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Old 09-18-2020, 01:19 PM   #106
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I smell an injury
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Old 09-18-2020, 02:41 PM   #107
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owners dont make the best handicappers most times.
Especially when they also have a dog in the proverbial fight.
On the other hand, TTL faced the deepest field of his career thus far, and on a track he is now 0-2 on. Those sound like more plausible, or perhaps "article friendly " reasons... or at least they read less like sour grapes.
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Old 09-18-2020, 05:39 PM   #108
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The only thing I can say is there's still plenty of money to be made trip handicapping when so many people believe chasing 22 and change while 5 on the first turn is 'perfect position' and then he's supposed to draw away like a wonder horse in the stretch. Granted Bob is great and his horse ran a peak effort in the Derby but this loss was more about the difference in trips. Personally I'd ditch Franco too, you don't heave your weight around like that asking for a lead switch, that's just ham-handed IMO. He'd ride nothing for me after seeing that.
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Old 09-19-2020, 04:32 PM   #109
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The Preakness seems less and less likely. Interesting comments from Knowlton on 4 year old campaign - no apparent interest in going overseas.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...aws-race-plans
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Old 09-19-2020, 05:15 PM   #110
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The Preakness seems less and less likely. Interesting comments from Knowlton on 4 year old campaign - no apparent interest in going overseas.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...aws-race-plans
I guess it comes down to what they want to prioritize, short term or long term. If they really care about BC at age 4, they might want to bail right now and rest up for the Pegasus. 3yos that run through the triple crown series and then target the Classic at age 3 are usually all but done by Q4 of their 4yo year.
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Old 09-19-2020, 08:10 PM   #111
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I guess it comes down to what they want to prioritize, short term or long term. If they really care about BC at age 4, they might want to bail right now and rest up for the Pegasus. 3yos that run through the triple crown series and then target the Classic at age 3 are usually all but done by Q4 of their 4yo year.
This year is arguably not as arduous as far as Triple Crown's go: later on the calendar, Belmont reduced from 12f to 9f, diluted fields (mostly due to injury of several top 3yos) and much greater spacing between races.

Regardless, it shouldn't be an issue for a truly elite horse. While some top horses were spent by the end of the 4yo year as you said (e.g., Easy Goer, Sunday Silence, Seeking The Gold) a large proportion were simply retired to stud early (Forty Niner, A.P. Indy, American Pharoah, etc.).

Alysheba, Unbridled, Medaglia D'Oro, Curlin, California Chrome, and Mucho Macho Man all ran well in the BC Classic as 3yos and all came back well as older horses. Even "lesser" types like Cryptoclearance, Concern, Perfect Drift, Tiago, and Cat Thief were solid enough during their 4yo (and older) campaigns to make a deserved appearance in another BC Classic(s).
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Old 09-21-2020, 02:01 PM   #112
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The only thing I can say is there's still plenty of money to be made trip handicapping when so many people believe chasing 22 and change while 5 on the first turn is 'perfect position' and then he's supposed to draw away like a wonder horse in the stretch. Granted Bob is great and his horse ran a peak effort in the Derby but this loss was more about the difference in trips. Personally I'd ditch Franco too, you don't heave your weight around like that asking for a lead switch, that's just ham-handed IMO. He'd ride nothing for me after seeing that.
Franco has had several subprime rides on this horse. I admire the connections' loyalty to him, and I know he's popular in New York, but there are better riders available.
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Old 09-21-2020, 03:50 PM   #113
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Franco has had several subprime rides on this horse. I admire the connections' loyalty to him, and I know he's popular in New York, but there are better riders available.
Several? I mean I guess the 2yo race at Churchill could have been better but I'm not sure the horse was very good that day anyway. The Derby, not sure what else he was supposed to do from that far outside. It wasn't a great trip but every horse can't get a great trip. What others?
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Old 09-21-2020, 04:03 PM   #114
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Both losses came at the same track, might say he does not like that track.
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Old 09-21-2020, 05:10 PM   #115
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Franco's Derby ride seemed fine to me.

He had the best horse in the race. He got a clear trip with the forward group. Ended up 2nd best, when Authentic ran a fast race.

Could have sent to the lead - but I can't recommend that without hindsight. Maybe it would have been the winning decision, with a time machine and an infinite number of scenarios to try? Seems like a poor tactic in real time.

Could have rated mid-pack, and made a big closing move - But, that seems like bad advice, knowing what we know about how most derbies are run, and with the fact that he was the horse to beat. Even in hindsight, I can't really rationalize that the pace was falling apart or hurting the forwardly placed runners.

As it played out, the one weak thing that I saw, was a little bit of flawed technique entering the stretch. Doubt it would have made any difference, even if he had made a perfectly coordinated entrance, and fought for position.

Authentic just ran a faster race, and he did it after breaking poorly and rushing up into the first turn. Overall, Authentic's 'performance' was probably the top 3yo derby-related route of the year.
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Old Yesterday, 11:16 AM   #116
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Old Yesterday, 01:10 PM   #117
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Implies he took a step back. It's a good move to rest up but IMO Pegasus and Dubai might be better to chase after than Tom and Max. They're all about year end awards (this year) I get it. They were a bit unlucky, sometimes it just doesn't work out though.
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Old Yesterday, 01:53 PM   #118
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Tiz came out of the KD appearing stiff. Today was his first good gallop where he seemed back to himself. I agree with an earlier poster that he probably doesn't like the Churchill Downs track.
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Old Yesterday, 02:28 PM   #119
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He might have "no shot" to win the 3yo Eclipse, either, if Authentic wins the Preakness.

Especially if Baffert skips the BC or targets the BC Dirt Mile with the colt afterwards. He already has Maximum Security and Improbable for the Classic and with Authentic's large ownership group someone in the camp is going to want to focus on protecting his stallion value.

On a stallion advert a BC win is a BC win.
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Old Yesterday, 02:55 PM   #120
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He might have "no shot" to win the 3yo Eclipse, either, if Authentic wins the Preakness.

Especially if Baffert skips the BC or targets the BC Dirt Mile with the colt afterwards. He already has Maximum Security and Improbable for the Classic and with Authentic's large ownership group someone in the camp is going to want to focus on protecting his stallion value.

On a stallion advert a BC win is a BC win.
I think a BC Classic would trump whatever else Authentic does but that isn't going to be easy. He'd have a better shot beating Authentic in the Preakness.

Large "ownership" group...LOL.
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