Which Long Shot

[Aner]

Elp 9

Maybe #5, #9
Pass #10

[Aner]

Lrl 11

Pass #5, #10

[Aner]

Bel 10

Maybe #4
Pass #3, #5, #8, #12

[Aner]

Originally Posted by TheOracle

Hey Aner

Not sure if you maybe'd the #1 in the 5th at Belmont
He came through paying $15.20 across the board

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...=159064&page=2

Did you score bro

Sorry no. I'm just concentrating on morning line 15:1 or higher and I miss any lower odds horses who creep into range.

[Aner]

7/3/20

Maybe Horses

13 bets (2 hit board)

Bel 4---#10 30.00, 6.70, 5.40
Elp 9--#5----------, -----, 3.80


Win 30.00 -26.00 = +4.00
Place 6.70 -26.00 = minus 19.30
Show 9.20 - 26.00 = minus 14.80

Pass Horses

43 bets (3 hit board)

Bel 5-----#8 -------, -------, 6.40
Lrl 8 -----#5 -------, 19.40, 7.80
Bel 10----#8 -------, -------, 15.20

Win 0.00 - 86.00 = minus 86.00
Place 19.40 - 86.00 = minus 66.60
Show 29.40 -86.00 = minus 54.60

[Aner]

I'm only going to measure win bets from now on. Payoffs for place and show on long-shots are notoriously low.

Overall (2 days)

Maybe bets:

2/24 = 8% frequency

+22.60/48.00 = 47% profit

Pass bets:

1/75 = 1% F

-106.20/150.00 = 71% loss

[TheOracle]

Originally Posted by Aner

Sorry no. I'm just concentrating on morning line 15:1 or higher and I miss any lower odds horses who creep into range.

Ok I keep track of Morning Line odds at NYC race tracks so Aqu, Bel and Sar

I will see what 15-1 and higher Morning Lines have done at Belmont over the years and the ROI for win, across the board and also show for that group

[Aner]

I would be interested in that data. Thanks.

Originally Posted by TheOracle

Ok I keep track of Morning Line odds at NYC race tracks so Aqu, Bel and Sar

I will see what 15-1 and higher Morning Lines have done at Belmont over the years and the ROI for win, across the board and also show for that group

[TheOracle]

Originally Posted by Aner

I would be interested in that data. Thanks.

Hey Aner

I just took the 2 days into July of this year for ML odds greater than or equal to 15-1 at Belmont

