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Old 03-10-2018, 04:34 PM   #31
gabe
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do you recommend the wheel to fave exacta?
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Old 03-10-2018, 11:32 PM   #32
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do you recommend the wheel to fave exacta?
lol gyno stick to eog/tgf if you're going to bring these amateur questions here. This site is for real horseplayers.
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Old 03-11-2018, 10:13 AM   #33
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lol gyno stick to eog/tgf if you're going to bring these amateur questions here. This site is for real horseplayers.
I am assume this is inside joke, if not, not really called for is it?

I dont see how any question should be censored due to complexity.
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Old 03-11-2018, 10:14 AM   #34
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do you recommend the wheel to fave exacta?
I almost never do that, it would have to be a very very short price horse, like Diversify today at SA.
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Old 03-11-2018, 12:42 PM   #35
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We once had a professional player as a client whose specialty was to play low-odds horses that he had tossed as being bad win bets in the lower positions in exotics.

(Tough sentence. Let me say it again.)

Specifically, he would KEY those losing propositions.

1. He would pick his contenders.
2. Then he would look at his low-odds non-contenders.
3. He would bet the low-odds N/Cs underneath in exotics.
4. Example: He'd bet them in Ex2, Tri2 and Tri3, and Sup3 and Sup4.

His logic was that the Low N/Cs that were less-likely to win were likely to get into an inordinate number low Exactas, Trifectas, and Superfectas.

In our research, we have (anecdotally) for the most part, found this to be true.

Another (again, anecdotal) odd thing we've seen is that when choosing among multiple low-odds contenders, the ones most likely to be spoilers are the ones that were projected to be the worst bets in the win pool.


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Old 03-13-2018, 01:02 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
We once had a professional player as a client whose specialty was to play low-odds horses that he had tossed as being bad win bets in the lower positions in exotics.

(Tough sentence. Let me say it again.)

Specifically, he would KEY those losing propositions.

1. He would pick his contenders.
2. Then he would look at his low-odds non-contenders.
3. He would bet the low-odds N/Cs underneath in exotics.
4. Example: He'd bet them in Ex2, Tri2 and Tri3, and Sup3 and Sup4.

His logic was that the Low N/Cs that were less-likely to win were likely to get into an inordinate number low Exactas, Trifectas, and Superfectas.

In our research, we have (anecdotally) for the most part, found this to be true.

Another (again, anecdotal) odd thing we've seen is that when choosing among multiple low-odds contenders, the ones most likely to be spoilers are the ones that were projected to be the worst bets in the win pool.


Dave
I have recommended doing the above for years. It is amazing the amount of additional leverage achieved by just playing the short priced horse in the 3rd slot of a trifecta. If a race is compelling enough to make exacta bets without the short priced favorite in the 1st or 2nd slot then the favorite should be played in the 3rd hole of a trifecta.
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Old 03-13-2018, 02:17 PM   #37
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I have recommended doing the above for years. It is amazing the amount of additional leverage achieved by just playing the short priced horse in the 3rd slot of a trifecta. If a race is compelling enough to make exacta bets without the short priced favorite in the 1st or 2nd slot then the favorite should be played in the 3rd hole of a trifecta.
IMO, if the short-priced favorite figures to be out of the exacta...then a lot more "leverage" is achieved by keeping it out of the trifecta, as well. My experience tells me that these short-priced favorites are seldom the stretch-runners in the race; they are usually early-speed types who seek to take control of the race by the time the horses round the final turn. If such a horse figures to be passed late by two horses, then it could easily be passed by three...and the reward easily trumps the risk, as far as I am concerned.
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Old 03-13-2018, 02:39 PM   #38
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IMO, if the short-priced favorite figures to be out of the exacta...then a lot more "leverage" is achieved by keeping it out of the trifecta, as well. My experience tells me that these short-priced favorites are seldom the stretch-runners in the race; they are usually early-speed types who seek to take control of the race by the time the horses round the final turn. If such a horse figures to be passed late by two horses, then it could easily be passed by three...and the reward easily trumps the risk, as far as I am concerned.
Having said the above, I hasten to add that I am against any form of "formula betting"...where the race is approached with pre-conceived notions about how it should be wagered upon. IMO...the race should be bet in accordance with our handicapping opinions of the particular field...not in compliance with some pre-determined betting "formula".
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Old 03-13-2018, 05:39 PM   #39
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IMO, if the short-priced favorite figures to be out of the exacta...then a lot more "leverage" is achieved by keeping it out of the trifecta, as well. My experience tells me that these short-priced favorites are seldom the stretch-runners in the race; they are usually early-speed types who seek to take control of the race by the time the horses round the final turn. If such a horse figures to be passed late by two horses, then it could easily be passed by three...and the reward easily trumps the risk, as far as I am concerned.
I am not presenting what my experience or gut tells me. I looked at over 15 years of results where odd-on horses ran out of the top 2 spots. I found that the trifecta payoff relative to the exacta payoff was rewarded with a significantly higher payoff than the probability of the odds-on horse running 3rd. So if an exacta pays $100 and the probability of running 3rd is 50% after not running 1st or 2nd, then a fair price on the trifecta would be $200 with the odds-on horse running 3rd.
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Old 03-13-2018, 06:01 PM   #40
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I am not presenting what my experience or gut tells me. I looked at over 15 years of results where odd-on horses ran out of the top 2 spots. I found that the trifecta payoff relative to the exacta payoff was rewarded with a significantly higher payoff than the probability of the odds-on horse running 3rd. So if an exacta pays $100 and the probability of running 3rd is 50% after not running 1st or 2nd, then a fair price on the trifecta would be $200 with the odds-on horse running 3rd.
Yes...but how would this strategy work if you handicapped the race AHEAD of time, without knowing if the short-priced favorite would run out of the 2 top spots? Dave Schwartz's client was betting the races AHEAD of time...while your 15 year research was isolating those races where the short-priced favorite's "failure" was a foregone conclusion.

