Horses that break though the gate and are NOT scratched

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by pandy

Another mishap that's interesting to follow is when a horse loses the rider and finishes first. I've hit quite a few longshot winners betting these horses back.

This phenomena deserves its own thread.

This is a tricky one to figure. On one hand the horse is getting a tremendous weight advantage of over 100 lbs. On the other hand it's losing the benefit of a guided ride such as urging and handling turns, traffic,etc.
I once followed a horse that lost it's rider and guided itself beautifully - immediately going to the lead, staying on the rail around the turn and pulling away to win by over a dozen lengths. In subsequent races it ran very poorly.
One could say that this difference was due to the influence of weight but yet I've seen a lot of horses who lost their rider, were competitive types who needed no urging and gave themselves a good trip but still lost despite the tremendous weight off. Hard to evaluate this factor.

[Tom]

Pink Loyd, WO Bold Venture, broke through, ran.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Tom

Pink Loyd, WO Bold Venture, broke through, ran.

That one was ugly. The horse took off dragging the jockey behind and they said the jock was lying motionless on the ground when they quickly took the camera off. Bad public relations to let the public see what happened.
I'm really surprised they let the horse run since he ran off and had to chased and caught by outrider. That one should have been scratched.

[Suff]

I was stunned they put that horse in. Breaking through gate is one thing, but he kicked up, tossed & dragged the Jockey 10+ Feet outside the gate, then runs off.

the 3/5 Favorite too! That was beyond words. They turned the camera away and put that horse in within a minute or 2.... Criminal. 3 to f'ng 5.

[bobphilo]

Finished 5th. In the chart it only said "broke through and lost rider". Nothing about him running off. Makes you wonder how reliable charts are in reporting breakthroughs for studies. This should not count as just a breakthrough.

[Tom]

At 3:10...watch the great catch by the Asst, Starter.
Then it's off to the races! Local FL horse takes a Gr1

YouTube

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Finished 5th. In the chart it only said "broke through and lost rider". Nothing about him running off. Makes you wonder how reliable charts are in reporting breakthroughs for studies. This should not count as just a breakthrough.

Broke though the gate, lost the rider, reloaded and was declared a starter

That meets the Criteria set forth.

Not only that, I make a LOT of money laying Pick Lloyd becuase of the breakthrough on the exchange.

First chalkie on my spreadsheet.

Allan

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Finished 5th. In the chart it only said "broke through and lost rider". Nothing about him running off. Makes you wonder how reliable charts are in reporting breakthroughs for studies. This should not count as just a breakthrough.

Since it will be only verified breakthroughs, and only reported on this thread.

That will eliminate having to look at the charts.

Pink Lloyd is a classic example. Should have been scratched.

But nooooo.....

Allan

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Since it will be only verified breakthroughs, and only reported on this thread.

That will eliminate having to look at the charts.

Pink Lloyd is a classic example. Should have been scratched.

But nooooo.....

Allan

Agree. Terrible non-scratch.

This will eliminate the inaccurate information from the charts not distinguishing just breakthroughs from breakthroughs with run offs.

[Tom]

Track Date R# Horse W Comment
AP 08/12/2018 2 Ava Atticus broke through gate, lugged out bump st, inside, no match
CBY 08/10/2018 4 Lovanskol $5.20 broke through gate, tracked rail, early move 1/2, held sway
CT 08/17/2018 6 Rock On broke through prior,off pace 3&4p,little response
DMR 08/05/2018 6 Tyfosha broke through gate, speed, dueled, inside, fought back 1/8,wkened
EVD 08/09/2018 5 Alabama Slim broke through gate, through early
MD 08/17/2018 8 Sedin broke through gate, vied, faltered and was eased across the wire
MTH 08/12/2018 7 Doodle Hopper broke through gate, chased outside, tired
PID 08/28/2018 4 Diamond Luckie broke through gate pre-start, bumped start, four wide much of way
SAR 08/24/2018 7 Time Warp broke through gate,ran off for 1/8,brsdh brk,chased,4p turn,tired
SAR 08/27/2018 4 T Loves a Fight broke through gate,tracked outside,chsd3-4p turn,5p1/4,tired
SUF 07/08/2018 8 Racy Embrace broke through gate pre-start, saved ground chasing, tired

