosperity becomes unattractive to more and more Americans. He is a Communist for the masses and a capitalist for himself, his family and his friends. And he is a traitor. Make no mistake. A TRAITOR who is DELIBERATELY destroying the very foundations upon which this country was built. He hates successful white people. If you don't see that, you are either blind, stupid or comfortably numb.

Hey, that reminds me. How's that theory of yours that says the stock market tanks when Obama opens his mouth?

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by NJ Stinks

Hey, that reminds me. How's that theory of yours that says the stock market tanks when Obama opens his mouth?

He has to say something new for it to work... and we all know...

[Valuist]

There was an article in the Wall Street Journal recently pointing out that while the Dow surpassed the high from October 2007, one's money was actually worth 20% less. It isn't as good as it looks.