1	07-02-2020	2nd race	3	True Gold (NY)		Clm	Turf Firm	1 M	C Baker		20/1#				
2	07-02-2020	2nd race	4	Curlins Legacy (NY)	Clm	Turf Firm	1 M	P J Kelly	20/1#	S			12.2
3	07-02-2020	4th race	4	Bella Invasion (NY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	R Persaud	30/1#				
4	07-02-2020	4th race	8	Two Graces (NY)		Clm	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	J T Ryerson	20/1#				
5	07-02-2020	5th race	2	Peaches and Spice (NY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	J N Quiles	50/1#				
6	07-02-2020	5th race	3	Taylers the Boss (NY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	A Arriaga	20/1#	S			6.5
7	07-02-2020	5th race	4	Princess Mikayah (NY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	M A Simmonds	15/1#				
8	07-02-2020	6th race	1	Liveyourbeastlife (KY)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	1 1/16 MJ R Abreu	20/1#	S			6.2
9	07-02-2020	6th race	5	Mr. Shortandsimple (KY)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	1 1/16 MR R Rodriguez	30/1#				
10	07-02-2020	6th race	6	Liams Fire (VA)		Alw Op CDirt Fast	1 1/16 MA Chichakly	30/1#				
11	07-02-2020	7th race	1	Discreet Lover (FL)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	1 M	U St. Lewis	20/1#				
12	07-02-2020	7th race	4	No Dozing (KY)		Alw Op CDirt Fast	1 M	A Delacour	15/1#				
13	07-02-2020	8th race	2	Fetching (NY)		Stakes	Turf Firm	1 M	M E Casse	15/1#				
14	07-02-2020	9th race	3	Gen Z (NY)		Mdn Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/8 M	J W Ferraro	15/1#				
15	07-02-2020	9th race	5	Here Comes Bubbles (NY)	Mdn Clm	Turf Firm	1 1/8 M	N Henry		30/1#				
16	07-03-2020	2nd race	5	Cobra Sophie (ON)	Clm	Turf Firm	1 M	M Kantarmaci	20/1#				
17	07-03-2020	2nd race	6	Offlee Irish (NY)	Clm	Turf Firm	1 M	J Falk		30/1#				
18	07-03-2020	2nd race	8	Annie Rocks (FL)	Clm	Turf Firm	1 M	E J DeLauro	15/1#	S			6.3
19	07-03-2020	3rd race	4	Party in the Sand (NY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	6.5 FurlJ T Ryerson	15/1#				
20	07-03-2020	4th race	5	Gloriously (KY)		Str Alw	Turf Firm	6 Furl	J A Jerkens	15/1#				
21	07-03-2020	4th race	6	Overtime Olivia (NY)	Str Alw	Turf Firm	6 Furl	A Arriaga	50/1#				
22	07-03-2020	4th race	9	Sea Sparkle (ON)	Str Alw	Turf Firm	6 Furl	C Goberdhan	20/1#				
23	07-03-2020	4th race	10	Tiple (IRE)		Str Alw	Turf Firm	6 Furl	P M Serpe	15/1#	W	30.0	6.7	5.4
24	07-03-2020	5th race	8	Preamble (KY)		Clm	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	M Miceli	30/1#	S			6.4
25	07-03-2020	5th race	9	Seethisquick (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	D Dharamjit	20/1#				
26	07-03-2020	6th race	2	Super Twenty Seven (KY)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	1 1/16 MO Noda		30/1#				
27	07-03-2020	6th race	3	Bachelors Bait (KY)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	1 1/16 MM R Matz	30/1#				
28	07-03-2020	7th race	2	Arrietty (NY)		Mdn SpclTurf Firm	6 Furl	H J Bond	15/1#				
29	07-03-2020	7th race	4	Big Als Gal (NY)	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	6 Furl	C J Englehart	15/1#				
30	07-03-2020	7th race	5	Tuck In (NY)		Mdn SpclTurf Firm	6 Furl	J W Ferraro	15/1#				
31	07-03-2020	8th race	8	Forever Wicked (NY)	Alw	Dirt Fast	1 M	D Dharamjit	30/1#				
32	07-03-2020	10th race	3	Beyond the Stars (NY)	Mdn Clm	Turf Good	6 Furl	J W Ferraro	30/1#				
33	07-03-2020	10th race	4	Fivestar Bandit (NY)	Mdn Clm	Turf Good	6 Furl	C Baker		20/1#				
34	07-03-2020	10th race	5	Jet for Andy (NY)	Mdn Clm	Turf Good	6 Furl	R G Davis	15/1#				
35	07-03-2020	10th race	8	Lorcan (NY)		Mdn Clm	Turf Good	6 Furl	B N Levine	20/1#	S			15.2
36	07-03-2020	10th race	12	Rapide Franey (NY)	Mdn Clm	Turf Good	6 Furl	C J Englehart	15/1#				

ML Odds		Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return						
gt or = 15-1	36	1	0	6	2.7%	$30	$72	$-42	-59%
						
						WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
						19.4%	$94.9	$216	$-121.1	-57%	58.2

So far the group is only winning at 2.7% and in the money only 19.4% of the time and not much in terms of ROI

[Aner]

Thanks for the data. It is in line with Schwarz's information.

[Aner]

7/4/20

GP 2

Maybe #3
Pass #4

[Aner]

Lrl 1

Maybe #11
Pass #5, #6, #9

[Aner]

GP 3

Maybe #2

[TheOracle]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...93#post2627393

[Aner]

Bel 1

Pass #3, #5, #6, #10, #11