Yuvetsi 8th Santa Anita

[PaceAdvantage]

You guys all say you want to emulate the financial markets.

Well, in the financial markets, they have this thing called automated trading. Yes, you can manually enter trades, the old fashioned way.

Or you can have a BOT trade for you...entering all sorts of trades in a split second.

You guys scream progress, and then when progress arrives, you want to shut it down quick because you perceive it's making you lose.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

You guys all say you want to emulate the financial markets.

Well, in the financial markets, they have this thing called automated trading. Yes, you can manually enter trades, the old fashioned way.

Or you can have a BOT trade for you...entering all sorts of trades in a split second.

You guys scream progress, and then when progress arrives, you want to shut it down quick because you perceive it's making you lose.

Are you able to reproduce some of our posts where we "all say that we want to emulate the financial markets"?

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

You guys all say you want to emulate the financial markets.

Well, in the financial markets, they have this thing called automated trading. Yes, you can manually enter trades, the old fashioned way.

Or you can have a BOT trade for you...entering all sorts of trades in a split second.

You guys scream progress, and then when progress arrives, you want to shut it down quick because you perceive it's making you lose.

Suppose for a minute that they eliminated rebates on losing wagers but gave double rebates on winning wagers and nobody had the advantage of using a direct tote given to them by the ADW/Track (and certainly nothing wrong with creating your own program). The question is ...

Do you think that would alter the way they bet? If so, what does that say about the vastly different strategy employed by the whales and how it affects the odds? Bankroll edge, skill edge, massive rebate edge, and for some a tote edge IMO.

It is said that whales would rather have lower take for all cuz the pools would be bigger. I doubt their sincerity since the lower takeout for all wouldn't give rebates on losing wagers.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

Suppose for a minute that they eliminated rebates on losing wagers but gave double rebates on winning wagers and nobody had the advantage of using a direct tote given to them by the ADW/Track (and certainly nothing wrong with creating your own program). The question is ...

Do you think that would alter the way they bet? If so, what does that say about the vastly different strategy employed by the whales and how it affects the odds? Bankroll edge, skill edge, massive rebate edge, and for some a tote edge IMO.

It is said that whales would rather have lower take for all cuz the pools would be bigger. I doubt their sincerity since the lower takeout for all wouldn't give rebates on losing wagers.

Or say rebates on losing wagers were cut in half???? What then?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

Suppose for a minute that they eliminated rebates on losing wagers but gave double rebates on winning wagers and nobody had the advantage of using a direct tote given to them by the ADW/Track (and certainly nothing wrong with creating your own program). The question is ...

Do you think that would alter the way they bet? If so, what does that say about the vastly different strategy employed by the whales and how it affects the odds? Bankroll edge, skill edge, massive rebate edge, and for some a tote edge IMO.

It is said that whales would rather have lower take for all cuz the pools would be bigger. I doubt their sincerity since the lower takeout for all wouldn't give rebates on losing wagers.

All I want to know is this...

WHAT THE HELL IS A "DIRECT TOTE?"

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

Suppose for a minute that they eliminated rebates on losing wagers but gave double rebates on winning wagers and nobody had the advantage of using a direct tote given to them by the ADW/Track (and certainly nothing wrong with creating your own program). The question is ...

Do you think that would alter the way they bet? If so, what does that say about the vastly different strategy employed by the whales and how it affects the odds? Bankroll edge, skill edge, massive rebate edge, and for some a tote edge IMO.

It is said that whales would rather have lower take for all cuz the pools would be bigger. I doubt their sincerity since the lower takeout for all wouldn't give rebates on losing wagers.

A rebate is a rebate whether it is on losing wagers or winning wagers. If I bet a million dollars a year and break even, if my average rebate is 5% I will end up a net winner of $50,000. If this was switched to just my winning bets, I still have a million dollars in winning bets(payouts), on your method I will now get double rebated 10% or $100,000 of course I will lose the ability to batch bet. I think most whales would probably jump at that tradeoff. With all the extra money they will be making they can hire people to enter the bets for them 2 minutes earlier.

