View Poll Results: Who Offers the Best PPs
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Equibase
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70 |
9.07% |
Brisnet
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443 |
57.38% |
DRF
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259 |
33.55% |
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08-10-2020, 08:20 PM
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#211
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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I'd be willing to bet that if we did a test of all the high quality publicly available speed figures there wouldn't be more than a 1% or 2% difference in win%. There "might" be more of difference in ROI because some are more widely distributed and some attract bigger bettors.
I think being comfortable with the thinking and methodology of the figure maker is almost as important as the figures.
Do you want to include pace, weight, ground loss?
Do you want races that don't fit the variant of the day broken out routinely or only in certain circumstances?
I sort of like what TimeformUS does because it gives me the final time figure and a pace adjusted figure. That allows me to see the algorithm but also allows me to make my own subjective adjustments to the final time figure if I want. There are also notations about races and days that may have been more difficult than others. That's something I wanted for years.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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08-11-2020, 06:57 AM
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#212
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I'd be willing to bet that if we did a test of all the high quality publicly available speed figures there wouldn't be more than a 1% or 2% difference in win%. There "might" be more of difference in ROI because some are more widely distributed and some attract bigger bettors.
I think being comfortable with the thinking and methodology of the figure maker is almost as important as the figures.
Do you want to include pace, weight, ground loss?
Do you want races that don't fit the variant of the day broken out routinely or only in certain circumstances?
I sort of like what TimeformUS does because it gives me the final time figure and a pace adjusted figure. That allows me to see the algorithm but also allows me to make my own subjective adjustments to the final time figure if I want. There are also notations about races and days that may have been more difficult than others. That's something I wanted for years.
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I asked about a study like that but also realized that no one has subs to multiple data vendors....so they are safe..for now
Unless a group of different data users would like to get together including a programmer to help out with the testing...wink wink
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11-16-2020, 02:01 PM
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#213
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 253
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A speed ratings study was done in I believe 1998-1999, proposed and managed by Jim Bayle. Jim Bayle produced a regular horse racing report for his company SportStat and was an obvious person to initiate such a study.
We were contacted by Jim Bayle and were eager to participate. The subtext of the comment "so they are safe..for now." seems to me to be that speed figure makers are somehow dubiously avoiding scrutiny. At least that is what I read, whether it was intended that way or not. I'll set the record straight
HDW was just one entity involved in that study. Ragozin Sheets and Thorograph were both involved, as well as Beyer. I think BRIS was involved but I may be mistaken. Possibly Pizzola too but again, I am a bit hazy on that.
All parties were willing participants. Nobody was ducking into a "safe" harbor, trying to avoid scrutiny The work involved by everyone associated with the study on a daily basis for about a year was considerable and there were no interruptions in our data flow. I cannot speak to the experience of the other participants. Numbers had to be posted to Jim Bayles and time stamped BEFORE that day's races. I believe everyone was allowed to define a custom algorithm for testing and all the numbers would be tested by whatever custom algorithms were submitted, as well as a standard set of metrics.
So, the envelope please...oops, no envelope. After almost a year of daily grind by all parties involved, Jim Bayle, who had amassed a lot of data by then, stopped answering calls and stopped communicating. We subsequently found out, from our own customers, that he had started a long shot service! He broke off all communication with all the parties involved. And believe me, there were some pissed off parties.
Months later, Jim kept trying to track Jim Bayle down and somehow managed to get him on the phone one day. He had no explanation, just hemming and hawing. Since he had zero interest in completing the study, i.e. processing all the data and doing the analysis, Jim Cramer asked if he would release the data to an independent objective third party who could hire out the data processing and analysis. We would foot the bill along with anybody else who wished to contribute. Jim suggested Barry Meadow as the independent third party. Definite maybe.
I don't recall all the people Jim was able to contact but I specifically remember him calling Len Ragozin to explain the situation and pitch the idea of an independent third party, overseen by Barry Meadow, finishing the study with the data. He was all in and, being the good communist that he was, even offered to pay a bigger share of the bill since he made more money!!!
Nothing ever came of that - Jim Bayle was incommunicado again So ended the great speed ratings shoot out. We have our theories about what happened but I won't contribute to internet pollution by posting speculations.
