Handicapping Method

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Are you fishing for something here Cincy?

No.After being not happy about this the other day I reread it and realized you took one statement out of half a dozen posts and used it to your own ends.Everything posted after that had nothing remotely to do with my contents as a whole.

[Dave Schwartz]

LOL - Okay, whatever you say.

[shouldacoulda]

Originally Posted by windoor

As I pride myself on form cycles, I will have to take a special interest in this track when the time comes.

I have special Excel program that is set up to do just that.

I will take the challenge

Regards,

Windoor

I have played Mountaineer quite a bit. Does your computer program account for the altitude above sea level? The thinner mountain air has folded many a "should be there" shipper from lower altitudes. By the same token I have seen horses that don't show much there come back to Belmont and totally dominate back at sea level. Most cappers would see lack luster results there and think the horse won't do much with a poor performance at a minor track. Then there is that big sweeping turn at one end of the oval if you can call it an oval. It is truly a unique venue.

[shouldacoulda]

Originally Posted by Tom

What about good old eye-ball capping?
You look at the PPs and never use a pencil or a computer?
Most people I see at the track, when I go, is this group.

Form in one hand, beer in the other.

If you have the form in one hand and pen/pencil in the other how could you hold a beer? I stopped using a pen and pencil when I stopped printing PP's. I also traded in the beer for coffee. Me and my buddy stopped drinking almost a year ago and Budweiser slipped from #2 spot to third in sales I have sheets from 2 years ago. I use them to start fires in the wood stove. As for record keeping my ADW does that for me. If I have to put more money in I'm not doing that good.

[FrankieFigs]

Most of the time, I prefer to print PP's so I can mark them up. I also do some pedigree research for turf and maiden races, so the computer and Internet are an invaluable tool I also use.

[windoor]

Originally Posted by shouldacoulda

I have played Mountaineer quite a bit. Does your computer program account for the altitude above sea level? The thinner mountain air has folded many a "should be there" shipper from lower altitudes. By the same token I have seen horses that don't show much there come back to Belmont and totally dominate back at sea level. Most cappers would see lack luster results there and think the horse won't do much with a poor performance at a minor track. Then there is that big sweeping turn at one end of the oval if you can call it an oval. It is truly a unique venue.

No, it does not take into consideration the altitude, but it is base on sound handicapping principles that applies to all of horse racing.

The key, is to know in which order of importance is needed (the numbers have hinges) for each Track, Type of race, Sex, Distance, Class, Surface, and Time of Year. There's that magic number (Seven) again.

I'll start with these, and hope history will repeat itself.

A decent odd selection and a high hit selection should keep me from getting bored

From the 2nd quarter of 2011 for MNR:

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 719.80 520.40 458.80
Bet -496.00 -496.00 -496.00
Gain 223.80 24.40 -37.20

Wins 65 105 131
Plays 248 248 248
PCT .2621 .4234 .5282

ROI 1.4512 1.0492 0.9250
Avg Mut 11.07 4.96 3.50


Ending BankRoll: $32,380.00
Starting BankRoll: $10,000.00
High BankRoll: $35,920.00
Low BankRoll: $8,800.00
Bet Percentage: 0.0500
Max Bet: 200.00





Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 478.00 444.20 412.00
Bet -378.00 -378.00 -378.00
Gain 100.00 66.20 34.00

Wins 75 113 134
Plays 189 189 189
PCT .3968 .5979 .7090

ROI 1.2646 1.1751 1.0899
Avg Mut 6.37 3.93 3.07



Ending BankRoll: $20,000.00
Starting BankRoll: $10,000.00
High BankRoll: $20,740.00
Low BankRoll: $6,840.00
Bet Percentage: 0.0500
Max Bet: 200.00



Regards,

Windoor

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by windoor

The key, is to know in which order of importance is needed (the numbers have hinges) for each Track, Type of race, Sex, Distance, Class, Surface, and Time of Year.



