Identifying Early leaders

[Dave Schwartz]

How much energy can a horse expend in order to get to the front 4, at the stretch, and after expanding that amount of energy, how much energy will he have left?

By the way, when you figure out how to determine this, DON'T TELL ANYONE!

Don't listen to that Raybo guy! Tell us everything!


Seriously, your "how much energy" quote makes perfect sense. The entire problem breaks down when you even try to discuss this further. See, you actually need a workable energy calculation.

To my knowledge there are no published, workable, viable formulas to compute such a thing accurately. (Emphasis on the important word.)

If you know of such a formula, please post it - I'd love to see it.

I have one but it is rudimentary at best. Compared to how good it should be, it is pitifully weak.

If one has such a formula, one should be able to capture a high percentage of winners, including the longer-priced horses. Picking individual winners becomes more problematic because of the form factor but as a group the "contenders" should hit an amazing percentage of winners.

The approach I am using (and marketing) is truly hitting over 80% among the contenders (about 4.5 per race).

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

If you know of such a formula, please post it - I'd love to see it.
.

If one has such a formula, one should be able to capture a high percentage of winners, including the longer-priced horses. Picking individual winners becomes more problematic because of the form factor but as a group the "contenders" should hit an amazing percentage of winners.

I'm not about to pull an Andy Beyer and neither should anyone else.

The key to current available energy is highlighted in the quote. After that, you can figure the formula.

[mistergee]

In regard to identifying early leaders, has anyone used the theories or ratings suggested in " The Power Of Early Speed" by Steve Klein of DRF.
I off and on have tried the pace ratings in one of Beyers books but did not find they made a big difference in the bottom line. Has anyone tried these for an extended period? I feel the ratings are probably as correct as you can get but I believe they also may prove as has been mentioned often here that the numerical knowledge of pace may not be as important as knowing for example---Ok, in this field X amount of horses are gonig to try to go right to the front and X are not??

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by mistergee

In regard to identifying early leaders, has anyone used the theories or ratings suggested in " The Power Of Early Speed" by Steve Klein of DRF.
I off and on have tried the pace ratings in one of Beyers books but did not find they made a big difference in the bottom line. Has anyone tried these for an extended period? I feel the ratings are probably as correct as you can get but I believe they also may prove as has been mentioned often here that the numerical knowledge of pace may not be as important as knowing for example---Ok, in this field X amount of horses are gonig to try to go right to the front and X are not??

This post examplifies the mistake that most people make concerning pace handicapping.

It is widely assumed that pace handicapping is all about "which horses are going to try to go right to the front"...or, "which horses figure to come from behind"...and that's just not true.

Have you ever watched a longer distance race in the Olympics...and have seen the runners looking at their wrist watches at key points in the race?

Why do they do it?

They do it because they know that, unless they pace themselves properly during the race, their individual performances will suffer.

If they are on the lead, they have to run "within themselves", and not try to set too fast a pace...otherwise, they won't have their customary late kick when that late kick is called for. Energy expended early is not available late.

If the runners are trailing the field, they want to make sure that the pace leaders are not setting too SLOW a pace...because then, their customary late kick may not be good enough to overcome the advantage of these "well rested" front runners.

It works exactly the same way in horseracing...with the exception that there are no wrist watches on the scene -- although some jockeys claim to have a clock "in their head".

When a horse gets an easy, uncontested lead, and is able to slow the pace down to a comfortable level...then this horse will deliver the very best race it is capable of...and the other horses in the race are placed at a distinct disadvantage.

If a "heated" pace duel develops...or if the lone frontrunner "gets away" from the jockey, and runs a much faster pace than is ideal for the circumstances...then the race's advantage switches to the trailing horses...and our frontrunner finds himself with a tall mountain to climb in the stretch.

That's where competent pace handicapping comes in!

Proper pace handicapping is not just used in order to predict what is likely to happen in TODAY'S race...it is also used to identify these distinct advantages and disadvantages, which have developed in PAST races...so the horseplayer can form an accurate opinion about the REAL abilities, and the TRUE condition of the horses in today's field.

That's where accurate pace FIGURES...and proper pace figure INTERPRETATION play a crucial role.

There is a lot more to pace handicapping than "who is going to the front"...and "who figures to close in the stretch".

[Dave Schwartz]

There is a lot more to pace handicapping than "who is going to the front"...and "who figures to close in the stretch".

I cannot disagree with that statement. However, I have found that with just the above info, you can beat the game if you wager them properly.

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I cannot disagree with that statement. However, I have found that with just the above info, you can beat the game if you wager them properly.

Dave,

Are you saying that information, solely? No speed figures, pace figures, class consideration, current form, etc?

Thanks,

Mike

[bob60566]

Originally Posted by PICSIX

Dave,

Are you saying that information, solely? No speed figures, pace figures, class consideration, current form, etc?

Thanks,

Mike

Mike
I use New Pace Daves product for about month now.
Yes I use speed figures and pace figs from Bris pp nothing else and this clearly gives me the early horses and the late horses that are competive in any given race using his formula.
One thing I found with New Pace you want to be selective in handicapping races even after month it takes time but for me the effort is paying off.
Mac

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by bob60566

Mike
I use New Pace Daves product for about month now.
Yes I use speed figures and pace figs from Bris pp nothing else and this clearly gives me the early horses and the late horses that are competive in any given race using his formula.
One thing I found with New Pace you want to be selective in handicapping races even after month it takes time but for me the effort is paying off.
Mac

Looks like I'll have to spend a little bit and get new pace for myself.