Ron Tiller
HDW
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11-19-2020, 07:01 PM
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#214
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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There was also a short term study done on Thorograph vs. Ragozin. I'm going to guess it was about 10 years or so ago. It got off to a good start and then suddenly it was stopped. I'm not sure if the volunteer got tired of doing the work or someone didn't like that the results, but it was stopped fairly quickly.
I'm kind of jaded on the whole issue.
Obviously, the times of races matter a lot, but the technical and subjective issues involved lead to a lot of small and large inaccuracies and disagreements between figure makers. Then the way the track is playing and how the races develop adds another layer on top of that. I think it's more about being comfortable with the figure maker's thinking and understanding his ideas well than which set of figures you use. Personally, I'm just looking to know whether the race was clearly fast or slow for the class and less about a 1 or 2 fifths either way.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 11-19-2020 at 07:02 PM.
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11-19-2020, 08:27 PM
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#215
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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From August...
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12-25-2020, 07:27 PM
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#216
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 189
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HELP ON BRISNET FIGURES
Many years ago, I was making my own pace figures. I know the brisnet figures are machine generated.
I contacted BRIS and asked if I could have the template, or file, and would pay for it, that would have layed out things in such detail that I could know the projection of a horse. I literally wanted each table for each distance turf and dirt, that would then give me a final figure. They would not sell it to me.
It would have been a big file. The reason I am into this again, is because I got quite a bit better this year, and seem to have trouble with 7.5 furlong turf projects going long or short. It is usually a GPX issue, but occasionally shows up in other places. If anyone can suggest what steps I could take, let me know.
The other reason, is really because I do play a lot of stretch outs on the dirt and feel pretty confident with the method I used but want more details.
Thanks.
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12-31-2020, 10:50 AM
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#217
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paulbenny
Many years ago, I was making my own pace figures. I know the brisnet figures are machine generated.
I contacted BRIS and asked if I could have the template, or file, and would pay for it, that would have layed out things in such detail that I could know the projection of a horse. I literally wanted each table for each distance turf and dirt, that would then give me a final figure. They would not sell it to me.
It would have been a big file. The reason I am into this again, is because I got quite a bit better this year, and seem to have trouble with 7.5 furlong turf projects going long or short. It is usually a GPX issue, but occasionally shows up in other places. If anyone can suggest what steps I could take, let me know.
The other reason, is really because I do play a lot of stretch outs on the dirt and feel pretty confident with the method I used but want more details.
Thanks.
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7.5f is a tough distance everywhere, but at Gulfstream it is particularly tough because they use a wide variety of run ups and rail settings. I personally have a baseline for every different rail setting / run up combination for every track. I do group them to be reasonable, don't have to be exact matches.
At Gulfstream, they also don't use the same run up on the same day, and use multiple rails.
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12-31-2020, 11:02 AM
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#218
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 13
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Free pps
Quote:
Originally Posted by point given
I'd say the DRF Formulator are best but I've used the Bris for the past 10 years now without paying a dime , so they are best for me.
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How for free? I've found sites where if you can match at least 1 trainer or owner or sire from their list for a race , then, you can get (Equibase?) pps for that race. I've gotten whole cards for major tracks like Gulfstream before. Anyway, I earn credits for DRF pps and since I used to calculate my own Beyers, prefer the Beyers vs. the other speed figures
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01-02-2021, 10:52 AM
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#219
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 189
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DATA FILES
I was trying to pursue the following:
6f
e1 e2 lp sp
60 70 65 52
so I could have it for a reasonable sample or all races and surfaces so if a horse ran those figures above and another ran lp 80 instead I would see their speed figure calculated at whatever.
It was a huge request really
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04-10-2021, 10:29 PM
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#220
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,626
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theshadow
How for free? I've found sites where if you can match at least 1 trainer or owner or sire from their list for a race , then, you can get (Equibase?) pps for that race. I've gotten whole cards for major tracks like Gulfstream before. Anyway, I earn credits for DRF pps and since I used to calculate my own Beyers, prefer the Beyers vs. the other speed figures
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Brisnet is free via TwinSpires provided you make at least one bet on the card you pull. Might be free regardless if pulling from the TS phone app. Int'l Brisnet is free via the Brisnet website.
Also, I think DRF is free if you bet enough on the card via TVG.
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