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Old 06-23-2012, 08:35 PM   #76
Buchan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Native Texan III
Vets checked BC over immediately after race and stated she was absolutely fine. She always has had bad front legs and one spays out.

Before racing, jockey stated ground was absolutely perfect.
Nolan had already experienced Ascot in earlier races. The uphill track would ease the stress on her front legs and the excellent grass cover and yielding turf suit her huge weight and power.

Nolan only stopped riding for one stride as the mare was tiring. That had absolutely no effect on her racing speed. She was whipped several times once the runners up started to close too tightly and was fully able to compete to the line.
She ran a 10.84 sectional penultimate furlong - so absolutely nothing wrong with her physically.

Horses coming from Europe to Breeders Cup in California still win.

"It is now commonplace for horses to travel more than 30 hours in a plane, stopping a couple of times, touching down in a new environment, and then being asked to produce their best. It is commonplace, but still risky, as it can all go terribly wrong if the horse takes fright or if the dreaded travel sickness strikes.
Thankfully, Nelly, or the Wonder from Down Under as Black Caviar is known, hardly turned a hair on her journey and when they unzipped her specially-designed Lycra suit, custom-made to aid blood movement during the flight, the mare was able to quickly settle in to her new stable at Abingdon Place on Newmarket’s Bury Road and continue her preparation for her biggest assignment yet. She even had a brisk gallop earlier this week to clear her wind and stretch her legs."

Not competing in UK July Cup to make amends but going straight home - so owners/trainer have no confidence that it was just an off day.

you don't win 22 running unless you are very good.
moody never wanted to take her to ascot in the first place, the owners did.
regardless of the where's or why's that was NOT the real bc of that i am 100% certain.
quite a few australian horses have won that race previously(and much more easily), and not one of them is remotely as good as bc is(or was), not even in the same ball park.
i fell robbed in a way, because here we have people denying her greatness on the strength of one run.

my perspective....horses are to me numbers and that's all they are.
for 40 years numbers only, and this is the only horse that ever ever made me see racing in any other way.
in fact despite never betting one cent on her, i am always nervous before she races, in that she may get beaten.
and she affects many people this way in australia, even people that have never had any interest in racing previously.

so forgive me, if it pi__es me off if people are trying to deny her.
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Old 06-23-2012, 08:39 PM   #77
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Here's the bottom line: For whatever reason, Black Caviar, by her lofty standards, ran a decidedly sub-par race but comes away with a Group 1 win at Royal Ascot, as was her mission. Australia is the happiest of islands right now.
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Old 06-23-2012, 09:38 PM   #78
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Was it subpar? Or was she always a 125 timeform horse running against 100's?
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Old 06-23-2012, 09:49 PM   #79
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It was a subpar performance, no question. She is 10 lengths better than what she showed today.
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Old 06-23-2012, 09:57 PM   #80
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Did anyone think she looked off after the race? I would cite myself as less than competent to assess such things, but to this untrained eye, she didn't look comfortable walking around after the race...to me anyway...

Plus I don't know what she normally looks like after a race, as I haven't watched her intently post-race before...
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Old 06-23-2012, 10:14 PM   #81
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Your eyes did not deceive you. That was NOT Black Caviar.
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Old 06-23-2012, 10:14 PM   #82
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Did anyone think she looked off after the race? I would cite myself as less than competent to assess such things, but to this untrained eye, she didn't look comfortable walking around after the race...to me anyway...

Plus I don't know what she normally looks like after a race, as I haven't watched her intently post-race before...
lots of people that know about those types of thing(not me), and are familiar with the horse, said she looked lame in the near fore afterwards.

that the vets cleared her is irrelevant i think.
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Old 06-23-2012, 10:22 PM   #83
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Originally Posted by Some_One
Was it subpar? Or was she always a 125 timeform horse running against 100's?
dream a little dream.
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Old 06-23-2012, 11:24 PM   #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buchan
dream a little dream.
Why is it so unfathomable that she may not be as good as the hype.Just because she beat Hay List 67 times?If I beat up my 2 brothers 22 times that doesn't make me the toughest guy in the town, just the toughest guy in my house.Then on my mission to prove I'm the toughest guy in town I barely win my first fight because it was cold out and I don't like the cold,plus my hand hurt because it was numb and I had a cough .Then instead of fighting the next guy I go home so I can get back to beating up my brothers.

