How do you handicap grass races?

[Aerocraft67]

What's all the grabbing and choking and unaggressive riding all about, anyway? That's a face value question—why do they do that? What's to gain in taking a smaller piece of the purse than you could? Are they calculating that the risk of running out of the money by going for the win is a negative expectation whereas a more conservative ride ensures a more likely score in the money at the expense of the win but with a more positive expectation?

One quick idea is that if your picks are consistently running in the money but not winning, consider vertical wagers.

To get past conservative rides to find winners, I guess it comes down to determining who is well meant to win. Just from this thread, there's an angle of sorts from small-time trainers shipping in for a score at Saratoga. Obviously they don't always have the horse to close the deal, but seems those are logically the ones going after it, all or none.

Given commendable handicapping, maybe there's something clever to do with wagering to increase hit rate. I'm a vertical player, but I look at many of these turf races with several viable contenders, find a key at a price and spread a little into the others, avoiding the favorite if it's at all vulnerable. That's not an automatic favorite toss but seems to be how I wind up playing these. I'm also betting to place more than usual.

If you truly believe these races are random and chaotic, I suppose there are ways to wager that assessment. If you maintain some predictability, you can bias toward better prices to try to even the score with low hit rate.

[Robert Fischer]

Here is one example method

Separate into 3 types of contender:
1. = horses whose good race contends for the win
2. = horses who need a dream trip to contend for the win
3. = horses who are unlikely to contend for the win

Then declare the patsy.

Then wager structure.

Then strut and pound your chest if you win, or blame the jockey if you were wrong or unlucky.

Example 12 horse turf race starter allowance
wed sar r3 (scroll down to wed) http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
1 = 4,5?,8
2 = 6,7,10,12
3 = 1,2,3,11

Patsy? = The public, who will bet the 5 Carbon Data down to favoritism, mainly because of his trainer.
(If you don't know who the patsy is by the time you reach this step, YOU are the patsy, and should skip any serious betting in the race.)

wager structure = I'll make 4,8 my'a's , and use five 'b's: 5,6,7,10,12 in this twelve horse field.

[classhandicapper]

I'm no turf expert, but this is what I think.

1. Speed figures are less accurate on grass because there are way more paces that are slow enough to impact the final time and rail setting are an added issue. So figure makers are forced to make more single race projected figures which can be prone to error.

2. Due to #1, class should probably be given more weight

3. Closing times are more important than on dirt, but closing times are still impacted by the earlier action/pace of the race. So it's not always so easy to make accurate comparisons across distances and pace scenarios.

4. Closers tend to have more of chance on most courses than on dirt even when the fractions are slow (and conversely getting loose in a slow pace is not as much of an advantage as on many dirt courses)

5. Dirt sprinters tend to do better in turf sprints that generally given credit for

6. If the pace is a "little faster" than average it doesn't alter the outcome as much as it might on dirt because average turf paces tends to be pretty slow by dirt standards.

7. Turf horses seem to be more consistent and hold their form longer.

8. Typically, dirt horses develop rapidly during their 2yo and 3yo year and then sort of peak at 4. Turf horses seem to develop a little slower and peak a little later more often.

9. Given turf horse consistency and the way the races develop, they are usually so deep and competitive, trips can be decisive and can make it darn near impossible to have a wins% as high as on dirt races.

10. Don't bet against Chad Brown.

[classhandicapper]

11. Stakes fillies have an easier time crossing over and competing against colts.

[letswastemoney]

You could just avoid grass, or wait and pick horizontal sequences with more dirt races in them (which is hard...grass races are popular and will always be prominent in the late Pick 4).

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Here is one example method

Separate into 3 types of contender:
1. = horses whose good race contends for the win
2. = horses who need a dream trip to contend for the win
3. = horses who are unlikely to contend for the win

Then declare the patsy.

Then wager structure.

Then strut and pound your chest if you win, or blame the jockey if you were wrong or unlucky.

Example 12 horse turf race starter allowance
wed sar r3 (scroll down to wed) http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
1 = 4,5?,8
2 = 6,7,10,12
3 = 1,2,3,11

Patsy? = The public, who will bet the 5 Carbon Data down to favoritism, mainly because of his trainer.
(If you don't know who the patsy is by the time you reach this step, YOU are the patsy, and should skip any serious betting in the race.)

wager structure = I'll make 4,8 my'a's , and use five 'b's: 5,6,7,10,12 in this twelve horse field.

This is more or less what I do in these large field events, break them down into A's C's and X's. B horses would be a horse who I think is likely to win should I have a single who does not fire, most of the time its A/C.

I usually bet win and place depending on the odds, just double on win bets if the horses are less than 4/1.

The race you quoted is a pretty good example. That is a very difficult race. I particularly thought it was between 3,4,7,8. I thought the 8 on pure ability looked best but the odds probably wont be playable for me.

I was very interested in Cite who I think has a bit muddled form being in too long of races the past two and before that ran races that could win this, and at 6/1 he figures a decent proposition.

If it was a gun to my head in multi race bets to feel comfortable I would be way deep in this race, as you were.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

You could just avoid grass, or wait and pick horizontal sequences with more dirt races in them (which is hard...grass races are popular and will always be prominent in the late Pick 4).

