Jason Kassa Handicaps the Saratoga Early Pick-5

[Robert Fischer]

RACE1 - A= B= (QUICK ON THE DRAW- Abreu resuscitates layoff project. COOL AS YOU LIKE - Same boat for Nevin, questionable tactical speed.) (STRATEGY- Don't be stupid by trying to be too cute. 2 is a tempting single, or simply both 2 and 4. Leave the door open for value in a short field that is unlikely to be the leverage point of the P5)


RACE 2 - A= ( TOSSUP got an education first out. I personally like her better, but why quibble? ELEGANT ZIP is a game filly.) (STRATEGY- I need one of these two standouts to win. I'm willing to lose if they both lose.) (LONG SHOT NOTE: MARGIE CAT really surprised me in her workout footage)


RACE 3 - A= (STRATEGY- BETTING AGAINST the morning line favorite , who comes off a win in a favorable setup off the turf)

RACE 4 - ALL () ( AVERY MAEVE is a bridesmaid type. She is OBVIOUS and logial and will be favored. If she hangs this one could be up for grabs)

RACE 5 - ALL (Guessing game with tradeoffs for experience and value. Interested in LONG SHOT CHARMING CARA for low% barn with occasionaly NY-Bred success)



['PRO' TICKET
ALL A'S =
$2 P5 2, 4
$2 P5 3, 6
$2 P5 1, 2, 4
$2 P5 1, 2, 6, 7, 8
$2 P5 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Wager Total $1080.00

EMPHASIZED OPINION=
$0.50 P5 2, 4
$0.50 P5 3, 6
$0.50 P5 1, 2, 4
$0.50 P5 1, 2, 6, 7
$0.50 P5 1, 4, 6, 7
Wager Total $96.00

A'S WT/ 1B
$0.50 P5 1, 6 ('B')
$0.50 P5 3, 6
$0.50 P5 1, 2, 4
$0.50 P5 1, 2, 6, 7, 8
$0.50 P5 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Wager Total $270.00

TOTAL = $1446]






[BUDGET STAB
$0.50 P5 2, 4
$0.50 P5 3, 6
$0.50 P5 1, 2, 4
$0.50 P5 1, 2, 6, 7
$0.50 P5 1, 4, 6, 7
Wager Total $96.00]


GOOD LUCK. LET'S GET THE RAIN AND THE SCRATCHES OUT OF OUR SYSTEM FOR TRAVERS DAY

[jay68802]

Good luck, I agree with you on the last two legs, both races have price written all over them.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Good luck, I agree with you on the last two legs, both races have price written all over them.

Thanks. Need a price eventually, as many singled the winner in the first race.

I hope the don't duel each other into submission in R2. They both seem like obvious standouts. Also will kick myself if the long shot Margie Cat wins. She is showing some early money in exactas under the ... Her workout videos happened to be posted, and she is a decent NY-bred type. Given the strength of the favorites in here, I'm guessing will be focused toward experience here and not hard-used. Maybe keep an eye on her going forward?

[jay68802]

you got my interest so I took a look at the 4th leg.
.........IF.............EP.........LP
_-3.713 ___ .37 ___ .27
_-0.507 ___ .36 ___ .29
_-4.809 ___ .37 ___ .25
_0.132___ .36 ___ .29
_0.201___ .35 ___ .29
_1.493___ .35 ___ .31
_3.686___ .33 ___ .35


From my little program. Notice the early pace. It is high (above.35) for six of the 7 runners. Notice the late pace, low for six of the 7 runners. The first column is a improvement factor. The highest rated horse here is also the one most likely to benefit from the pace. is a contender here, and 20-1 on the ML.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by jay68802

you got my interest so I took a look at the 4th leg.
.........IF.............EP.........LP
_-3.713 ___ .37 ___ .27
_-0.507 ___ .36 ___ .29
_-4.809 ___ .37 ___ .25
_0.132___ .36 ___ .29
_0.201___ .35 ___ .29
_1.493___ .35 ___ .31
_3.686___ .33 ___ .35


From my little program. Notice the early pace. It is high (above.35) for six of the 7 runners. Notice the late pace, low for six of the 7 runners. The first column is a improvement factor. The highest rated horse here is also the one most likely to benefit from the pace. is a contender here, and 20-1 on the ML.

