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05-05-2017, 11:31 AM
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#1
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Washoe County, Nevada
Posts: 2,253
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ELO Baseball
I have been betting small amounts on baseball (a game I have low knowledge of) using ELO probabilities for each individual game. Not surprisingly, after a short run of wins to start, I'm now underwater.
At this point I'm going to change my approach from betting every game that shows a positive expectation to betting only games where the expectation is 10% or more than the odds offered.
Today's games that meet that criteria are:
Cubs -122
White Sox +143
Just to make the numbers easy, I'll document a flat $100 bet on each game unless laying odds in which case I'll lay the full amount of the bet to return $100 (My actual bet is nowhere near these numbers) and keep a running total.
Today $222 bet.
After tomorrow (5/6), there will be a week of radio silence as I'll be out of internet contact until the 14th but I'll pick up the thread after that.
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05-05-2017, 11:58 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Houston , Tx.
Posts: 9,600
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For me baseball is much more difficult than football. By playing 162 games, managers seem willing to adjust rotations and playing time that might cost them a game mow, but perhaps make up for it winning a more important series next week. Unless you study each team with detail almost daily, you'd never really know. With football and so fewer games, no such handicapping other than knowing injuries is needed. I used to bet small amounts on the world series but little else.
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05-05-2017, 01:53 PM
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#3
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gelding
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 8,883
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05-06-2017, 11:14 AM
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#4
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Washoe County, Nevada
Posts: 2,253
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No bets for Saturday, May 6.
0-2 -222
Will be back posting in this thread Sunday May 14
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05-14-2017, 12:47 PM
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#5
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Washoe County, Nevada
Posts: 2,253
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Quote:
Originally Posted by _______
No bets for Saturday, May 6.
0-2 -222
Will be back posting in this thread Sunday May 14
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HOU +141 (Game 1 Fiers/Severino)
WAS -200
Total bet 300
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05-14-2017, 06:26 PM
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#6
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Washoe County, Nevada
Posts: 2,253
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Quote:
Originally Posted by _______
HOU +141 (Game 1 Fiers/Severino)
WAS -200
Total bet 300
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My bad on not specifying the WAS game. It was game 1 of the doubleheader.
0-4
-522
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05-15-2017, 01:00 PM
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#7
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Washoe County, Nevada
Posts: 2,253
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Quote:
Originally Posted by _______
My bad on not specifying the WAS game. It was game 1 of the doubleheader.
0-4
-522
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MIL Even
This is the only bet so far. White Sox are +165 right now and I need +169 to meet the criteria. I'll look later to see if the line moves in the direction needed and may add it if so.
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05-15-2017, 08:54 PM
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#8
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Washoe County, Nevada
Posts: 2,253
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Quote:
Originally Posted by _______
MIL Even
This is the only bet so far. White Sox are +165 right now and I need +169 to meet the criteria. I'll look later to see if the line moves in the direction needed and may add it if so.
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Adding White Sox +170
to
MIL Even
Total bet 200
0-4
-522
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05-16-2017, 10:24 AM
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#9
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Washoe County, Nevada
Posts: 2,253
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Quote:
Originally Posted by _______
Adding White Sox +170
to
MIL Even
Total bet 200
0-4
-522
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Lost another 2.
0-6
-722
At this point, although it's a small sample I feel like I have an answer and am shutting this down.
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