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Tom

Track Date R# Horse W Comment
AP 08/12/2018 2 Ava Atticus broke through gate, lugged out bump st, inside, no match
CBY 08/10/2018 4 Lovanskol $5.20 broke through gate, tracked rail, early move 1/2, held sway
CT 08/17/2018 6 Rock On broke through prior,off pace 3&4p,little response
DMR 08/05/2018 6 Tyfosha broke through gate, speed, dueled, inside, fought back 1/8,wkened
EVD 08/09/2018 5 Alabama Slim broke through gate, through early
MD 08/17/2018 8 Sedin broke through gate, vied, faltered and was eased across the wire
MTH 08/12/2018 7 Doodle Hopper broke through gate, chased outside, tired
PID 08/28/2018 4 Diamond Luckie broke through gate pre-start, bumped start, four wide much of way
SAR 08/24/2018 7 Time Warp broke through gate,ran off for 1/8,brsdh brk,chased,4p turn,tired
SAR 08/27/2018 4 T Loves a Fight broke through gate,tracked outside,chsd3-4p turn,5p1/4,tired
SUF 07/08/2018 8 Racy Embrace broke through gate pre-start, saved ground chasing, tired

Horses that broke through and ran off like Time Warp and Pink Loyd should not be counted the same as horses that only broke through. They do not belong in same database as horses that just breakthrough. Running off is a confounding variable adding a known disadvantage to breaking through.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Broke though the gate, lost the rider, reloaded and was declared a starter

That meets the Criteria set forth.

Not only that, I make a LOT of money laying Pick Lloyd becuase of the breakthrough on the exchange.

First chalkie on my spreadsheet.

Allan

Glad you make some money but for purposes of the study such data is tainted because you don't know if losing was caused by breakthrough or running off. Horses running off after breaking through have an additional confounding variable that is a known disadvantage. Data containing a confounding variable do not meet criteria and do not belong in database if just testing for breakthroughs. Including such data totally invalidates any study using said data.

[Tom]

Of course you can put them all in and then query out what you want to look at. Why limit your scope when it thake essentially no work to have ti all?

Just giving the OP what he asked for.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Tom

Of course you can put them all in and then query out what you want to look at. Why limit your scope when it thake essentially no work to have ti all?

Just giving the OP what he asked for.

I understand. You're just giving the researcher what he is asking for and it's up to him to exclude horses running off, unless of course, he is doing a study on the the effects of running off. You can gather all the data you want but you have to be selective and use the data specific to the variable being studied. I'm just pointing out the danger of the researcher using data with confounding variables. If one is doing a study on breakthroughs' effect on performance you can't include data that is skewed by a confounding variable, such as running off, which has its own effect on performance. You won't know if your measuring the effect of breakthroughs or running off. Any basic stats text can explain the undesired effect of using data not filtered for confounding variables.

I have this concern because the researcher gave an example of the effect of breakthroughs in which he used data contaminated by containing the confounding variable of running off. One has filter out confounding variables or the results will not be valid, which would be very disappointing as I am interested, as I'm sure the researcher is, in the real effects of breakthroughs as shown by a valid study using the appropriate data.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Tom

Of course you can put them all in and then query out what you want to look at. Why limit your scope when it thake essentially no work to have ti all?

Just giving the OP what he asked for.

Actually Tom, to be fair, you did a good job in your in your data gathering since the compete information, including "running off', is essential in showing whether that confounding variable occurred. This is both useful in identifying data with a confounding variable as well as doing a separate study on the effect of running off itself. My only concern was how the data was going to be used.