Sat Dec 17th, 2016 Race 6 Breakdown
1) My Golden Rose-wasn't in love with 1st start. Broke very clean, while 3 others were not. 3 back from the gate encouraged, then 6 back encouraged in nice inside spot off 2 very live FTS who were far ahead. Was outmoved by 2 runners in solid early part of race and then was caught for 3rd late by a bomb FTS. Did have solid action throughout. Changed leads well but was traffic free, didn't each much dirt (but that may not be an issue as route kickback is less forceful VS sprint kickback) and was outmoved by 3 horses in various parts of the race.
Tough part to swallow if you don't wager on this horse-Michelle Nevin is 3/13 with 2nd time starters stretching out from Sprint to Route on Dirt AND 11/34 with horses making their first dirt route overall ($4.73 ROI-I know ROI means nothing to 97% of PA posters
). Nevin is 8 for her LAST 16 overall. ON DUTROW TYPE FIRE !
Dam's kids are 6/23 with 83 Beyer Peak in Dirt Sprints BUT just 0/4 with a 61 Beyer peak in Dirt Routes. I always look at the sires of dam's kids and of note, this dam's 1 child was sired to Giacomo BUT that horse did better sprinting VS routing. I am concerned about the route with this runner as well, especially with her first out run. 10/1 ML
2) Double Cast-Clockers thought she had Turf Action early in her career. Been terrible on dirt, PASS.
3) Spirit of the dawn-Performed in the "performance part" of the race in her first start. (Very Good 1st quarter). Broke a hair inward, 1/2 back of gate leader (good gate speed) and was encouraged to get even and get a short lead. Then was "running" (not rating or jogging) for the most part in part of a 4 horse speed wall that set up the pocket and 2nd pocket winners (winner came back to lose in 2 stakes, 1 of them at a very short price). Can excuse that 1st effort as was fried a bit.
Is a half to a 7/27 Dirt Sprinter who made $450K plus BUT was just 0/7 routing with just $31,840 made routing.
Didn't see much size to this filly. The route concerns me visually. Will be the pace setter (barring a unique gate break with bumping, long load, chaos etc.). I will say, AND IT'S WAY TOO EARLY TO TELL after 1 race (especially with the rail post) but she (25% chance) could have a tendency (all tendencies start with 1) to break inward. That reduces the chance of the 1 horse.
Excellent WORKOUTS FOR 2nd start.
4) High End Lady-3rd foal from dam, 2 other children are not that classy. Kids 1/4 Dirt Routing (1 Dirt Route winning foal was by Lemon Drop Kid) with just a 49 beyer peak. 2 kids were mostly "unclassy".
Wasn't totally clued in as starter had to straighten her in gate (as field dispatched). Not much speed anyway. Ate a bit of kickback early but still had such little speed, not much kickback (fell too far behind nearest inside horse). Out of it in best part of race. Angled out into the slowest part of race, sucked up, going up and down a bit. Did not like gallop out to the right after wire.
5) Lockdown- Kids are 2/7 sprinting, 77B peak and $54,000 earned. BUT............... Kids are 8/15, $2,702,000 earned ROUTING on Dirt. (103B peak). The same sire and dam have 2 kids, 1 of which is Close Hatches. Also trained by Bill Mott...... Close Hatches obviously was best routing. Even the weaker of the 2 full siblings developed and ran his best race, ROUTING.
Was out clean in clear, not much kickback in debut, calmly stalking average pace in clear, forced way down to 2 path for far turn run, angled back out lane. Changed leads well, lugged in a bit and was just able to hold on to 2nd over runner who was uncomfortable and rank for at least 3/8. galloped out very good and in front as expected with this pedigree. Should improve in 2nd start. Especially at 8 1/2 F.
6) Done and Dusted- Nevin great in 1st starts at a route with runners but just 1/3 with FTS on Dirt as FTS. Not a common move for her. She is 8 for her last 16 OVERALL (See #1). Bred for Route Speed on the sire side. Dam had speed as well. Won in 1st dirt start (shipping from outside the US with an 83 Beyer at the FG) Kids are 10/59 but mostly Turf as the kids have 7 wins in 26 starts on Turf. Kids are 0/2 in Dirt Routes.
I would use this horse in pick 4's as a "B" type but I project this horse as a speed type who will have to deal with the fast Pletcher horse in gate #3, so tough to endorse as top pick, unless the 3 scratches.
