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Old 02-05-2018, 06:20 PM   #166
thaskalos
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Originally Posted by Ian Meyers View Post
Really? The biggest teams have more than 100 employees, most of them with PHDs.

Who said they need to agree on everything? There are partners, senior non-partners and junior non-partners. The most senior execs (Partners) drive the bus like in every other for-profit organization and the less senior take direction from them. There are dozens of PHDs at Fair,Issac. They're not all equal.

Having been on the other side of the fence and having seen the average gambling performance of customers this entire discussion is amusing to me in a lot of ways. Many were losing at 30% or more yet I'd see them on PA and other forums bitching about how their rebates weren't high enough or complaining about breakage...
Yes, many of us are losing 30% or more, but we would still like to get those rebates that are available to some...so we could reduce our loss. And, when we look into the local rebate-ADWs, like BetPTC...we see that the sites exclude more U.S. states than they allow. Do we have to relocate, or buy another home in an "allowed state"...before we can get a decent rebate in this game? In which department of the horse-racing "industry" can we get answers to these questions?
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Old 02-05-2018, 06:53 PM   #167
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Originally Posted by Ian Meyers View Post
Really? The biggest teams have more than 100 employees, most of them with PHDs.

Who said they need to agree on everything? There are partners, senior non-partners and junior non-partners. The most senior execs (Partners) drive the bus like in every other for-profit organization and the less senior take direction from them. There are dozens of PHDs at Fair,Issac. They're not all equal.



Having been on the other side of the fence and having seen the average gambling performance of customers this entire discussion is amusing to me in a lot of ways. Many were losing at 30% or more yet I'd see them on PA and other forums bitching about how their rebates weren't high enough or complaining about breakage.

I came back to post only because Andy, whom I respect, asked me to. I don't need the nonsense, I enjoy what I do and I work with some great people. Everything else is just noise to me.

Thank you Ian. In my post that I concluded that aside from breakage:

the typical player with all the lines ironed out is going to lose 20-30% on the dollar typically depending on their skill level.

You just proved me right. Thank you.

Your attitude comes off as pretty arrogant. You didn't seem to happy about the Breders Cup Challenge when it looks like you were the sucker on the table, but now that you are representing the groups that are taking advantage (not blaming them or you, but that is what they are doing) of the betting public, you seem pretty cool with it. Interesting.
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Old 02-05-2018, 06:57 PM   #168
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Yes, many of us are losing 30% or more, but we would still like to get those rebates that are available to some...so we could reduce our loss. And, when we look into the local rebate-ADWs, like BetPTC...we see that the sites exclude more U.S. states than they allow. Do we have to relocate, or buy another home in an "allowed state"...before we can get a decent rebate in this game? In which department of the horse-racing "industry" can we get answers to these questions?
It's funny you mention that, but I had a conversation through private messages a few years back with someone who is well respected here (not someone who posted in this thread yet though) and when I asked about rebates, that was exactly what he told me---that I should move to a state where I had better chances at rebates---that or use a friend's address and get rebates that way. And while it was no doubt good advice if I wanted to dedicate my life to making a profit at horse racing, I thought (and still do) that if that's what it takes to win in this game, we're pretty much screwed.

And to be clear, I'm not begrudging the people who have the best technology and most knowledge their success. But with massive takeout, shrinking field sizes, and all of the other gambling options in the world, these organizations' ability to take value from the pools is just another reason not to play at more than a very casual level. Obviously racing is tied to these players' handle and can't break free now, but eventually we'll just have a handful of whales swimming around in a mud puddle.

Last edited by castaway01; 02-05-2018 at 06:59 PM. Reason: cleaned up the "fake address" thing because it's not the point of the post
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Old 02-05-2018, 07:41 PM   #169
Andy Asaro
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Originally Posted by Ian Meyers View Post
Really? The biggest teams have more than 100 employees, most of them with PHDs.

Who said they need to agree on everything? There are partners, senior non-partners and junior non-partners. The most senior execs (Partners) drive the bus like in every other for-profit organization and the less senior take direction from them. There are dozens of PHDs at Fair,Issac. They're not all equal.



Having been on the other side of the fence and having seen the average gambling performance of customers this entire discussion is amusing to me in a lot of ways. Many were losing at 30% or more yet I'd see them on PA and other forums bitching about how their rebates weren't high enough or complaining about breakage.

