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12-16-2018, 01:15 PM
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#46
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Secondbest
Keep on posting. I always like reading all your posts.
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Hey Second
Thanks bro
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12-16-2018, 01:18 PM
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#47
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wizard of Odds
That's okay, because many have posted items 1), 2) and 3) over recent years/tracks so we can do the comparison after you gather the info for your picks.
I think it would be very impressive if you made over 300 picks and your picks resulted in an ROI above 1.05.
On the other hand, if your picks resulted in an ROI between .75 and .90, then I believe you might want to rethink your world view of horse racing gambling because you would not be significantly outperforming baseline metrics and (without rebates) your picks would have resulted in a substantial long term loss.
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Ok bro will look for the magic 300+ and will see what happens
Hahahaha lol
Thanks bro
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12-16-2018, 02:10 PM
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#48
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 164
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Ok bro will look for the magic 300+ and will see what happens
Hahahaha lol
Thanks bro
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It probably goes without saying, but I'll say it anyway. It is only fair to count races where you made picks before they were run. So, if you said "yesterday all five 7/2 M/L odds at Aqueduct (of which 3 won) returned $19.40 on $10.00 total of bets", you can't include these five races in your records. Probably obvious, but I just wanted to be crystal clear and sorry if this might insult you.
__________________
"God hath written the language of the Universe in Mathematics" - Galileo
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12-16-2018, 02:40 PM
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#49
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wizard of Odds
It probably goes without saying, but I'll say it anyway. It is only fair to count races where you made picks before they were run. So, if you said "yesterday all five 7/2 M/L odds at Aqueduct (of which 3 won) returned $19.40 on $10.00 total of bets", you can't include these five races in your records. Probably obvious, but I just wanted to be crystal clear and sorry if this might insult you.
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I get it and no that's not a pick but I do mention those as reminders to watch for later picks
No insult taken
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12-16-2018, 02:57 PM
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#50
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wizard of Odds
It probably goes without saying, but I'll say it anyway. It is only fair to count races where you made picks before they were run. So, if you said "yesterday all five 7/2 M/L odds at Aqueduct (of which 3 won) returned $19.40 on $10.00 total of bets", you can't include these five races in your records. Probably obvious, but I just wanted to be crystal clear and sorry if this might insult you.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
I get it and no that's not a pick but I do mention those as reminders to watch for later picks
No insult taken
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There’s a horse in the 7th race at Aqueduct today
#11 Gamblers Fallacy
If this horse wins and you’ve been reading this post then I won’t feel sorry for you
Hahahaha lol
Hey Wiz
I guess this goes as a pick?
Last edited by TheOracle; 12-16-2018 at 03:00 PM.
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12-16-2018, 04:31 PM
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#51
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 164
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
There’s a horse in the 7th race at Aqueduct today
#11 Gamblers Fallacy
If this horse wins and you’ve been reading this post then I won’t feel sorry for you
Hahahaha lol
Hey Wiz
I guess this goes as a pick?
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LOL
__________________
"God hath written the language of the Universe in Mathematics" - Galileo
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12-16-2018, 07:26 PM
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#52
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 164
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Ok bro will look for the magic 300+ and will see what happens
Hahahaha lol
Thanks bro
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And from the start of when you made picks through the present.
__________________
"God hath written the language of the Universe in Mathematics" - Galileo
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12-16-2018, 07:35 PM
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#53
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 164
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It also would be interesting to track those horses you advise not to bet. Like "don't bet any 5/2 M/L favorites today because they did so well yesterday"
If these horses return an ROI of less than .6, that would be very impressive indeed.
On other hand, if there is no significant difference between the ROI of those horses you pick to bet versus the ROI of those you advise not to bet, then the conclusion is kinda self-explanatory.
Good Luck with the compilations!
__________________
"God hath written the language of the Universe in Mathematics" - Galileo
Last edited by Wizard of Odds; 12-16-2018 at 07:43 PM.
