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Old 04-22-2018, 10:27 AM   #16
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You just got a 98 on a Dream Trip...
I look at Beyers to guess a 'top' or 'peak'.

How fast can a horse run if he gets a good trip?


Justify (107, 104,101), Bolt d'Oro(102,101,103) earned their speed figures going all out, and didn't really show any flaws. Maybe Justify could have gone slightly better with a smoother lead-change, but that is getting too exact for the purpose. These were fairly reliable figures given the setting.

Magnum Moon ran a 98. He had an absolute DREAM TRIP. He probably ran about as fast as he could. The question comes in with whether faster fractions early (Arkansas was a moderate-slow pace setup) would have allowed him to run faster, or whether it would have hindered him(more energy early, maybe not saving ground into the far turn, when everyone else had to wheel wide...). I have a hard time 'upgrading' a dream trip, unless the horse has shown prior faster figures. Ran a 97 in the more fair Rebel Stakes.


Mendelssohn 106? - Who knows... Tough to make a figure halfway across the world. It's a rough estimate. Add a '?' to his peak. 86 in the BCJUVTRF

Good Magic ran a 95 in the Bluegrass and a 100 in the juvenile. He's in the same camp as Magnum Moon, although we know what GM will do if he's faced with adversity.

Vino Rosso showed his peak is about 98. He may however enjoy another furlong more than most which could add a '+' symbol to his peak.

Audible showed his peak is about 99. He will not get as good a setup in the derby so maybe you add a '-' symbol
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Old 04-22-2018, 11:12 AM   #17
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Oaklawn Park has an upward incline going into the backstretch and a downward incline going into the stretch.
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Old 04-22-2018, 11:15 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
I look at Beyers to guess a 'top' or 'peak'.

How fast can a horse run if he gets a good trip?


Justify (107, 104,101), Bolt d'Oro(102,101,103) earned their speed figures going all out, and didn't really show any flaws. Maybe Justify could have gone slightly better with a smoother lead-change, but that is getting too exact for the purpose. These were fairly reliable figures given the setting.

Magnum Moon ran a 98. He had an absolute DREAM TRIP. He probably ran about as fast as he could. The question comes in with whether faster fractions early (Arkansas was a moderate-slow pace setup) would have allowed him to run faster, or whether it would have hindered him(more energy early, maybe not saving ground into the far turn, when everyone else had to wheel wide...). I have a hard time 'upgrading' a dream trip, unless the horse has shown prior faster figures. Ran a 97 in the more fair Rebel Stakes.


Mendelssohn 106? - Who knows... Tough to make a figure halfway across the world. It's a rough estimate. Add a '?' to his peak. 86 in the BCJUVTRF

Good Magic ran a 95 in the Bluegrass and a 100 in the juvenile. He's in the same camp as Magnum Moon, although we know what GM will do if he's faced with adversity.

Vino Rosso showed his peak is about 98. He may however enjoy another furlong more than most which could add a '+' symbol to his peak.

Audible showed his peak is about 99. He will not get as good a setup in the derby so maybe you add a '-' symbol

You can also say any horse that had run lights out in their last prep before the Derby has already run their Derby.
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Old 04-22-2018, 12:44 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
I look at Beyers to guess a 'top' or 'peak'.

How fast can a horse run if he gets a good trip?


Justify (107, 104,101), Bolt d'Oro(102,101,103) earned their speed figures going all out, and didn't really show any flaws. Maybe Justify could have gone slightly better with a smoother lead-change, but that is getting too exact for the purpose. These were fairly reliable figures given the setting.

Magnum Moon ran a 98. He had an absolute DREAM TRIP. He probably ran about as fast as he could. The question comes in with whether faster fractions early (Arkansas was a moderate-slow pace setup) would have allowed him to run faster, or whether it would have hindered him(more energy early, maybe not saving ground into the far turn, when everyone else had to wheel wide...). I have a hard time 'upgrading' a dream trip, unless the horse has shown prior faster figures. Ran a 97 in the more fair Rebel Stakes.


Mendelssohn 106? - Who knows... Tough to make a figure halfway across the world. It's a rough estimate. Add a '?' to his peak. 86 in the BCJUVTRF

Good Magic ran a 95 in the Bluegrass and a 100 in the juvenile. He's in the same camp as Magnum Moon, although we know what GM will do if he's faced with adversity.

Vino Rosso showed his peak is about 98. He may however enjoy another furlong more than most which could add a '+' symbol to his peak.

Audible showed his peak is about 99. He will not get as good a setup in the derby so maybe you add a '-' symbol
Good stuff.
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Old 04-22-2018, 01:11 PM   #20
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yes, I will always remember that about DWL and how he could have been so foolish to put Charasmatic in a 75,000 claimer????? i guess he did not know what he had??? I believe the late, Chris Antley, rode.
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Old 04-22-2018, 01:59 PM   #21
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yes, I will always remember that about DWL and how he could have been so foolish to put Charasmatic in a 75,000 claimer????? i guess he did not know what he had??? I believe the late, Chris Antley, rode.
it was a 62500 claimer, just for accuracy sake.

I think the moral to the story is these are developing horses who can make giant leaps forward. It would be nice if racing fit in a statistical bow where computer algorithms did all the work.....oh wait were getting close to that!
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Old 04-23-2018, 08:16 AM   #22
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Today's Beyers are much lower than they used to be.
a 106 today is like a 112 back in the day. (roughly)

I was looking at some stuff in Quinn's Handicapper's Condition book and hisguidleis for Grade 1 races were that they were won by Grade 1 horses and they should show at least one race of 115 of higher.

You won't be betting too many Gr1 races using that one!
My database shows that a Grade 1 for older males at one mile has a Beyer Par of 110.

To put that 106 in perspective, since 2013, the Beyer par for 3yos going 9 furlongs in Gr1 races is 100. Going 8.5 furlongs it is 97.
Very good point. My par for grade 1 is a little higher but close.
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