I am in the minority here. I dont think CRW is the problem(it doesn't help) and it makes the days of the Barry Meadow style "I need $18 on the 1-7 exacta and it is paying $21" pretty much obsolete as the CRW's will likely correct that mistake,.The problem is rebates. It provides incentive to these groups to knock all the value out of all value combinations. The bigger the rebate the more they are able to knock out the value. If they are getting a 15% rebate on a trifecta or superfecta they can use their models to estimate the price based of the toteboard(all that statistical stuff Ian is talking about) and bet them down to 7 or 8 % below fair value (leaving themselves a profit margin and putting the public at below even). Andy C is now going to chime in that but the other trifecta combinations go up. So what. The combinations that are going up are low probability and already at -20 to -40%, so they will be a little less disadantageous. The end result is that basically every combination is below fair value and the only people that can make money are those with high rebates themselve or those that have found methods of predicting outcomes that are off the radar of these groups.

If there were no rebates, they would not have that option. There only option would be to leave themselves some profit margin. This is the only way the game can surrvive long term. Imo, this sport can survive and thrive fine with an 8% wps take, a 10% exacta take and 12% takeout on all other exotics if it eliminates rebates. CRW alone would not bring this game down. These ridiculous last minute price swings would be a fraction of what they currently are if rebates were gone. As far as racing being stuck in this death bed. I call Bullshit. If you want the sport to grow and succeed. you look in the rear view mirror, you see that your idiotic idea did not work, you use a little common sense and realize that it cannot work and you change the gameplan so racing doesn't become a game of the past. You may bleed a little or even a lot initially but the end result is a much better game that has a chance to grow and prosper thrive far beyond what today's game has any chance of becoming. What we have today is ultimately going to be useless to everyone including the Whales. Of course they will go back to their hedge funds and the entire racing economy will be left licking its wounds.

Of course the Whales will not like this much, despite what they say, because
it will kill a ton of their action.The only ones that would like that kind of change are the ones that realize that the Candy Store will not be open forever and that eventually there will be no betting economy to fleece. You can bet a lot more money pounding trifecta, superfeca and exacta combos to well below market market value than you can bringing them to down to +5 or +7 %. If you want whales to play your game, this is what you should want them to do. CRW is not the big problem, Rebates are.

[VigorsTheGrey]

“3. CAW teams sink millions of dollars into developing their models and will labor for YEARS spending money collecting and analyzing data before they make even one bet. “

This statement is interesting.

Now then, racing in America is based on parimutuel wagering but CANNOT survive without a healthy and sizable FAN BASE....so I think we have to look at the goals of the FAN BASE versus the goals of the CAW teams...

Why would these Teams sink millions of dollars into developing their models....? Obviously, because they believe that if their models “work” that literally HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS of dollars can be gained as the result of their combined efforts which they then, presumably, would split....

These teams are probably composed of people who already have plenty of resources and many of them are already successful in other areas of financial venturing, including, probably Wall Street.

For me, it is the whole scale of the operations that is disturbing and how the gross scales affect the fortunes of the rank and file players and their ability to compete in this kind of market being dominated by automation cartels, whales, sharks, not to mention the inside machinations of the horsemen themselves (however infrequently this occurs).

If they are successful in their models and their schemes are brought to fruition, which on some level they already are, then the cartels and whales will price all others out of the market and they themselves will be subject to an effect of diminishing returns after they have destroyed the POPULAR FAN BASE, who are leaving the game due to many factors including the gut feeling that they are being bilked financially through the wagering process itself first, then sucked dry by cartels and other “resourceful” wagering professionals...

If the POPULAR FAN BASE continues to be impacted by innovative automated handicapping and gross wagers schemes, then you might as well put a fork into all of it because, frankly, WE ARE ALL DONE...

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

“3. CAW teams sink millions of dollars into developing their models and will labor for YEARS spending money collecting and analyzing data before they make even one bet. “

This statement is interesting.

Now then, racing in America is based on parimutuel wagering but CANNOT survive without a healthy and sizable FAN BASE....so I think we have to look at the goals of the FAN BASE versus the goals of the CAW teams...