Do you think that isolating the short-priced favorite for 3rd in the trifecta is a profitable play for you going forward?
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Old 03-13-2018, 06:10 PM   #41
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Yes...but how would this strategy work if you handicapped the race AHEAD of time, without knowing if the short-priced favorite would run out of the 2 top spots? Dave Schwartz's client was betting the races AHEAD of time...while your 15 year research was isolating those races where the short-priced favorite's "failure" was a foregone conclusion.

Do you think that isolating the short-priced favorite for 3rd in the trifecta is a profitable play for you going forward?
I think if you get a fav 3rd the exacta is the obvious way to go. Covering more combinations in a tri the denomination will be less but you'll stack it up in an exacta. This is how I do it anyway.
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Old 03-13-2018, 06:32 PM   #42
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Yes...but how would this strategy work if you handicapped the race AHEAD of time, without knowing if the short-priced favorite would run out of the 2 top spots? Dave Schwartz's client was betting the races AHEAD of time...while your 15 year research was isolating those races where the short-priced favorite's "failure" was a foregone conclusion.

Do you think that isolating the short-priced favorite for 3rd in the trifecta is a profitable play for you going forward?
The play is an automatic play. If my handicapping lead me to betting exactas without the short-priced favorite I would allocate some of my bets to the trifecta.

Why wouldn't isolate races where the short-priced favorite is a failure? My exacta bet depends on such an occurrence so my only question is whether or not the exacta is the best way to play the race. If I can get significant leverage by using the short-priced favorite in the 3rd hole it is really a no-brainer.
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Old 03-13-2018, 06:43 PM   #43
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....Do you think that isolating the short-priced favorite for 3rd in the trifecta is a profitable play for you going forward?
If a bettor is profitable or breakeven when betting exactas with the short priced favorite out of the top 2 spots they will increase their profitability by adding a trifecta bet with the SPF in the 3rd hole. It's not a play you run across everyday, it's more a betting strategy than a handicapping strategy.
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Old 03-13-2018, 06:47 PM   #44
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Having said the above, I hasten to add that I am against any form of "formula betting"...where the race is approached with pre-conceived notions about how it should be wagered upon. IMO...the race should be bet in accordance with our handicapping opinions of the particular field...not in compliance with some pre-determined betting "formula".
No argument on the above point. If my handicapping opinion warrants an exacta bet then the betting strategy should not be ignored.
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Old 03-16-2018, 09:16 AM   #45
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A reason to play the exacta not emphasized in this thread is having a discrete opinion about the place position. Like an ABC/K type play. This is more obvious yet less intuitive to me than many other exacta strategies.

There's scant wisdom about handicapping for second, just a few allusions to seconditis and running styles that complement the likely winner or work against track bias or race shape. I suspect people generally regard the place position as missing the win rather than getting up for second, and that more focus on the latter might point to fewer underlays.

I'm thinking something like a hard knocking type that runs his race and collects a check but not otherwise determined to win, coupled with a set win-or-fade contenders. If you can find a dark key for second with a few win contenders that aren't the favorite you might find a juicy overlay without spreading much.

The headwind here is indiscriminate overbetting of bombs for second with something logical on top, which is why I'm about the discrete place pick. I also suspect there's a bit less betting pressure on otherwise logical choices for place than for win.

Despite some wisdom to the contrary, many folks probably bet all the win contenders in exacta combos, wasting place slots on non-winners that fade out of the money, and overlooking more likely place contenders. I, too, am seduced by the exacta to get action on multiple horses, to the detriment of my bankroll. I've reduced my spreading but hit rate is low. Sometimes I'll play chalk I like pretty cold but an underlay is still an underlay. I focus on complementary running styles but I suspect faders are killing me.

I also think we tend to bet symmetrically, and I wonder if four exactas AB/CD type play might avoid more underlays than AB/ABC.

I'm a firm believer in dutching, which lends discipline to the play. I'm a small bettor, and sometimes the dutch is too little a fraction of the bet, but I figure if it's too much trouble to dutch, then I'm probably spreading too much with too weak an opinion.

Happy to be proven wrong by evidence, but just wanted to air out some of my exacta thinking. I've always been pretty enamored with the pool but not terribly successful.
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