Thanks,

Mike

[Dave Schwartz]

Are you saying that information, solely? No speed figures, pace figures, class consideration, current form, etc?

No, and I did not intentionally mislead you. Sorry.

Obviously, you need SOME numbers to keep things straight. Truly, I have been using NewPace myself for awhile and it absolutely beats the game. Speed figures are a part of it, as they tell you who simply does not figure (no pun intended) to run to today's pace.

Ironically, I do not find that you need pace figures for that, although I admit I am trying to improve things with Jim Cramer's pace numbers, which are the absolute best I have ever seen. To date I have not been able to, but I think eventually I will.

And let me make this clear - I CAN do a better job of picking the winning horse with Jim's pace figures - that is what they do. I just cannot make as much money because it takes me off of the less obvious horse that sometimes winds up paying big prices.


So, in NewPace you need:

1. The last 10 speed ratings (Beyers, BRIS, par-based, Cramer, all should be fine).

2. The last 10 running lines (positions and lengths).

3. Jockey's win percentage.

I don't think I've let anything out.


Dave

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

So, in NewPace you need:

1. The last 10 speed ratings (Beyers, BRIS, par-based, Cramer, all should be fine).

2. The last 10 running lines (positions and lengths).

3. Jockey's win percentage.

I don't think I've let anything out.


Dave

Thanks for the clarification.

[RXB]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Have you ever watched a longer distance race in the Olympics...and have seen the runners looking at their wrist watches at key points in the race?

Why do they do it?

They do it because they know that, unless they pace themselves properly during the race, their individual performances will suffer.

If they are on the lead, they have to run "within themselves", and not try to set too fast a pace...otherwise, they won't have their customary late kick when that late kick is called for. Energy expended early is not available late.

If the runners are trailing the field, they want to make sure that the pace leaders are not setting too SLOW a pace...because then, their customary late kick may not be good enough to overcome the advantage of these "well rested" front runners.

It works exactly the same way in horseracing...

For the record, it doesn't work exactly the same way in human racing and thoroughbred racing, although the basic physiological reactions to exertions are similar between horses and humans. Tactically, they're quite different. Especially when it comes to dirt horse racing.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by RXB

For the record, it doesn't work exactly the same way in human racing and thoroughbred racing, although the basic physiological reactions to exertions are similar between horses and humans. Tactically, they're quite different. Especially when it comes to dirt horse racing.

Would you mind expanding on your comment a little...so I can see where our disagreement lies?

[Fastracehorse]

Originally Posted by raybo

I'm not about to pull an Andy Beyer and neither should anyone else.

The key to current available energy is highlighted in the quote. After that, you can figure the formula.

It is completely relevant to the discussion.

The Beyer is a measure of energy - as would be any speed fig.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

This post examplifies the mistake that most people make concerning pace handicapping.

It is widely assumed that pace handicapping is all about "which horses are going to try to go right to the front"...or, "which horses figure to come from behind"...and that's just not true.

Have you ever watched a longer distance race in the Olympics...and have seen the runners looking at their wrist watches at key points in the race?

Why do they do it?

They do it because they know that, unless they pace themselves properly during the race, their individual performances will suffer.

If they are on the lead, they have to run "within themselves", and not try to set too fast a pace...otherwise, they won't have their customary late kick when that late kick is called for. Energy expended early is not available late.

If the runners are trailing the field, they want to make sure that the pace leaders are not setting too SLOW a pace...because then, their customary late kick may not be good enough to overcome the advantage of these "well rested" front runners.

It works exactly the same way in horseracing...with the exception that there are no wrist watches on the scene -- although some jockeys claim to have a clock "in their head".

When a horse gets an easy, uncontested lead, and is able to slow the pace down to a comfortable level...then this horse will deliver the very best race it is capable of...and the other horses in the race are placed at a distinct disadvantage.

If a "heated" pace duel develops...or if the lone frontrunner "gets away" from the jockey, and runs a much faster pace than is ideal for the circumstances...then the race's advantage switches to the trailing horses...and our frontrunner finds himself with a tall mountain to climb in the stretch.

That's where competent pace handicapping comes in!

Proper pace handicapping is not just used in order to predict what is likely to happen in TODAY'S race...it is also used to identify these distinct advantages and disadvantages, which have developed in PAST races...so the horseplayer can form an accurate opinion about the REAL abilities, and the TRUE condition of the horses in today's field.

That's where accurate pace FIGURES...and proper pace figure INTERPRETATION play a crucial role.

There is a lot more to pace handicapping than "who is going to the front"...and "who figures to close in the stretch".

....talking about; but I disagree with you about: That you need a numerical measurement of pace to determine the pace scenarios that you outlined above.

You can do this by the method that you said was too 'primitive' in a sense.

It's simple in concept really. If a horse always has the lead by the 1/4in a 6f sprint - he will again today.

You can separate horses by their stalking preferences. You can be good at determining raceshape by the horse's PP's.

Having said the above, I like you do use a quantitative measurement to determine ability - a speed fig. We are measuring the same thing.

My argument is you can accurately measure raceshape w/out numerical ratings.

fffastt

[RXB]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Would you mind expanding on your comment a little...so I can see where our disagreement lies?

Casual attention to the Olympic events makes someone knowledgeable on human racing to about the same extent that watching the Triple Crown makes someone an expert on horse racing.

Regarding tactical differences, here's a hint: go watch video of every Olympic or World Championship 800-metre or 1500-metre that you can find, see how (in)frequently the winners lead from start to finish compared to gate-to-wire thoroughbreds-- especially dirt horses-- and then tell me if you still think it "works exactly the same."