I agree with you for the most. I don't think closers can have too much a shot. I think that the "tired horse" and stamina issue is blown out of proportion.
Justify is a large horse and none of the other horses in this race have a stride like Justify. Combined with his speed and he's the obvious winner -inferior stamina/over-raced/declining form or not. I just don't really see the upset. Tenfold has this great rhythym and Free Drop Billy has pedigree and recent workouts going for him but he's got kind of a short stride.
My prediction is that Justify will make the Belmont win look near effortless (at least compared to the notoreity of the Belmont being a tough stamina race). And if he doesn't it's because other horse near his pace really step up their game.
I would bet Free Drop Billy since he's finished in the money and maybe has some versatility that can lend him a run close to the pace. Actuallly think he's the better 'closer' pick over Hofburg, even without considering the odds.
From my observation, Justify takes after the Ghostzapper side of his pedigree and I could expect to see him run like Shaman Ghost (Ghostzapper) in the Brooklyn Invitational, tho perhaps with more company down the stretch. I think Bravazo will be the one to test him there. Maybe even a stretch battle. BUT really I can't see any horse not near the lead from the start making any way to first or second, third even. Yet the Belmont Stakes trends are making it hard for me to bet this way and put my money where my mouth is, so to speak. And if I wasn't ok with being wrong I wouldn't bet on horses in the first place.
I really love that race. How Rosario hand rides him out of the turn and doesn't have to ask for much. and the horses too far back at that turn don't seem to have much of a chance, speed, stride, stamina or not. Ghostzapper has produced some good routers with tactical speed. Holy Helena is another off the top my head tho she's a turf runner.