From the 2nd quarter of 2011 for MNR:

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 719.80 520.40 458.80
Bet -496.00 -496.00 -496.00
Gain 223.80 24.40 -37.20

Wins 65 105 131
Plays 248 248 248
PCT .2621 .4234 .5282

ROI 1.4512 1.0492 0.9250
Avg Mut 11.07 4.96 3.50


Ending BankRoll: $32,380.00
Starting BankRoll: $10,000.00
High BankRoll: $35,920.00
Low BankRoll: $8,800.00
Bet Percentage: 0.0500
Max Bet: 200.00





Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 478.00 444.20 412.00
Bet -378.00 -378.00 -378.00
Gain 100.00 66.20 34.00

Wins 75 113 134
Plays 189 189 189
PCT .3968 .5979 .7090

ROI 1.2646 1.1751 1.0899
Avg Mut 6.37 3.93 3.07



Ending BankRoll: $20,000.00
Starting BankRoll: $10,000.00
High BankRoll: $20,740.00
Low BankRoll: $6,840.00
Bet Percentage: 0.0500
Max Bet: 200.00



Regards,

Windoor

No doubt impressive. But questions arise. Why just the one quarter's worth of results? And can your method be laid out in a (however complex) system of steps and guidelines? Or is it a work in progress as you tinker with different mixes and various pecking orders of certain handicapping factors? If it's the latter, would it be unreasonable to assume these results have been backfitted as part of your research? Or was there indeed a method settled on beforehand, in which case you actually wagered on these horses??

No insult intended, sir. You seem knowledgable, but I'm always skeptical when results are offered up after the fact. And your post raIses more questions than it answers. Apologies if some earlier post of yours has covered these points.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Thaskalos,

Truthfully, I see myself as a P&P handicapper, albeit with very powerful "worksheets" in front of me. I didn't before this thread but when one is making manual selections, even using a hard-wired system, I see it as P&P.

I just use the computer to do as much of the grunt work as possible.


Al,



I am sorry, but if you were talking to me, I do not understand the reference. Trip handicapping is nothing I have ever considered.

Dave, if you are a p/p handicapper, I am a hoochie coochie dancer. I wish you and most of the other people in this thread would quit dragging this thread so far off topic. Is there any sense of reality here?

[ranchwest]

Let's back up and get a definition here. A pencil and paper handicapper is someone who obtains a Racing Form (or similar past performances) and then uses nothing more than a #2 pencil, a Big Chief tablet, a pair of scissors and a binder(s). The PP's are traditional, no computer drill downs, etc.

Now, how do you recommend handicapping within these parameters?

[Dave Schwartz]

Well, clearly that isn't me.

I guess I think of a P&P guy as a guy that makes manual selections. I stand corrected.

[bob60566]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Let's back up and get a definition here. A pencil and paper handicapper is someone who obtains a Racing Form (or similar past performances) and then uses nothing more than a #2 pencil, a Big Chief tablet, a pair of scissors and a binder(s). The PP's are traditional, no computer drill downs, etc.

Now, how do you recommend handicapping within these parameters?

How do you recommend i get the traditional PP other than to download them so i can handicap.

Mac

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by bob60566

How do you recommend i get the traditional PP other than to download them so i can handicap.

Mac

Go to a newsstand and buy the form...like I do.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by bob60566

How do you recommend i get the traditional PP other than to download them so i can handicap.

Mac

I didn't say no computer, I said no computer drill downs -- I was referring to Formulator type programs that allow queries beyond the traditional PP's.

[lamboguy]

i don't use number's, and i don't buy racing forms. the only races i play are maiden and layoff horses.

i have a team that watches works in different tracks throughout the east coast and also fairhill. if the horse is special i leave my house and go watch the work.

along with that i keep track of about 600 horse every year that have gone through our training program, whether i own the horse or someone else does. everyone of those horses are on my data base and i follow each and everyone of the works that the horses have after they leave ocala. what i look for is something that the horse does better than than the last work. i also make sure the horse eats up after his breeze and how much water the horse drinks after his works.

if someone has a better system using numbers and racing forms i am here to learn that system.

[bob60566]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Go to a newsstand and buy the form...like I do.

The nearest one to me is 28km at OTB and is a machine that you put in $3.50 to get a double sided computer print out of the DRF PP.
Now if all the handicappers lived in the large cities this could be a option and good excercise everyday to find a newsstand.
Also i prefer Bris over DRF but i have never seen Bris PP sold at newsstands.

Mac