Do past performances not at today's distance tell you anything?

[mishka]

One of the more preplexing aspects of handicapping a race for me is how to use, if at all, past performances of a horse who is changing distance. Is there anything for example, in the details of a 6f race that illuminates the capabilities when horses stretches to a mile or more?

Now many horses seem to run a mixture of both to get some idea if there is a distance change, but I have seen races where a good number of experienced horses with a decent number of races suddenly running at a different distance. In some cases, no data at all.

Or is the changing of distance for a horse more an issue of understanding trainer and owner intent?

The best advice I read was from Beyer who wrote that in the case of a sprinter going long, look to his late speed ratings for an indication of potential success, and that in general seems to be on target.

[gm10]

Originally Posted by mishka

One of the more preplexing aspects of handicapping a race for me is how to use, if at all, past performances of a horse who is changing distance. Is there anything for example, in the details of a 6f race that illuminates the capabilities when horses stretches to a mile or more?

Now many horses seem to run a mixture of both to get some idea if there is a distance change, but I have seen races where a good number of experienced horses with a decent number of races suddenly running at a different distance. In some cases, no data at all.

Or is the changing of distance for a horse more an issue of understanding trainer and owner intent?

The best advice I read was from Beyer who wrote that in the case of a sprinter going long, look to his late speed ratings for an indication of potential success, and that in general seems to be on target.

I would advise that BSF should be one of the last things you look at when handicapping a horse stretching out.
I prefer using distribution of previous sectionals, trainer success with this angle, workout patterns, pedigree, running style vs likely pace scenario ... for such horses.

[Overlay]

I think distance switches can be significant in determining whether a horse is likely to be in the hunt for the early lead, and I take it into account there. I also use impact values that are specific to the distance category of today's race, but not in relation to how that distance compares to the distances of a horse's other recent races. My considerations of class, condition, and speed are made without regard to distance. I also don't eliminate any horse outright from consideration based on distance (or on any other factor, for that matter).

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by mishka

One of the more preplexing aspects of handicapping a race for me is how to use, if at all, past performances of a horse who is changing distance. Is there anything for example, in the details of a 6f race that illuminates the capabilities when horses stretches to a mile or more?

Now many horses seem to run a mixture of both to get some idea if there is a distance change, but I have seen races where a good number of experienced horses with a decent number of races suddenly running at a different distance. In some cases, no data at all.

Or is the changing of distance for a horse more an issue of understanding trainer and owner intent?

The best advice I read was from Beyer who wrote that in the case of a sprinter going long, look to his late speed ratings for an indication of potential success, and that in general seems to be on target.

I don't trust the sprinter to reproduce his best speed figures when he goes long...and I trust the shortening-up router even less.

When my highest-rated horses present distance concerns...I keep the money in my pocket.

There are enough worries in this game when we compare apples to apples; I don't believe in going out of my way to compare apples to watermelons.

There are enough races available today to satisfy even the most discriminating appetite.

Why go looking for trouble?

[bigmack]

Hey Thask, are you a database handicapper?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by bigmack

Hey Thask, are you a database handicapper?

No.

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by mishka

One of the more preplexing aspects of handicapping a race for me is how to use, if at all, past performances of a horse who is changing distance. Is there anything for example, in the details of a 6f race that illuminates the capabilities when horses stretches to a mile or more?

Now many horses seem to run a mixture of both to get some idea if there is a distance change, but I have seen races where a good number of experienced horses with a decent number of races suddenly running at a different distance. In some cases, no data at all.

Or is the changing of distance for a horse more an issue of understanding trainer and owner intent?

The best advice I read was from Beyer who wrote that in the case of a sprinter going long, look to his late speed ratings for an indication of potential success, and that in general seems to be on target.

If a sprinter runs close to the pace and can get the last quarter in 24 seconds or less, you've got a live one. Early speed, late drive and endurance. You can almost do this one with a glance at the pps, the late drive is critical.

[raybo]

Different distances than today's distance, IMO, should not be used for comparison/rating purposes, but they should be analyzed regarding form cycle. Trainer intent is often tied to these "off distance" races, using the race as a conditioning activity.

[windoor]

Originally Posted by raybo

Different distances than today's distance, IMO, should not be used for comparison/rating purposes, but they should be analyzed regarding form cycle. Trainer intent is often tied to these "off distance" races, using the race as a conditioning activity.

I was going to respond to the question (as I have a nice spot play for this scenario) but this says it all.