7) Storm Cry- Kids are 1/24, that win Dirt Routing (By Distorded Humor). (82 Beyer peak, for kids Dirt Routing).
Was set up diagonally in gate for 1st start (on Turf). Not the proper placement. Was obviously off a beat slow. Moved up around foes with nice natural early speed. rated professionally 2 wide on the backstretch BUT was green with leads in the latter portion of the backstretch run. Using hard to keep up from the 1/2. Did not exhibit high turf leg action. Off replay, I don't see a huge turf hoof but can't be sure of that unless I'm in the paddock. Have the feeling this one might be a pace presence (like the 3 and 6) and tire in the last 1/2. At least in this stage of her life.
8) Thirstforthecup-Decent 1st out run, where she showed rally and decent action from the 5/16 (geared down from the 1/16) was followed up by a route that kind of bothers me.... That PARX race, to me, is THE definition of dressed up. Was not out quick from the outside post BUT, jock made AN AWESOME move to tuck immediately to the rail AND as many other jocks floated wide into the Clubhouse turn in a SLOW 1st quarter, this filly settled into a perfect pocket. The eventual winner, fought off 2 different mid races challenges to win while this filly sat chilly watching from the inside till the lane. Fractions were slow to 3/4 and the 4th quarter was solid. Yes, she finished solidly in the 4th quarter but she was outkicked by 2 blah runners in the 4th quarter, 1 of which was used almost the entire last 3/4's. She exhibited stamina, can be used on the bottom of supers, but is not for me.
9) China Ryder-Dam was best dirt sprinting (and rallying). Has the same look. Kids did well in almost every category but dirt routing. WO run not impressive. Was on wrong lead from gate till clubhouse turn. That worries me as in routes, you want a horse, especially young ones to have energy late. 2 back sprint was solid but was ZERO match for winner who totally outkicked her in Very Good last Q. Had solid trip chasing from a loose pocket. I keyed her under a David Donk 1ster I liked back in the spring at Belmont (off of her very good gallop out in her 1st start). Solid horse but not a horse I want to bet to win, especially in her 1st dirt route. B type in Pick 4's. Using under in sups, ex, tri but not my top selection. Regardless of any value.
10) Devine Union-Dam's kids 4/17 Dirt Sprinting and 0/4 Dirt Routing but this gal from Union Rags, looks to be a better router. Clicked from 3/1 to 5/2 in Spa debut, SHOCKER
as was a Chad Brown FTS at the SPA. A bit bigger, so I could see why the 7F debut decision was made. Nice looking filly. Was out clean, hustled and showed the ability to FIND the pocket on the backstretch of the spa (Big difference between earning/finding a pocket VS. being given one). Came up the rail and then simply looked to be a "short" horse on energy in the lane. Quite confusing for a Chad Brown horse. However, when I watched her 2nd start, I saw talent and a different filly. I watched that race, thinking Lockdown would be better. My eye and gut kept going back to this filly. She was out well, immediately ate kickback from the bell, looked to be uncomfortable and rank for over 3/8's. She was jammed into the rail by the rider of Lockdown, ran again with the emergency brakes BUT then when they hit the lane, her talent showed. She came on better than Lockdown and finished better than Lockdown. When a horse is rank/uncomfortable for so long (3/8), you can excuse them spitting the bit out. She didn't AND ran home better. She galloped out solid and will like the seperation ( I see the 3, 6, 7 and 1 creating some seperation early-especially if the 3 is the rabbit for the dressed up 8 horse).
To me, this is a complete 2 horse race. 5 10 , 10 5. They will pick up the pieces at the 3/8 and 1 of them will win, IMHO. Could be a cold exacta.
Trips will decide this one, IMHO. PP 5 VS PP 10 is a big difference on the inner.....
In the pick 4, Pick 6 and rolling P3's, the 2 chalks are my A's. 5&10.
I have a push on the 5.
However, this is a pick the winner thread. After a ton of going back and forth, I will put aside the "push" and go with what I saw in their last race and select the 10. My fear is the 5 needed her first and will improve but I also think Devine needed her last for experience and she will improve as well.
10-5-rest I don't like. Cold exacta box 10 5.
Devine Union- Was out clean, hustled and showed the ability to FIND the pocket on the backstretch of the spa (Big difference between earning/finding a pocket VS. being given one). 
MY GOLDEN ROSE stands out for a few reasons--price being one.
THIRST FOR THE CUP 6-1