Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Off Topic > Off Topic - General


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 02-14-2018, 06:50 PM   #1
maddog42
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,357
Nate Silver is my new hero

I picked up Nate Silvers 2002 book The Signal and the Noise today. Read about 40 pages. This is on page 11:

"A long-term study by Philip E. Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania found that when political scientists claimed that a political outcome had absolutely no chance of occurring it nevertheless happened about 15 percent of the time."

He also went on to say that poly-sci guys are probably still better than TV pundits. Note the date of the book, after Gore lost but before Trump.
__________________
There are more things in Heaven and Earth Horatio, than are dreamed of in your philosophy.
maddog42 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-14-2018, 10:43 PM   #2
davew
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,461
Nate had Hillary at 90%
davew is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-15-2018, 07:04 AM   #3
maddog42
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,357
Quote:
Originally Posted by davew View Post
Nate had Hillary at 90%
I don't think so. He gave Trump a 29% chance about 48 hours before the election. I have stated this percentage in other posts.
__________________
There are more things in Heaven and Earth Horatio, than are dreamed of in your philosophy.
maddog42 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-15-2018, 07:16 AM   #4
maddog42
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,357
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-a-close-race/
__________________
There are more things in Heaven and Earth Horatio, than are dreamed of in your philosophy.
maddog42 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-15-2018, 08:49 AM   #5
maddog42
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,357
Handicappers take note, chapter 8 of this book is about Bayesian probability.
__________________
There are more things in Heaven and Earth Horatio, than are dreamed of in your philosophy.
maddog42 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-15-2018, 11:01 AM   #6
_______
Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Washoe County, Nevada
Posts: 2,253
Definitely a worthy read. If you enjoy his chapter on Bayesian probability, you should try beating 538’s pro football algo next season. I hung in for a little while before blowing up completely after some overconfidence in games where key players were injured and the team won anyway. Their algo doesn’t take injuries into account at all. I overweighted their importance and lost some games I rated at 98% probability. Don’t do that.

I think you hit a zero by accident. The book was published in 2012.
_______ is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-15-2018, 11:48 AM   #7
davew
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,461
Quote:
Originally Posted by maddog42 View Post
I don't think so. He gave Trump a 29% chance about 48 hours before the election. I have stated this percentage in other posts.
I was wrong - 88.1% on Oct 17

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
davew is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-15-2018, 11:51 AM   #8
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,513
Nate Silver is quality. He actually has insight.

A percentage of the 'pundits' we see are average or below average in terms of insight, even though they are authorities at these fields.

An authoritative position and maybe a little charisma is generally sufficient to sell. Insight such as Silver's is often considered 'superfluous'.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-15-2018, 05:34 PM   #9
maddog42
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,357
Quote:
Originally Posted by _______ View Post
Definitely a worthy read. If you enjoy his chapter on Bayesian probability, you should try beating 538’s pro football algo next season. I hung in for a little while before blowing up completely after some overconfidence in games where key players were injured and the team won anyway. Their algo doesn’t take injuries into account at all. I overweighted their importance and lost some games I rated at 98% probability. Don’t do that.

I think you hit a zero by accident. The book was published in 2012.
I definitely goofed on the publication date, but not on his chances of Trump winning. Thanks for the correction and the worthy insights. Is their algorithm published or just described?
__________________
There are more things in Heaven and Earth Horatio, than are dreamed of in your philosophy.

Last edited by maddog42; 02-15-2018 at 05:37 PM. Reason: addition
maddog42 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-15-2018, 07:51 PM   #10
maddog42
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,357
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
Nate Silver is quality. He actually has insight.

A percentage of the 'pundits' we see are average or below average in terms of insight, even though they are authorities at these fields.

An authoritative position and maybe a little charisma is generally sufficient to sell. Insight such as Silver's is often considered 'superfluous'.
I am impressed with his predictions and his reasoning. He makes a big deal of predictive power and being brutally honest about evaluations.
__________________
There are more things in Heaven and Earth Horatio, than are dreamed of in your philosophy.
maddog42 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:12 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.