Do past performances not at today's distance tell you anything?

[Pell Mell]

Almost all horses are distance oriented...that is, they prefer certain distances..there are a lot of 6f horses that are not quick enough to get into a 5-5 1/2f race and the reverse is true except the quicker ones can't last for 6f...and up and down the line it goes...except, of course, champs that can run any distance..JMO

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

A fine example is The Lumber Guy in the Wood Memorial, the pps can be found here: http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm Scroll to Pletcher, then Wood Memorial. Another example is La Bernadin, today at AQ, race six.

The Lumber Guy runs two sprints. In his first he is the early speed and gets the last fraction in 24.1; same in his second sprint, the internal fraction in 24.2 (bobbled at the start). His early speed coupled with his late drive qualifies him to stretch out in distance. Today he goes from an R 75k 7f to the G1 1M 9f Wood. Did the trainer intend for him to run in the Wood, or did his ability dictate they run him there? Always difficult to know if sprinters can get distance, so I check the Dosage to get an idea if the horse is a distance fit. The Dosage for The Lumber Guy is DI 4.78 CD 1.04, the Dosage for 9f is DI 2.87 CD 0.65. Doesn’t fit; he is a sprinter not a router.

No single handicapping factor stands alone. His early speed, late drive and Dosage must be considered along with other handicapping factors: class, condition, pace, bias, jockey, trainer and weight among many others. Gotta’ figure The Lumber Guy is in top condition showing three sharp 5f tr.t works and is gonna’ set the pace on a speed bias with a jockey hitting 19% and a trainer hitting 31% - he picks up 7 lbs. There is no doubt he has the potential to wire this field should he get an easy lead . . . which leads us to his class and how he compares to the competition. I think Robert Fisher said it best, “The Lumber Guy in a tough spot for NY bred w/ 2 lifetime starts.” He goes from a Restricted Stakes to a G1, running against one of the best horses in the country in Gemologist. Gemologist may not be as fast as The Lumber Guy, but he certainly outclasses him.

Will class trump speed or are they the same thing? Should be interesting to see how the different handicapping factors play out. That extra 7 pounds might make all the difference. If it goes like most of the other Derby preps, early speed is caught late by the class.

Should be fun to watch.

AQ race six, Le Bernardin (Bernardini / AP Indy) wins and pays $14.20.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by raybo

Different distances than today's distance, IMO, should not be used for comparison/rating purposes, but they should be analyzed regarding form cycle. Trainer intent is often tied to these "off distance" races, using the race as a conditioning activity.

Agree with Raybo and also Windoor here...trainer intent is very important when assessing a cutback or stretchout.

[pondman]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Agree with Raybo and also Windoor here...trainer intent is very important when assessing a cutback or stretchout.

+1

I wouldn't stop there. Many of the best values in racing include changes is distance, surface, and tracks all at once. And then throw in a layoff...

[Broad Brush]

Predicting what a horse will do at one distance based strictly on their performance at a different distance is usually not a good idea.

However, there are ways I do use this info to find many good plays.

What I have learned is to use the difference in the Beyer Figs between the
two distances when horses go from 2yo to 3yo or Dirt to Turf.

To explain: Lets say at two a horse ran two races at 6F and had Beyer Figs
of 55 and 58. Then this horse was stretched to a mile and improved to
a Beyer Fig of 75. So this horse is approx. 15-20 points better at a mile.

Now this horse has his 3yo debut at 6F and runs a Beyer of 68.
To me this horse is now capable of a Beyer Fig of 86 to 90 when
they stretch him to a mile.

Many times you can get a good price on a horse like this because the highest
Fig he has ever run is 75.

Last year at Belmont there was a horse named "Rocky World" who ran beyers
of 45 to 50 on the Dirt and improved to a 68 when moved to the Turf when
he was two. At three, he ran in several Dirt races and got Figs around 65.
Then they put him on the Turf against horses who were running 75s.
If he improves the same amount that he did at two, he would be right there.
He won and paid $146 to win.

I hope this helps you find some winners.

[Light]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

.and I trust the shortening-up router even less.

This is becoming your mantra. My mantra is that right now, my most profitable angle is horses switching from routes to sprints. I can practically earn a living just betting these. Winning at 40% with an ROI though the roof. Just caught a $48 one in the last race at GG today.Waited the whole card for him.

I can't reveal the technique but it is very easy and simple to determine if a horse can cut back in distance and be there.Data basing helped me find these types. No, the horse doesn't have to show speed in a route. In fact this GG one was way back at the first 2 calls. Capped a $3.2K Pk4 for 50 cents.

[Elliott Sidewater]

Light said that he waited on his router cutting back to a sprint, waited for the whole card. I think that's a very important aspect of the route-sprint cutback. If you play too many of them you're doomed, but those few that are in the right spot, the right situation, are gold waiting to be mined. I am not a database handicapper, but some of the common features of my better route to sprint winners are:

1. when a horse showed a previous winning route to sprint pattern; but only in its lifetime record, not in the visible past performances.

2. turf route to dirt sprint, where the horse is clearly better on dirt

3. when today's distance is 6.5 or 7 furlongs.

4. when a horse has multiple sprint and multiple route wins in his lifetime record, AND its last two wins were one route and one sprint. We don't want a horse who cannot sprint at this stage of his career and this filter seems to work well as sufficient proof.

5. for reasons I still don't quite understand, a horse who won his last race (a route) by 5 or more lengths.

When I say winners maybe I misspoke a bit, what I really meant to say is winning money with the route-sprint pattern. I've probably done as well with plays that finished second at good odds as I have with those that finished first, because I am primarily a win and exacta bettor.