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12-16-2018, 08:49 PM
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#54
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Looks like today will be Sloppy surface at Aqueduct
We have these 5/2 Morning Line Claimers today
Code:
1 12-16-2018 2nd race 6 Monteleone (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Dirt
2 12-16-2018 3rd race 1 Big Thicket (NY) Claiming One Mile L Rice 5/2# Dirt
3 12-16-2018 3rd race 1A Fillet of Sole (KY) Claiming One Mile J Servis 5/2# Dirt
4 12-16-2018 5th race 1 Salty Smile (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs R R Rodriguez 5/2# Dirt
5 12-16-2018 6th race 5 Starship Zeus (KY) Claiming One Mile C Baker 5/2# Dirt
I am particularly interested in Rodriguez's horse in the 5th race
#1 Salty Smile
Let's see how he does today at the Big A!!!
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The 5/2 Claimers on the Sloppy surface today only got 1 win going 1 for 4 today
However, playing across the board got you a 48% return per $2 win place and show wager
Rodriguez's horse #1 Salty Smile disappointed and was off the board in the 5th today
Congratulations to those who saw the #6 Monteleone play today you got $14.60 across the board!!!
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12-16-2018, 09:13 PM
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#55
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 164
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Can we agree that the "Official Compilation" is for win only?
Of course, it would be interesting to see the 'across the board' record as well.
Should there also be a running compilation of your 'Best Bets' like Salty Smile in the Aqueduct 5th race today?
Best,
Wiz
__________________
"God hath written the language of the Universe in Mathematics" - Galileo
Last edited by Wizard of Odds; 12-16-2018 at 09:17 PM.
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12-16-2018, 09:19 PM
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#56
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wizard of Odds
Can we agree that the "Official Compilation" is for win only?
Of course, it would be interesting to see the 'across the board' record as well.
Best,
Wiz
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Yeah I was thinking of that suppose the across the board ROI is better than the win ROI would that not count?
Much of what I like to do is across the board, not just win, my thinking is that you don't have to necessarily pick winners to make money
Also does BRIS and the other folks keep track of their across the board returns?
Last edited by TheOracle; 12-16-2018 at 09:28 PM.
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12-16-2018, 09:27 PM
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#57
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 164
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Yeah I was thinking of that suppose the across the board ROI is better than the win ROI would that not count?
Much of what I like to do is across the board not just win my thinking is that you don't have to pick winners to make money
Also does BRIS and the other folks keep track of their across the board returns?
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How about you keep track both ways? Of course the 'across the board' hit rate will be much higher than for just win, but over the long run, the expected ROI will be about the same. Not exactly the same, but similar.
__________________
"God hath written the language of the Universe in Mathematics" - Galileo
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12-17-2018, 10:35 AM
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#58
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 164
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I'd just like to point out that if your long term win ROI were .83 and your long term 'across the board' ROI were .94, then your optimal betting strategy (aside from, perhaps, not betting) would be to bet only Place and Show where you would be around break-even. However, I think this scenario is unlikely. If this were true, then you want to look at the ROI for the Place and Show slots separately.
Another consideration is that the Place and (especially) Show pools have much less money in them than the Win pool. Each dollar you bet in the Place and Show pool has has a greater chance of lowering the payout price. For example, $200 bet to Show in a Turf Paradise race might lower the payout from $3.00 to $2.80. This effect alone would lower the expected future ROI from what you might have seen from your long-term historical studies when you actually tried to make money from your ideas.
__________________
"God hath written the language of the Universe in Mathematics" - Galileo
Last edited by Wizard of Odds; 12-17-2018 at 10:37 AM.
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12-19-2018, 12:40 PM
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#59
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wizard of Odds
I'd just like to point out that if your long term win ROI were .83 and your long term 'across the board' ROI were .94, then your optimal betting strategy (aside from, perhaps, not betting) would be to bet only Place and Show where you would be around break-even. However, I think this scenario is unlikely. If this were true, then you want to look at the ROI for the Place and Show slots separately.
Another consideration is that the Place and (especially) Show pools have much less money in them than the Win pool. Each dollar you bet in the Place and Show pool has has a greater chance of lowering the payout price. For example, $200 bet to Show in a Turf Paradise race might lower the payout from $3.00 to $2.80. This effect alone would lower the expected future ROI from what you might have seen from your long-term historical studies when you actually tried to make money from your ideas.
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Hey Wiz
Give me a few days time to come up with this
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12-19-2018, 01:06 PM
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#60
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 164
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Hey Wiz
Give me a few days time to come up with this
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Of course ... Hope it shows BIG BUCKS!
__________________
"God hath written the language of the Universe in Mathematics" - Galileo
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