Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray2000
Dave
That's an interesting approach to combining factors.
Have you looked at weighting the Reynolds ranks with impact values?
Perhaps Early speed is more or less important than class.
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Absolutely.
There are two sides to the coin:
1) Using an absolute number as in the original article.
2) Weighting the best factors together into (what we call) an "Object."
#1 - Contender Selection
When the horse is in the winners circle, and you ask yourself, "What indicated that this horse might be the winner?" - The answer we get most often is that the horse will have one of the following Reynolds number combinations:
11, 12, 13, 22
Notice that 14 (which would be a Reynolds number of four) is not in the list.
Of course, the more factors you consider, the easier it is for a horse to qualify. We have found that the optimum number of factors to use is five.
This process will produce a huge number of winners among your contenders. Furthermore, the great majority of winners that are left out of this process are not gettable with conventional handicapping techniques. In other words, you are not going to get too many $85 horses this way.
#2 - Factor Weighting
As a general rule, unless you have a very large database, any waiting process that you create will be heavily flawed. Even with our large database (around 450,000 races at all times) the proper weight for a given factor will change from one type of race to another.
We face the same issues as everyone else, even with BIG DATA.
Our solution to the problem has been to use a simple, Fibonacci weighting system.
100
62
38
24
15
In this way, all we have to do is determine the
ORDER of importance as opposed to the actual proper
WEIGHT.
Dave