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View Poll Results: Will Brick and Mortar only sports betting help horse racing?
If Brick and Mortar Only for 2 years it will help horse racing. 12 52.17%
If NOT Brick and mortar only it will hurt horse racing. 11 47.83%
Voters: 23. This poll is closed

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Old 05-14-2018, 12:53 PM   #16
onefast99
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Originally Posted by Andy Asaro View Post
How do you know it's untrue in Ca. ? Anything can happen hear and it's usually not in the best interest of the Customer.
I stated NJ in my response to you. I have been following NJ SW since 2011. I haven’t seen much on California in regards to how they will regulate it. Are they even ready to move forward now?
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Remember the NJ horseman got you here now do the right thing with the purses!
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Old 05-14-2018, 12:55 PM   #17
Andy Asaro
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I stated NJ in my response to you. I have been following NJ SW since 2011. I haven’t seen much on California in regards to how they will regulate it. Are they even ready to move forward now?
Don't know. But I do know they will screw it up if you look at their PP's.
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Old 05-14-2018, 01:07 PM   #18
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Old 05-14-2018, 01:39 PM   #19
Poindexter
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imo racing as it currently is doesn't offer a lot to the sports bettor other than the superexotics. Carryovers in super high 5's and pick 5's and pick 6's give the player very competitive pools and a chance to win a lot or a small amount. I think those might appeal to some who haven't tackled horse racing. That being said most of us have played this game much of our life. I guess the question I have is does this game offer the sharp gambling public enough to make them want to make a huge time investment to learn it? Even if it does, will their action sustain or will the constant 20-40% roi drain knock them out of the game before they have a chance to really excel at it.

Also in the whale age, I don't know if the numbers change that much. So new blood comes in and brings up the public betting 20%, but in turn the Whales will up their betting and the game remains similar as we have today. The industry will obviously be smiling at that moment but how long before current and new horse racing customers filter off into sports betting. My guess is too many will filter off too quickly. I don't know how this game can expect to compete with takeouts over 30%(factoring in the whales) against an industry that I assume will have takeouts of 4.5%. Even if they had do to go up to -115 on each side to pay off the leagues they still would only be at a 6.5% takeout in sports betting which is still paltry relative to racing.

It goes back to my $20 burger analogy. Unless I put cocaine in those burgers, I am not going to do a lot of business when IN and Out and Shake Shack are my neighbors. Obviously the $20 vs a $5 burger is more obvious to the public than comparing racing's takeout vs sports betting takeout. But over time they will figure it out.

IMO, if racing thinks they can continue to operate as they do or have in the past, and this will be some kind of unexpected windfall that will save the day, they are sadly mistaken. Today, more than any other time in this sports history is the day they should eliminate rebates and bring takeout down to the right levels(8%wps, 10% exacta, 12% other exotic). But that isn't happening, so I will watch this unfold just like I watch any other movie I have seen 7 times.

What is that quote about doing the same thing and expecting a different result?
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Old 05-14-2018, 01:48 PM   #20
AlsoEligible
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IMO, if racing thinks they can continue to operate as they do or have in the past, and this will be some kind of unexpected windfall that will save the day, they are sadly mistaken.
Good post, and unfortunately this is exactly what will happen. Just like the industry did with slot revenue, they'll go their state legislatures hat in hand. Giving the same song and dance about how sports betting can be a rising tide that lifts all boats, and if they can just get a small cut of the revenue (or limit betting to their facilities), then it will boost purses, which in turn will boost field sizes, which will save the game.

All the same arguments we heard a decade earlier. And if legislators fall for it again, a decade from now tracks will have received hundreds of millions in additional revenue with nothing to show for it.

Even as someone inside the industry, I don't want racing to have any part of this. It's 2018, and once CA legalizes sports betting, there is no valid reason why I shouldn't be able to make those bets from my phone or from my home PC. If Golden Gate or Santa Anita wants more foot traffic, then they should come up with another way to get people through the gates without arbitrarily restricting how people can bet on a totally unrelated game.
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Old 05-14-2018, 02:05 PM   #21
RunForTheRoses
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Will Hill figures for Nevada for 2017

Money bet $1,152,700,000
Money won 72,900,000
Hold rate 6.3%

https://www.williamhillplc.com/media...-23-feb-18.pdf

Page 13 of 2017 annual report.

Allan
Thinking about it further the volume should be decent being that it is the only place in the northeast megalopolis to have sports legally with the exception of handcuffed Delaware (although i guess this ruling applies to them as well). A lot of people live within a 2 hour drive of Monmouth.
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Old 05-14-2018, 02:14 PM   #22
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I stated NJ in my response to you. I have been following NJ SW since 2011. I haven’t seen much on California in regards to how they will regulate it. Are they even ready to move forward now?
From what I've heard the Indian casinos in California will be making a big push. They hold a lot of power in the state.
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Old 05-14-2018, 02:24 PM   #23
AltonKelsey
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Maybe this forces racing to stop robbing the players with high takeouts. Yes, anything over 10% is thievery , and maybe even that is too high.
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Old 05-14-2018, 02:28 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by RunForTheRoses View Post
Thinking about it further the volume should be decent being that it is the only place in the northeast megalopolis to have sports legally with the exception of handcuffed Delaware (although i guess this ruling applies to them as well). A lot of people live within a 2 hour drive of Monmouth.
The novelty factor alone should be good for some money alone.

will be the lone entrant in the race for the bucks early.

if Monmouth can some weasel the revenues on internet side of sports betting in New Jersey, that would also be huge. Mobil wagering would be huge. Look at how good the casinos are doing with mobile casinos.