Why would these Teams sink millions of dollars into developing their models....? Obviously, because they believe that if their models “work” that literally HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS of dollars can be gained as the result of their combined efforts which they then, presumably, would split....

These teams are probably composed of people who already have plenty of resources and many of them are already successful in other areas of financial venturing, including, probably Wall Street.

For me, it is the whole scale of the operations that is disturbing and how the gross scales affect the fortunes of the rank and file players and their ability to compete in this kind of market being dominated by automation cartels, whales, sharks, not to mention the inside machinations of the horsemen themselves (however infrequently this occurs).

If they are successful in their models and their schemes are brought to fruition, which on some level they already are, then the cartels and whales will price all others out of the market and they themselves will be subject to an effect of diminishing returns after they have destroyed the POPULAR FAN BASE, who are leaving the game due to many factors including the gut feeling that they are being bilked financially through the wagering process itself first, then sucked dry by cartels and other “resourceful” wagering professionals...

If the POPULAR FAN BASE continues to be impacted by innovative automated handicapping and gross wagers schemes, then you might as well put a fork into all of it because, frankly, WE ARE ALL DONE...

You have seen the light or in this case the dark (the demise of horse racing).

But have no fear there a Jackpot pool somewhere to save the day.

[Tom]

You guys scream progress, and then when progress arrives, you want to shut it down quick because you perceive it's making you lose.

Is it really progress when you purposely give a major advantage to a small percentage of your customers? Racing in NOT the financial markets - it is a business, a gambling game run by a track.

Should NYS give some kind of advantage to people who buy large numbers of lotto tickets over the guy who buys a couple every week?

They are not making ME lose - they are LOSING me. I bet under 10% of what I used to bet because the game suck so very much these days. Most day, I bet 0. Will be less this year. Much less.Is that the way to grow the game?

Nor adaptor die, adapt or leave.

I am not stupid enough to go out and buy a bunch of stock every day knowing that I have no shot against professional traders.

We gripe about tracks ignoring racing and favoring the casinos - that is their way to adapt. And all those people who go to them and pass by the entrance to he track. Why should they bother even looking at racing? The game is forcing the small bettors out just like it is forcing the small trainers and owners out. Pretty soon, the Bafferts and the Pletchers will have to find a filed and race their horses against each other because you won;t need race tracks with a handful of trainers and handful of whales betting on them.

[molson721]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

You guys all say you want to emulate the financial markets.

Well, in the financial markets, they have this thing called automated trading. Yes, you can manually enter trades, the old fashioned way.

Or you can have a BOT trade for you...entering all sorts of trades in a split second.

You guys scream progress, and then when progress arrives, you want to shut it down quick because you perceive it's making you lose.

Wild swings like this don't happen in the financial markets. When was the last time you made an automated trade and had the same type of price movement? IF financial markets moved like this (by percentage) in under 5 seconds from when a trade was placed, the government would be all over this investigating what is going on. Please don't call these type of odds swings as progress!

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by molson721

Wild swings like this don't happen in the financial markets.

Of course they do....they're called flash crashes...I remember the Dow dropping over 1,000 points in 10 minutes...watched it happen live...what was that May 2015? Then it made most of it back the rest of the day...

That was due to BOTS...

A LOT more money was lost in that 10 minutes than all the racing handle combined since 2015...about a trillion dollars...how many years of combined racing handle would it take to equal that kind of move?

[jay68802]

I think it was in August, I was buying a storage unit and the day before the bank was saying "you are good to go". The next morning it was "we better wait". I closed on the property 2 days later.

[PaceAdvantage]

Nope, I looked it up...and I was off a few years...the one I was thinking of was May 6, 2010

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Flash_Crash

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Nope, I looked it up...and I was off a few years...the one I was thinking of was May 6, 2010

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Flash_Crash

August 24th 2015.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

All I want to know is this...

WHAT THE HELL IS A "DIRECT TOTE?"

I don't know the specific term. You're wrong.