I came back to post only because Andy, whom I respect, asked me to. I don't need the nonsense, I enjoy what I do and I work with some great people. Everything else is just noise to me.
Appreciate it Ian. You've always been a straight shooter.
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Old 02-05-2018, 08:08 PM   #170
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Originally Posted by Ian Meyers View Post
Really? The biggest teams have more than 100 employees, most of them with PHDs.

Who said they need to agree on everything? There are partners, senior non-partners and junior non-partners. The most senior execs (Partners) drive the bus like in every other for-profit organization and the less senior take direction from them. There are dozens of PHDs at Fair,Issac. They're not all equal.



Having been on the other side of the fence and having seen the average gambling performance of customers this entire discussion is amusing to me in a lot of ways. Many were losing at 30% or more yet I'd see them on PA and other forums bitching about how their rebates weren't high enough or complaining about breakage.

I came back to post only because Andy, whom I respect, asked me to. I don't need the nonsense, I enjoy what I do and I work with some great people. Everything else is just noise to me.
I think it is safe to say that 99% of the posters here at PA are not whales and will likely NEVER be whales for a number of reasons...it would be interesting to know the details of their operations...I mean having 30 to 100 PHD’s in tandem is pretty amazing...one might think this enterprise is addressing the complexity of the Manhattan Project I mean really, how complex can it be to warrant millions of $ modeling and years of prep before making a single bet...I find myself doing ok just as a single player, picking up a form and making a few bets...sometimes I win, a lot of times I lose but I don’t intend to make my racing experience just a “means to an end” of making money, coldly and detached which it seems like these Teams do...for them, it really isn’t about the racing at all, is it...? It’s a business venture, a way to line their pockets, one Thread in a Portfolio of ventures, and even if the whales show losses, these losses will be offset by gains in other areas, so it is really just a big game to monopolize the Capital from All Arenas and prevent the plebs from sharing in the wealth...This is the pattern that the Robber Barons have employed for centuries and racing is just another arena where these Manhatten and Imperial plutocrats are dominant....horse racing being the long time pleasure fest of royalty....same old game, same old masters...only now the plebs are waking up and learning that they no longer need to be the breadwinners for a class of lazy Aristocrats and to continue to contribute to the already swollen Oligopoly of racing...
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Old 02-05-2018, 09:43 PM   #171
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I have one question: Are these bots always right?

I read the stories all the time about a horse that is 13/1 at post and when the race is over he's 5/1. In this game if a horse gets hammered with late money doesn't another horse (or horses) have to go up in odds? I never hear a story about a guys horse that was 5/1 at post and when they crossed the wire he was 13/1. Seems like it's got to happen. When odds on some horse or horses go down others have to go up. If these bot guys are so good that they only pick winners, they don't need rebates to get rich. Surely we can't all be betting on the same horse.

Also if this bot betting bothers you, you can take your business to a less bot friendly track. The bot guys shouldn't be a problem at some of the lower rebate or no rebate tracks if these guys are depending on rebates to be profitable.
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Old 02-05-2018, 09:49 PM   #172
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Also if this bot betting bothers you, you can take your business to a less bot friendly track. The bot guys shouldn't be a problem at some of the lower rebate or no rebate tracks if these guys are depending on rebates to be profitable.
I think our point is that people have taken their gambling money elsewhere.
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Old 02-05-2018, 10:07 PM   #173
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Originally Posted by Ian Meyers View Post
Really? The biggest teams have more than 100 employees, most of them with PHDs.

Who said they need to agree on everything? There are partners, senior non-partners and junior non-partners. The most senior execs (Partners) drive the bus like in every other for-profit organization and the less senior take direction from them. There are dozens of PHDs at Fair,Issac. They're not all equal.



Having been on the other side of the fence and having seen the average gambling performance of customers this entire discussion is amusing to me in a lot of ways. Many were losing at 30% or more yet I'd see them on PA and other forums bitching about how their rebates weren't high enough or complaining about breakage.

I came back to post only because Andy, whom I respect, asked me to. I don't need the nonsense, I enjoy what I do and I work with some great people. Everything else is just noise to me.
Ian, you have my sympathy.