For any route to sprint play, I prefer (but don't absolutely demand) that the trainer is someone I believe to know what he's doing. I make exceptions here, but want higher odds when I do. I do wish Light could have been a little more forthcoming here, I would love to know how his factors match up with mine. My list is not a complete one either, but not because I'm holding back, it's mentally stored in my head and not on a computer. I am a pencil and paper handicapper like Thaskalos, but I use computers for record keeping and research.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Light

This is becoming your mantra. My mantra is that right now, my most profitable angle is horses switching from routes to sprints. I can practically earn a living just betting these. Winning at 40% with an ROI though the roof. Just caught a $48 one in the last race at GG today.Waited the whole card for him.

I can't reveal the technique but it is very easy and simple to determine if a horse can cut back in distance and be there.Data basing helped me find these types. No, the horse doesn't have to show speed in a route. In fact this GG one was way back at the first 2 calls. Capped a $3.2K Pk4 for 50 cents.

I am always happy when I see people having success at this game...and I sincerely hope that your good fortune continues.

I never meant to imply that there was no money to be made betting on horses that are switching distances; I only meant that, with all the races currently at our disposal, there is no need for anyone to play races that they are not totally comfortable with.

I am planning to venture into the world of computer assisted handicapping soon, and when I do, perhaps I'll have the time to expand my horizons a little as well...

[Robert Goren]

Speed Rating at routes are useless for a horse sprinting. So are Sprint SRs for horse going a route. That being said, some horses switch distances all the time and win. The Little Guy is always raving about some horse turning backing and fair amount of them do win. At minor league 4 and 5 furlong ovals, front running horses stretch out from sprints and win at routes a lot, but not so much at mile tracks. You just have to go by other things other than SRs in wrong distance races. To me it is like trying to use a dirt SR in a turf race. JMO

[cj]

Originally Posted by Light

This is becoming your mantra. My mantra is that right now, my most profitable angle is horses switching from routes to sprints. I can practically earn a living just betting these. Winning at 40% with an ROI though the roof. Just caught a $48 one in the last race at GG today.Waited the whole card for him.

I can't reveal the technique but it is very easy and simple to determine if a horse can cut back in distance and be there.Data basing helped me find these types. No, the horse doesn't have to show speed in a route. In fact this GG one was way back at the first 2 calls. Capped a $3.2K Pk4 for 50 cents.

This wasn't his mantra at all. You quoted a very small part of his post out of context, but using it for another of your redboards was great.

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I don't trust the sprinter to reproduce his best speed figures when he goes long...and I trust the shortening-up router even less.

When my highest-rated horses present distance concerns...I keep the money in my pocket.

I doubt you bet this horse based on his lone speed figure the first time he ran, and he certainly wasn't anyone's highest rated because of it.

The horses interior 6f fraction, however, was better than all the last out speed figures of the sprinters. But that isn't what Thaskalos said.

[raybo]

I think most of these distance/surface changes, resulting in good performances, for the most part, fall into the "form" category. A trainer moving his horse from one distance to another, especially when the new distance was handled well by the horse in the past, is a key to current form improvement, resulting in good current form, or simply going back to a distance that suits the horse better.

Turf to dirt, or vice versa, same thing. The 2 surfaces offer different types of conditioning. Many trainers will throw a turf race, or 2, into a horse's race pattern, knowing the horse doesn't perform well on turf, then immediately moves the horse back to dirt, and vice versa.

This is why I mentioned earlier that "off distance" races should not be used for ratings/grading but rather for form cycle analysis.

[raybo]

Eventually, I assume Thaskalos will introduce class changes, and their various purposes, coupled with these distance/surface changes, which is a more complex scenario for the player to digest properly. Again, the player that can "think like a trainer" will gain much knowledge, and edge, about the reasons for these changes and the intent of the trainer for today's race, or a future race.

[Tom]

To explain: Lets say at two a horse ran two races at 6F and had Beyer Figs
of 55 and 58. Then this horse was stretched to a mile and improved to
a Beyer Fig of 75. So this horse is approx. 15-20 points better at a mile.

Now this horse has his 3yo debut at 6F and runs a Beyer of 68.
To me this horse is now capable of a Beyer Fig of 86 to 90 when
they stretch him to a mile.

Not to get of topic too far, but I like this thinking when horses go from dirt-turf-poly.

[Light]

Originally Posted by cj

This wasn't his mantra at all. You quoted a very small part of his post out of context, but using it for another of your redboards was great.

You said the same thing when I criticized TLG for not liking Flat Bold (another horse shortening distance). What you miss is that I am not using one statement by either Thask or TLG to point out when they are wrong. I am saying that in other posts made by both of them (that you may have NOT READ),they said the same thing. For example this is the 3rd or 4th time I have read Thask say he does not think much of horses cutting back in distance. Since he,like TLG,has a certain following here,I am challenging the myth he is spreading because it is definitely not true for me and others.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Light

Since he,like TLG,has a certain following here,I am challenging the myth he is spreading because it is definitely not true for me and others.

So once again, it all comes down to jealousy. They "have a following" (which may or may not be true), and you do not, so you must drop trow and take a dump on them.

It's rather unbecoming, or haven't you figured that part out yet?

There are no "myths" being spread. He is talking about what works for HIM and what doesn't....FOR HIM. He has made THIS POINT abundantly clear.

When you finally come on here to explain what works for you and HOW, then you can lecture others.

You have been very fond in the past of pointing out your past success in contests here...why don't you show a little respect to Thaskalos, whose team WON last year's PAIHL and currently sits in SECOND PLACE in this year's renewal.