Would love to see that. (provided I survive r3) It looks like either the will out-class the field with a short well-timed move, or whoever happens to be running with the flow will get up...

Race 3 is no given. The 'steam' horse is the . Everyone is hyped because of Navarro taking on this 5yo mare, but to be honest he will need to improve her to be competitive... Had to use, but not overconfident.

Has a puncher's chance to wire this field. I'm slightly rooting for the . I could use a dash of value, and she is a bit one-paced, but very strong and fundamentally sound, and gets off the rail for once today...

I did not use the . Slightly scary, and the is also obviously a danger to ruin all of the tickets.

[Robert Fischer]

Given that I believe the to be an overlay in R3 , and the risk IF AVERY MAEVE wins the 4th race creating a value vacuum in my P5 tickets, I'm going to try to leverage;

$10 P3
$10 P3
$10 P3 ALL
Wager Total $90.00

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Given that I believe the to be an overlay in R3 , and the risk IF AVERY MAEVE wins the 4th race creating a value vacuum in my P5 tickets, I'm going to try to leverage;

$10 P3
$10 P3
$10 P3 ALL
Wager Total $90.00

Smart move Survived the stewards dice-roll randomness

One way or another, I'm gonna find ya'
I'm gonna get ya', get ya', get ya', get ya'
One way or another,

[jay68802]

Got your 2, lets get a price now! (like the longest shot on the board).

For the double I need the or , also keying the in the exacta.

[jay68802]

and...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VFuHj9_Tgw

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Got your 2, lets get a price now! (like the longest shot on the board).

For the double I need the or , also keying the in the exacta.

I'm gonna rest on my laurels and cheer on your in race 4

[Robert Fischer]

Shot through the heart
Avery Maeve
Darlin', you give love a bad name (bad name)


that hurts.

leverage point in the pick-5. Got a P3 to help the cause, but really want a price in here now

[Robert Fischer]

CHARMING CARA longest shot on the board... Same connections that brought us DREAMING OF CARA, and MY CARA MIA.

Bought her from auction in May...

I know Friedman is a low% barn, but he has occasional NY-Breds... Is the horse totally dismissed for trainer stats? or is it well known that the $70k or whatever they spent 3 months ago was a mistake?

could be value

[Robert Fischer]

looks OK on the track

wins the 'best turned-out' award from Godolphin , can't be looking obviously terrible or anything


$1 EX ALL WT/ = $8

$50c Tri ALL WT ALL WT = $28

no need to bet more on her on top as she's covered.


Come on Baby!

[Robert Fischer]

wagered: $1,572.00
returned: $4,414.00
$1 ROI: $2.81

add me on facebook if that's your thing

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

[B]
['PRO' TICKET
ALL A'S =
$2 P5 2, 4
$2 P5 3, 6
$2 P5 1, 2, 4
$2 P5 1, 2, 6, 7, 8
$2 P5 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Wager Total $1080.00

EMPHASIZED OPINION=
$0.50 P5 2, 4
$0.50 P5 3, 6
$0.50 P5 1, 2, 4
$0.50 P5 1, 2, 6, 7
$0.50 P5 1, 4, 6, 7
Wager Total $96.00

A'S WT/ 1B
$0.50 P5 1, 6 ('B')
$0.50 P5 3, 6
$0.50 P5 1, 2, 4
$0.50 P5 1, 2, 6, 7, 8
$0.50 P5 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Wager Total $270.00

TOTAL = $1446]


GOOD LUCK. LET'S GET THE RAIN AND THE SCRATCHES OUT OF OUR SYSTEM FOR TRAVERS DAY

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

$10 P3
$10 P3
$10 P3 ALL
Wager Total $90.00

[jay68802]

Good hit.

Got a good double myself. And just because of the price horse in the last leg...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-WjGz8G4tw