People will believe whatever the hell they want to believe, the truth be damned. We see it everywhere...maybe people have always been this delusional...hell, maybe I'm that delusional in some areas of my life.

I appreciate you taking the time to at least TRY and set some of the record straight...but as the old saying goes, with some people, you could tell them the winner before the race, and they'd still find a way to lose.
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Old 02-05-2018, 10:08 PM   #174
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Your attitude comes off as pretty arrogant. You didn't seem to happy about the Breders Cup Challenge when it looks like you were the sucker on the table, but now that you are representing the groups that are taking advantage (not blaming them or you, but that is what they are doing) of the betting public, you seem pretty cool with it. Interesting.
ARROGANT? The guy comes here, by request, and tells it like he knows it, like he's worked it, and like he's lived it...has used his real name in posting here...and we still have people DOUBTING and QUESTIONING and basically calling him a LIAR (none of them using their real names by the way).

I'd be "arrogant" too...but I wouldn't use the word arrogant. I'd use something a lot stronger.
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Old 02-05-2018, 10:11 PM   #175
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I think it is safe to say that 99% of the posters here at PA are not whales and will likely NEVER be whales for a number of reasons...it would be interesting to know the details of their operations...I mean having 30 to 100 PHD’s in tandem is pretty amazing...one might think this enterprise is addressing the complexity of the Manhattan Project I mean really, how complex can it be to warrant millions of $ modeling and years of prep before making a single bet...I find myself doing ok just as a single player, picking up a form and making a few bets...sometimes I win, a lot of times I lose but I don’t intend to make my racing experience just a “means to an end” of making money, coldly and detached which it seems like these Teams do...for them, it really isn’t about the racing at all, is it...? It’s a business venture, a way to line their pockets, one Thread in a Portfolio of ventures, and even if the whales show losses, these losses will be offset by gains in other areas, so it is really just a big game to monopolize the Capital from All Arenas and prevent the plebs from sharing in the wealth...This is the pattern that the Robber Barons have employed for centuries and racing is just another arena where these Manhatten and Imperial plutocrats are dominant....horse racing being the long time pleasure fest of royalty....same old game, same old masters...only now the plebs are waking up and learning that they no longer need to be the breadwinners for a class of lazy Aristocrats and to continue to contribute to the already swollen Oligopoly of racing...
AGAIN...AGAIN...you gonna cry to me now...

JESUS man....wow....

"I'm not doubting you but..."

HOLY SHIT MAN....TROLL CITY


"addressing the complexity of the Manhattan Project" ROLL EYES EMOTICON

really man?

To someone like you, it might as well be as complex as the Manhattan project.

I can not...for the life of me...believe the SHIT I am reading in response to Ian's posts....

Sad man....just sad...I understand why you lose at this game. I truly do. And by the way, do they pay you by the word? Do you actually think you sound smart and clever with these stupid replies day after day after day...oy vey man...

I now understand why others have thrown in the towel...and it ain't because of the PHD's making their last minute bets on the "direct totes"

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Old 02-05-2018, 10:30 PM   #176
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AGAIN...AGAIN...you gonna cry to me now...

JESUS man....wow....

"I'm not doubting you but..."

HOLY SHIT MAN....TROLL CITY


"addressing the complexity of the Manhattan Project" ROLL EYES EMOTICON

really man?

To someone like you, it might as well be as complex as the Manhattan project.

I can not...for the life of me...believe the SHIT I am reading in response to Ian's posts....

Sad man....just sad...I understand why you lose at this game. I truly do. And by the way, do they pay you by the word? Do you actually think you sound smart and clever with these stupid replies day after day after day...oy vey man...

I now understand why others have thrown in the towel...and it ain't because of the PHD's making their last minute bets on the "direct totes"
You are entitled to your opinion Mike and I respect what you say...I only wish you could see me as a human being that happens to have an individual mind and is willing to express what he thinks...sure, what I write is not run of the mill stuff...but it is hardly stupid, and I am not here to sound clever or smart as you think...I just happen to have strong opinions...If you or Ian would like to share the complexities of what that batteries of PHD’s are working on full time I would be very appreciative...How do these Teams spend their days...what are they working on...? How are there plays made...? What gives them an edge...? How much money are they really making....? Do they care which horse wins...? Which combination comes in....? Details, Details DETAILS....PLEASE...I want to know all about what exactly these Teams are doing...what exactly is the rocket science they are working on that requires such and enormous brain trust to pull it all off...and what is their motivation for doing it...?