I get that Aussies take it personally because its a sort of national pride but Ortensia didn't fare too well and I have a feeling if Hay List were to try he wouldn't perform to expectations.
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Old 06-23-2012, 11:41 PM   #85
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Why is it so unfathomable that she may not be as good as the hype.Just because she beat Hay List 67 times?If I beat up my 2 brothers 22 times that doesn't make me the toughest guy in the town, just the toughest guy in my house.Then on my mission to prove I'm the toughest guy in town I barely win my first fight because it was cold out and I don't like the cold,plus my hand hurt because it was numb and I had a cough .Then instead of fighting the next guy I go home so I can get back to beating up my brothers.

I get that Aussies take it personally because its a sort of national pride but Ortensia didn't fare too well and I have a feeling if Hay List were to try he wouldn't perform to expectations.
ortensia is nothing much at all, so there goes your national pride!!
hay list though is(or was) very good.
all the other horses that have preceded her(choisir, takeover target, scenic blast, miss andretti, starspangledbanner, etc, etc)to ascot, are so far inferior to her in ability it does not matter......so again, that's national pride out the door.

why is it so hard for you to think she may have had something wrong?
or even just an off day.

but the main reason i know, is because i know how good i am at classifying horses ability wise.
never written a book, never put anything on paper, all in my head.
but the chief of my syndicate last month said i was the most knowledgeable time and class person in the world, and he has the money to prove it!
did i tell you i was modest too?
good night.
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Old 06-24-2012, 03:51 AM   #86
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Black Caviar did run to form in the Diamond Jubilee. Her two runs in Adelaide before leaving Australia she ran quite poorly by her previous standards. She lost about 4L to 5L I reckon in those runs vs her form before that. I posted about this on one of the Black Caviar threads on this board after her first run in Adelaide back on 28th April. But this was not just my opinion. Here is a posting from the BHA Handicapper's blog from 12th June

http://www.racehorsesrace.com/bha-ha...pers-blog.html

"Her current rating in Australia is 130 and my colleague Greg Pearson has done plenty of work in assessing her performances over the last 18 months.

He has her running a best of 132 in March 2011 and in her most recent two starts he has her running to figures of 122 and 123 where it could be argued that the figures she was able to post were limited by the opposition she faced."

Greg Pearson (whoever he is) has it correct. Black Caviar lost 4L to 5L in her two runs before leaving Australia and looks to have continued that form last night. She might even have dropped her rating slightly again as the same blog entry gives Moonlight Cloud a rating of 118. But a loss of a length or so could be explained due to the travel

Soul has run 4th last night beaten 1.25L. Soul is a former Australian horse who won 3 from 12 in Australia. His best effort was a decent Listed Stakes win before he left. His best Australian form would rate him about 6L or so behind Black Caviar's form in Australia before her Adelaide runs. So again if Soul has run to about his best Australian form it points to Black Caviar losing 5L. It all fits together

As for Ortensia failing on the Tuesday. Well she had run well twice in overseas races before Tuesday. She won in Dubai the start before beating Joy and Fun (who has recently beaten Little Bridge the winner of Tuesday's race ) and Sole Power who ran 3rd on Tuesday. She also finished only 1.8L behind JJ The Jet Plane and Rocket Man at Sha Tin in the HK International back in December 2010. The start before this HK G1 race Ortensia had run into Black Caviar at Flemington and finished 3rd beaten by 6.3 lengths. Ortensia did not run badly this day at Flemington but ran to her normal form. What happened to Ortensia last Tuesday I don't know. She simply failed as sometimes happened. After racing in Dubai she had been stuck overseas and not been able to return to Australia I don't think as that was the situation Black Caviar would have faced if she had gone to Dubai.

Anyways so now Black Caviar has put in 3 ordinary runs in a row. These ordinary runs are still good enough to win weak G1 races or G3 races. But if she keeps running like this she will get beaten very soon
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Old 06-24-2012, 04:29 AM   #87
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she has suffered muscle tears it has just been announced.
so there is the reason she was nearly beaten.....but nearly is not quite enough is it?
pity, but it does explain why she was unimpressive.
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Old 06-24-2012, 04:42 AM   #88
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Originally Posted by Seabiscuit@AR
Black Caviar did run to form in the Diamond Jubilee. Her two runs in Adelaide before leaving Australia she ran quite poorly by her previous standards. She lost about 4L to 5L I reckon in those runs vs her form before that. I posted about this on one of the Black Caviar threads on this board after her first run in Adelaide back on 28th April. But this was not just my opinion. Here is a posting from the BHA Handicapper's blog from 12th June

http://www.racehorsesrace.com/bha-ha...pers-blog.html

"Her current rating in Australia is 130 and my colleague Greg Pearson has done plenty of work in assessing her performances over the last 18 months.

He has her running a best of 132 in March 2011 and in her most recent two starts he has her running to figures of 122 and 123 where it could be argued that the figures she was able to post were limited by the opposition she faced."

