Florida Derby/UAE Derby/Louisiana Derby

[ten2oneormore]

The Louisiana and UAE Derby's are set.

Florida Derby
probables

Union Rags
El Padrino
Take Charge Indy
News Pending
Reveron
Fort Loudon
Neck n' Neck



Louisiana Derby
(pp7)1-Mr Bowling (R Albarado)2-1
(pp8)1A-Mark Valeski (R Napravnik)2-1
(pp1)2-Fire Alarm (M Mena)20-1
(pp2)3-Windsurfer (J Velasquez)12-1
(pp3)4-Finnegans Wake (C Lanerie)15-1
(pp4)5-Flashy Sunrise (R Maragh)30-1
(pp5)6-Cigar Street (S Bridgmohan)7-2
(pp6)7-Shared Property (L Goncalves)10-1
(pp9)8-Arm Force (J Leparoux)20-1
(pp10)9-Comisky's Humor (R Eramia)20-1
(pp11)10-Z Dager (S Sellers)8-1
(pp12)11-Rousing Sermon (M Smith)6-1
(pp13)12-Hero Of Order (E Martin Jr)30-1
(pp14)13-Afford (J Graham)15-1



UAE Derby
1-Lucky Chappy (A Garcia)16-1
2-Burano (K Fallon)14-1
3-Maritimer (G Schofield)20-1
4-Balada Sale (CP Lemaire)10-1
5-Genten (C Williams)20-1
6-Mickdaam (C Soumillion)6-1
7-Daddy Long Legs (C O'Donoghue)7-1
8-Yang Tse Kiang (T Jarnet)14-1
9-Kinglet (F Dettori)8-1
10-Falls Of Lora (M Barzalona)10-1
11-Entifaadha (R Hills)12-1
12-Red Duke (T Queally)12-1
13-Wrote (R Moore)7-2
14-Helmet (K McEvoy)10-1

AEs
15-Mehdi 16-1
16-Surfer 16-1
17-Counterglow 14-1

[Racey]

As far as The La derby goes ...Mark Valeski and Cigar Street in a tight one.

[ten2oneormore]

Being the pps aren't out yet I obviously haven't gotten too deep into the Louisiana Derby but I was surprised at that Cigar Street was 7-2 in a 14 horse field off only a maiden win.I know it was impressive but I would think I'm going to end up being against him.At first glance I also thought Rousing Sermon would love the long stretch there.

[nijinski]

Originally Posted by Racey

As far as The La derby goes ...Mark Valeski and Cigar Street in a tight one.

Big test for Cigar Street but looks like one with a future . One of those maiden winners that could have a chance.
Hard to dismiss Z Dager and the Jones entry . Guess I'll be boxing three unless one stands out in the post parade for the win.

[nijinski]

Originally Posted by ten2oneormore

Being the pps aren't out yet I obviously haven't gotten too deep into the Louisiana Derby but I was surprised at that Cigar Street was 7-2 in a 14 horse field off only a maiden win.I know it was impressive but I would think I'm going to end up being against him.At first glance I also thought Rousing Sermon would love the long stretch there.

Go to Horse Racing About.com , on upper left of page click free pps .
Then go to Pletcher or any other breeder/trainer in that race . The free pps are available for several FG races Sunday. The La Derby is too.

[sam i am]

I will give a long look to Shared Property, if he is anything close to the ML he will be my key.

[tiger rose]

early picks for me in LA - jones entry,Z Dagar and Shared Property
UAE - Wrote,Daddy Long Legs,Mickdaam
can't leave C Soumillion out of any tri's or P3 in dubai
FL - not even worth betting on

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by ten2oneormore

Being the pps aren't out yet I obviously haven't gotten too deep into the Louisiana Derby but I was surprised at that Cigar Street was 7-2 in a 14 horse field off only a maiden win.I know it was impressive but I would think I'm going to end up being against him.At first glance I also thought Rousing Sermon would love the long stretch there.