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Old 02-05-2018, 10:48 PM   #177
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You are entitled to your opinion Mike and I respect what you say...I only wish you could see me as a human being that happens to have an individual mind and is willing to express what he thinks...sure, what I write is not run of the mill stuff...but it is hardly stupid, and I am not here to sound clever or smart as you think...I just happen to have strong opinions...If you or Ian would like to share the complexities of what that batteries of PHD’s are working on full time I would be very appreciative...How do these Teams spend their days...what are they working on...? How are there plays made...? What gives them an edge...? How much money are they really making....? Do they care which horse wins...? Which combination comes in....? Details, Details DETAILS....PLEASE...I want to know all about what exactly these Teams are doing...what exactly is the rocket science they are working on that requires such and enormous brain trust to pull it all off...and what is their motivation for doing it...?
Another troll...like they would tell you?
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Old 02-05-2018, 11:01 PM   #178
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ARROGANT? The guy comes here, by request, and tells it like he knows it, like he's worked it, and like he's lived it...has used his real name in posting here...and we still have people DOUBTING and QUESTIONING and basically calling him a LIAR (none of them using their real names by the way).

I'd be "arrogant" too...but I wouldn't use the word arrogant. I'd use something a lot stronger.
First off I believe that it was only Thaskalos that was questioning him. I just found it really interesting that Thaskalos ran into a high volume player that is getting Breakage back on top of rebates (which I personally have a big problem with and Ian doesn't deny that can happen, he just implies that you would have to bet 250 million dollars a year to get it). Then Thaskalos I believe mentioned that was not the case with that group.

Personally I like reading the gossip, but I can't formulate opinion on gossip or hearsay. My hunch is that some of these teams do have this special machine Lambo refers to, that can peak into the pools, but since I do not know Lambo, and nobody else has corroborated that, so I have left it alone.


In every post I made in this thread I assumed what Ian has posted on this forum to be true So personally I have given him nothing but respect.

I just did not like the sound of

Having been on the other side of the fence and having seen the average gambling performance of customers this entire discussion is amusing to me in a lot of ways. Many were losing at 30% or more yet I'd see them on PA and other forums bitching about how their rebates weren't high enough or complaining about breakage.


I take his post along with his prior posts to mean who the **** are you people to be bitching and complaining about rebates and breakage. You want rebates, take out your wallet, cough up 25 million a year in betting capital and I will get you great rebates too. This is the problem with the game not the solution for the game.

This also was a poor representation of this thread which is more about how unplayable this game has become (most think it is because of bots, I think it is because of rebates/coupled with the bots, but mainly rebates).

This is why I considered his posting to be arrogant. Maybe it comes off wrong in print (that happens), but it sounded arrogant to me., so I called him on it.

I know you are a survival of the fittest type of guy, which is cool.But when guys like CJ and Tom and Thaskalos are all saying that this game is virtually unplayable now, people need to take heed. It isn't going to get better on its own.
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Old 02-05-2018, 11:02 PM   #179
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Another troll...like they would tell you?
why shouldn’t they tell us...it’s not like I am going to go out there and wager millions of $’s...they have little competition, that’s what an oligarchy is....and remember it is NOT THAT I DONT BELIEVE WHAT IAN IS SAYING because I DO and that is what is so troubling because, think about it, if these TEAMS through their brain trust have indeed figured out how to beat not just a race, but THE RACES as well, then what does that mean for the rest of us.....? That our bets are just, ultimately, their profits....so why continue betting....against THAT...?

Ian leaves little for me to doubt that he is working with said TEAMS and that they ARE PROFITABLE which means that what they are doing is WORKING AS MODELLED....

IT MAKES NO SENSE AT ALL FOR ME TO CONTINUE BETTING IN COMPETITION WITH TEAMS OF “RINGERS”....

Can you UNDERSTAND THAT...?
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Old 02-05-2018, 11:08 PM   #180
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Yes, I can understand it...so what?

You either adapt or you die. Class guys had to do it when speed figs came out.

Now you have to find a way to be profitable against the CRWs...if indeed you think they are the cause of your losses.

I personally think CRWs are the least of my worries when it comes to beating this game.
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