Greg Pearson (whoever he is) has it correct. Black Caviar lost 4L to 5L in her two runs before leaving Australia and looks to have continued that form last night. She might even have dropped her rating slightly again as the same blog entry gives Moonlight Cloud a rating of 118. But a loss of a length or so could be explained due to the travel

Soul has run 4th last night beaten 1.25L. Soul is a former Australian horse who won 3 from 12 in Australia. His best effort was a decent Listed Stakes win before he left. His best Australian form would rate him about 6L or so behind Black Caviar's form in Australia before her Adelaide runs. So again if Soul has run to about his best Australian form it points to Black Caviar losing 5L. It all fits together

As for Ortensia failing on the Tuesday. Well she had run well twice in overseas races before Tuesday. She won in Dubai the start before beating Joy and Fun (who has recently beaten Little Bridge the winner of Tuesday's race ) and Sole Power who ran 3rd on Tuesday. She also finished only 1.8L behind JJ The Jet Plane and Rocket Man at Sha Tin in the HK International back in December 2010. The start before this HK G1 race Ortensia had run into Black Caviar at Flemington and finished 3rd beaten by 6.3 lengths. Ortensia did not run badly this day at Flemington but ran to her normal form. What happened to Ortensia last Tuesday I don't know. She simply failed as sometimes happened. After racing in Dubai she had been stuck overseas and not been able to return to Australia I don't think as that was the situation Black Caviar would have faced if she had gone to Dubai.

Anyways so now Black Caviar has put in 3 ordinary runs in a row. These ordinary runs are still good enough to win weak G1 races or G3 races. But if she keeps running like this she will get beaten very soon
that the adelaide runs were not so good would likely have nothing to do with ability.
you do what you need to do to get the job done and that's sufficient.
there is no sense pushing out when you don't have to.
it's a bit rich to expect the same high ratings when racing against crabs as you would when racing against relatively much better opponents.

measuring horse against horse is not that meaningful either, as conditions from one race to the next are rarely replicated.
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Old 06-24-2012, 05:45 AM   #89
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Buchan

It is possible the Adelaide runs were below par as the opposition was so weak and Black Caviar was not asked to do a lot. This is the view taken on the BHA Handicapper's blog. But the problem I have with this theory is that Black Caviar always travelled so easily in her races before. When she won the Lightning in 2011 (probably her best ever performance) it felt like she did it without being asked for much effort and was running within herself. Look also at other huge performances by other horses. When Hareeba was on one of his good days and smashing elite fields by many lengths it looked like he was doing it with minimum effort

If you look at BC's last run before leaving Australia she only managed to beat We're Gonna Rock by 1.3L. We're Gonna Rock has only won 4 from 14 and his best ever performance outside this race was winning an Adelaide G3 race (and Adelaide racing is about the weakest in Australia out of the major venues). We're Gonna Rock's form is on par with a horse like Soul whose peak run was a Listed stakes win in Melbourne. Black Caviar has beaten these two horses by 1.3L her last two runs and that form lines up perfectly

Black Caviar turns 6YO in about 5 weeks on August 1st. When Goldikova turned 6YO her form dropped noticeably and her final year of racing she was not the same horse as previous years. Goldikova never lost form as badly as what Black Caviar has but her performance levels did drop as she aged. Ageing is at least part of the reason for Black Caviar's performance level dropping. There may be other reasons too

But people who follow UK and USA racing don't know much about ageing with their top horses these days as they all retire after about 10 starts. Look at Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another retired after only 7 starts
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Old 06-24-2012, 06:22 AM   #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buchan
ortensia is nothing much at all, so there goes your national pride!!
hay list though is(or was) very good.
all the other horses that have preceded her(choisir, takeover target, scenic blast, miss andretti, starspangledbanner, etc, etc)to ascot, are so far inferior to her in ability it does not matter......so again, that's national pride out the door.

why is it so hard for you to think she may have had something wrong?
or even just an off day.

but the main reason i know, is because i know how good i am at classifying horses ability wise.
never written a book, never put anything on paper, all in my head.
but the chief of my syndicate last month said i was the most knowledgeable time and class person in the world, and he has the money to prove it!
did i tell you i was modest too?
good night.

Oh ok I believe you then.The president of my elk club once called me the smartest person he knew.I could remember facts and things all in my head.



Btw its not hard to classify horses when this is the result.

Black Caviar/Hay List/Buffering
Black Caviar/Hay List/Buffering
Black Caviar/Hay List/Another Great horse but not as good as BC horse

Last edited by ten2oneormore; 06-24-2012 at 06:23 AM.
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