I thought it was surprising also. I expect him to be 5-1ish. Speaking of maiden winners, I do think Arm Force w/Leparoux will take more money than 20-1. He has three stakes mounts next Saturday at the FG. I don't think the others will be heavy favorites. He must think he has a legit shot to win on one of the three.

[Pell Mell]

I'm looking forward to the LA Derby...I've been having great luck so far this year pedigree handicapping for the exotics...this race has got some really nice pedigrees that are going to be long odds..don't know exactly which I will use yet but the race looks promising for a big tri or super..

Originally Posted by sam i am

I will give a long look to Shared Property, if he is anything close to the ML he will be my key.

Ditto. Adding blinks, 3rd off... hopefully he rebounds off last.

The price horse in the UAE is Yang Tse Kiang imo, and I would expect Union Rags to roll on a fast GP track.

[IrishRail76]

You and I have the same top 5 finish order at the Florida Derby at Gulfstream.

There are a lot of graded stakes on that card, too. And, the purses on the races ($48.7K to $1,000,000.00) are going to trigger all kinds of tricky races.

With Union Rags taking the Barbaro strategy book, this will be fun.

[ten2oneormore]

Originally Posted by IrishRail76

You and I have the same top 5 finish order at the Florida Derby at Gulfstream.

There are a lot of graded stakes on that card, too. And, the purses on the races ($48.7K to $1,000,000.00) are going to trigger all kinds of tricky races.

With Union Rags taking the Barbaro strategy book, this will be fun.

They weren't intended to be the order of finish but now that you wrote this it looks like the likely result.At least the top 4 but from a wagering perspective its best to pass the race or go with Take Charge Indy if the track comes up wet.He ran really well last time vs El Padrino and that was with Borel deciding to open up 3+ lengths before they even hit the stretch.Gotta think he will have a little more fight with a patient ride.

The rest of the card does look good.Like Shimmering Moment in the 12th



As for the UAE Derby I'm thinking Daddy Long Legs is going to run big and Wrote is gonna take the money of the O'Briens so he should be a nice price.

[IrishRail76]

Originally Posted by ten2oneormore

They weren't intended to be the order of finish but now that you wrote this it looks like the likely result.At least the top 4 but from a wagering perspective its best to pass the race or go with Take Charge Indy if the track comes up wet.He ran really well last time vs El Padrino and that was with Borel deciding to open up 3+ lengths before they even hit the stretch.Gotta think he will have a little more fight with a patient ride.

I apologize, you are right. Those were my top 5 picks in no particular order. And, we are going to see already low Morning Lines getting beat down into chalk dust. A wet track, especially in FLA or LA or Arkansas, and having Borel on speed dial, would be a great race.

As far as the LA Derby, most people don't realize that racing in Cajun Country is like "welcome to mudfest." Plus, the local talent usually has no "long term strategy" for the KY Derby. They come in quietly and take the money and run.

My family has had a box at Oaklawn for 3 generations and we also love Louisiana. I've seen California synthetic super horses get on that muddy southern dirt and get blindsided by locals on the rail. It adds variety to the KY Derby Trail.

I am hoping for a great weekend.

[jefftune]

Originally Posted by Valuist

I thought it was surprising also. I expect him to be 5-1ish. Speaking of maiden winners, I do think Arm Force w/Leparoux will take more money than 20-1. He has three stakes mounts next Saturday at the FG. I don't think the others will be heavy favorites. He must think he has a legit shot to win on one of the three.

I am really liking ARM FORCE. He won easily last out with the addition of blinkers and I like that Leparoux is sticking with him. Note the bullet work since his last race. Trainer Eoin Harty can get them ready for a big race.

[Elliott Sidewater]

Equibase's preview page for the Florida Derby says that the purse is $100,000,000!

That's enough to get an owner to pull his horse off the plane to Dubai.