Windoor

[HUSKER55]

I have a question for you database guys. When a horse drops in distance does the actual time for the call points really change that much?

thanks

[raybo]

Originally Posted by HUSKER55

I have a question for you database guys. When a horse drops in distance does the actual time for the call points really change that much?

thanks

I'm not a big database guy but.........

Although class level has an impact here, it may not appear that the early fractions differ much, but when you consider the distance left to run, a "fifth" or 2, faster or slower, can be huge.

[gm10]

Originally Posted by HUSKER55

I have a question for you database guys. When a horse drops in distance does the actual time for the call points really change that much?

thanks

YES

A true router being asked to run at sprint speed is usually going to blow his brains out.

There are two types of energy stores ... aerobic and anaerobic. The first involves oxygen and becomes the main source of energy after 4-5F. The latter doesn't, and is the main source of energy in the first half mile.

A router usually can't handle the anaerobic exercise at sprint speed.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by gm10

YES

A true router being asked to run at sprint speed is usually going to blow his brains out.

There are two types of energy stores ... aerobic and anaerobic. The first involves oxygen and becomes the main source of energy after 4-5F. The latter doesn't, and is the main source of energy in the first half mile.

A router usually can't handle the anaerobic exercise at sprint speed.

That's true for not just comparisons between sprints and routes, but also, different distances within both categories. For example, many players will use 6.5f races to rate ability at 6f, even 5.5f, and vice versa. But, there is a big difference between 5.5f/6f vs 6.5f, namely the stretch run distance. In routes, the fractional call distances are even more pronounced, and should, IMO, not be "grouped" loosely. One might group 1m and 1m70, but, 1 1/16m, 1 1/8m, 1 1/4m, etc., are different animals.

Individual running styles of the competitors must, of course, also be considered when looking at different race distances.

[gm10]

Originally Posted by raybo

That's true for not just comparisons between sprints and routes, but also, different distances within both categories. For example, many players will use 6.5f races to rate ability at 6f, even 5.5f, and vice versa. But, there is a big difference between 5.5f/6f vs 6.5f, namely the stretch run distance. In routes, the fractional call distances are even more pronounced, and should, IMO, not be "grouped" loosely. One might group 1m and 1m70, but, 1 1/16m, 1 1/8m, 1 1/4m, etc., are different animals.

Individual running styles of the competitors must, of course, also be considered when looking at different race distances.

Absolutely true.

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by mishka

Is there anything for example, in the details of a 6f race that illuminates the capabilities when horses stretches to a mile or more?

A fine example is The Lumber Guy in the Wood Memorial, the pps can be found here: http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm Scroll to Pletcher, then Wood Memorial. Another example is La Bernadin, today at AQ, race six.

The Lumber Guy runs two sprints. In his first he is the early speed and gets the last fraction in 24.1; same in his second sprint, the internal fraction in 24.2 (bobbled at the start). His early speed coupled with his late drive qualifies him to stretch out in distance. Today he goes from an R 75k 7f to the G1 1M 9f Wood. Did the trainer intend for him to run in the Wood, or did his ability dictate they run him there? Always difficult to know if sprinters can get distance, so I check the Dosage to get an idea if the horse is a distance fit. The Dosage for The Lumber Guy is DI 4.78 CD 1.04, the Dosage for 9f is DI 2.87 CD 0.65. Doesn’t fit; he is a sprinter not a router.

No single handicapping factor stands alone. His early speed, late drive and Dosage must be considered along with other handicapping factors: class, condition, pace, bias, jockey, trainer and weight among many others. Gotta’ figure The Lumber Guy is in top condition showing three sharp 5f tr.t works and is gonna’ set the pace on a speed bias with a jockey hitting 19% and a trainer hitting 31% - he picks up 7 lbs. There is no doubt he has the potential to wire this field should he get an easy lead . . . which leads us to his class and how he compares to the competition. I think Robert Fisher said it best, “The Lumber Guy in a tough spot for NY bred w/ 2 lifetime starts.” He goes from a Restricted Stakes to a G1, running against one of the best horses in the country in Gemologist. Gemologist may not be as fast as The Lumber Guy, but he certainly outclasses him.

Will class trump speed or are they the same thing? Should be interesting to see how the different handicapping factors play out. That extra 7 pounds might make all the difference. If it goes like most of the other Derby preps, early speed is caught late by the class.

Should be fun to watch.