I thought this would be viable but the dearth of dirt races, and even more directly the dearth of competitive dirt races in NY makes it pretty hard. I did not realize it had gotten that bad there. To get value you are kinda either forced to be very very patient or play grass and dirt.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I almost think you need to farther break down turf races in to sprints and routes. You may find that you are having a vastly better time getting a read on the field in sprints, but just missing, and are hopeless in route races without a pick that got close. Or vice versa. But, for my money, turf sprints simply don't run the same way a turf route does, in general. You may find that focusing on one over the other brings your play up.

[GMB@BP]

Here was a race I made a decent size bet...the 2.

Watch the race. Vagabond

http://www1.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorse...eDate=20170729

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'm not any better as a handicapper on turf than I am on dirt this year. These are the numbers in 2017 from 876 races.

My top 2 choices on dirt represent 23% of the total entries and win 57% of the time.

My top 2 choices on turf represent 21% of the entries and win again 57% of the races.

The difference is in price. On dirt horses that are 2-1 or less win 26% of the time on dirt and only 14% of the time on grass. So 43% of the winners are going to be 5/2 or higher on turf and only to only 31% of the time on dirt. All around it is just a friendlier betting surface.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Here was a race I made a decent size bet...the 2.

Watch the race. Vagabond

http://www1.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorse...eDate=20170729

I bet this horse also. Don't worry, we'll get it back with her later in the meet. That was a nightmare trip

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

So two weeks in at Saratoga I am now 0/14 in turf races.

Not sure really what to do at this point. I have been betting good barns and good riders. Been playing horses who have been coming off some kind of trip or another, be it trouble or pace, or just a combination of bad things that muddied their form. I have detailed notes on every race run in NY for 2 months.

I have bet against a favorite who comes off two straight slow pace on the lead choke jobs only to see them set a fast pace and beat a superior field today.

Or horses who have gotten no pace, had to steady yet ran well then today they have a clear trip only to run moderately to run 2nd or 3rd.

I have bet horses with some pace only to watch them be strangled into submission in a race with no pace.

Its like these horses just take turns against each other with the riders doing their part to make it as random as possible.

Heck I am 0/3 betting Chad Brown horses, two were odds on singles in multi race bets.

On dirt I am 5/12. Slim pickings though betting dirt races in NYRA. You have to handicap grass races to play multi race bets there, usually especially the late Pick 4.

Suggestions?

Pray for rain-that's what I do

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

So two weeks in at Saratoga I am now 0/14 in turf races.

Not sure really what to do at this point. I have been betting good barns and good riders. Been playing horses who have been coming off some kind of trip or another, be it trouble or pace, or just a combination of bad things that muddied their form. I have detailed notes on every race run in NY for 2 months.

I have bet against a favorite who comes off two straight slow pace on the lead choke jobs only to see them set a fast pace and beat a superior field today.

Or horses who have gotten no pace, had to steady yet ran well then today they have a clear trip only to run moderately to run 2nd or 3rd.

I have bet horses with some pace only to watch them be strangled into submission in a race with no pace.

Its like these horses just take turns against each other with the riders doing their part to make it as random as possible.

Heck I am 0/3 betting Chad Brown horses, two were odds on singles in multi race bets.

On dirt I am 5/12. Slim pickings though betting dirt races in NYRA. You have to handicap grass races to play multi race bets there, usually especially the late Pick 4.

Suggestions?

Buy the rags for the turf races-$5 per race, $15 minimum. You will thank me later

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

So two weeks in at Saratoga I am now 0/14 in turf races.

Not sure really what to do at this point. I have been betting good barns and good riders. Been playing horses who have been coming off some kind of trip or another, be it trouble or pace, or just a combination of bad things that muddied their form. I have detailed notes on every race run in NY for 2 months.

I have bet against a favorite who comes off two straight slow pace on the lead choke jobs only to see them set a fast pace and beat a superior field today.

Or horses who have gotten no pace, had to steady yet ran well then today they have a clear trip only to run moderately to run 2nd or 3rd.

I have bet horses with some pace only to watch them be strangled into submission in a race with no pace.

Its like these horses just take turns against each other with the riders doing their part to make it as random as possible.

Heck I am 0/3 betting Chad Brown horses, two were odds on singles in multi race bets.

On dirt I am 5/12. Slim pickings though betting dirt races in NYRA. You have to handicap grass races to play multi race bets there, usually especially the late Pick 4.

Suggestions?

One of my favorite angles is first time turf with zero turf starts in career.
I figure there is a a good reason for the surface switch.
The connections must believe the horse has a good chance with this move.
If possible, look at confirmation. Horses with larger hooves tend to perform better on grass. Longer framed horses tend to do well on grass. Except in sprints. However, I will include this type if it looks like the speed will collapse.
Also. Look at your videos. Because of the generally larger fields,Turf racing is much more "trip intensive". If a horse that interests you has had trip trouble last time out, I'd bet them. This ties into the next. Which is.......
look at the rider. Very important to include horses in your bets in today's start are under a superior rider than last time out.
Obviously, better jockey will not get their mount into trouble. At least, one would hope.
Turf handicapping is an animal all its own.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Try it out at Gulfstream for a while...so you could be 0/28.

My best advice for handicapping the grass races? PASS them...and concentrate on the dirt. The turf is an acquired taste, IMO...and I hesitate to believe the bettors who claim to excel at it.

Compared to dirt I tend to suck at dirt handicapping. I am much more likely to cash on grass events.
Dunno if you've even seen my expression, "Horse racing nuclear winter".....I mean it....Once the cold weather sets in and grass racing goes to sleep, I all but stop betting horses.