Allan
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Old 05-14-2018, 02:40 PM   #25
biggestal99
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Good post, and unfortunately this is exactly what will happen. Just like the industry did with slot revenue, they'll go their state legislatures hat in hand. Giving the same song and dance about how sports betting can be a rising tide that lifts all boats, and if they can just get a small cut of the revenue (or limit betting to their facilities), then it will boost purses, which in turn will boost field sizes, which will save the game.

All the same arguments we heard a decade earlier. And if legislators fall for it again, a decade from now tracks will have received hundreds of millions in additional revenue with nothing to show for it.

Even as someone inside the industry, I don't want racing to have any part of this. It's 2018, and once CA legalizes sports betting, there is no valid reason why I shouldn't be able to make those bets from my phone or from my home PC. If Golden Gate or Santa Anita wants more foot traffic, then they should come up with another way to get people through the gates without arbitrarily restricting how people can bet on a totally unrelated game.
I disagree with sports betting being totally unrelated. In the UK, sports books are integrated into the race tracks. as I have written before I was truly amazed the first time in a sports book at Wincanton Track in the UK. I was blown away. Of course I was equally blown away at a high street book. They took bets on everything that wasnt nailed down.

Jersey has never profited from the casinos (just some crummy slot subsidies that dried up with the downhill slide of the Jersey casinos)

Sports Books and casinos are exclusive.

Casinos win by the house edge

Sports books win by making a good line and taking even action.

Allan
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Old 05-14-2018, 02:49 PM   #26
dilanesp
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The sports betting operators will charge their traditional takeouts unless required to take more by the state.

However, as I have discussed in earlier threads, there is a trend among sports book operators to adjust lines and takeouts to increase their percentage take. So takeout on sports bets will, over time, rise in one way or another. This will especially be true with football because it will be the most popular sport to bet on and the sports betting market is driven by compulsive gamblers.

Having said that, and despite my general skepticism of takeout cuts as a panacea in horse racing, it seems to me that this sort of competition should offer a decent reason for tracks to cut takeout, because sports betting so directly competes for betting dollars with horse racing among the sorts of bettors who like to "study" and "get an edge" before they bet.

So in my idealized scenarios, trends to increase takeout on sports betting should continue, and tracks should cut takeout to compete, until they converge on some sort of equilibrium.

In the real world, however, tracks are not going to cut takeout unless absolutely forced to, and they will lose business to sports betting.
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Old 05-14-2018, 03:59 PM   #27
AlsoEligible
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I disagree with sports betting being totally unrelated. In the UK, sports books are integrated into the race tracks. as I have written before I was truly amazed the first time in a sports book at Wincanton Track in the UK. I was blown away. Of course I was equally blown away at a high street book. They took bets on everything that wasnt nailed down.

Jersey has never profited from the casinos (just some crummy slot subsidies that dried up with the downhill slide of the Jersey casinos)

Sports Books and casinos are exclusive.

Casinos win by the house edge

Sports books win by making a good line and taking even action.

Allan
I have no issue with racetracks incorporating sports books into their facilities. I personally don't think it will lead to any tangible boost in track handle, but there's no harm in trying, and it should be an option for people who are going to the track anyway.

I just don't want tracks or OTBs to be the only way to make a sports bet. There's no reason that people shouldn't be able to also make bets through a licensed book online (just like an ADW), or even through a local brick and mortar set up for just for sports betting.

The problem with lumping sports into existing OTBs is some jurisdictions (namely CA) are pretty strict on where OTBs can legally operate - for example, there's a reason why there's no OTB in San Francisco, and it's not because the racing industry doesn't want one. There's also a lot of uncertainty surrounding the organization that operates Northern California OTBs (NCOTWINC); it may not be around by the end of this year, and the OTBs could sink with it. Which if that happens, what then? The only place to make a bet north of Bakersfield is Cal Expo or Golden Gate? This is just an example in my own state, but I'm sure similar issues exist in other states (like NYC not having an OTB network anymore).

If someone doesn't give a damn about racing and just wants to bet an NFL game, I don't see why that person should have to deal with all the incompetence and in-fighting that horseplayers put up with. Better to keep sports betting as separate as possible.

Racing finally has a competitor for gambling dollars the likes of which it has never seen before. In theory that should force the industry to confront its own demons and figure out how to survive....or it will go the way of the dodo. Capitalism 101. Personally, I'd rather have the industry's feet held to the fire, then watch them become a parasite on yet another form of gambling.
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Old 05-14-2018, 05:04 PM   #28
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All I want is them to fix the HD feed to the picnic area.

Thank you
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Old 05-14-2018, 06:22 PM   #29
Andy Asaro
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https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...ide-for-racing

Excerpt:

REVISITING THE CASE FOR FIXED ODDS
The key difference between pari-mutuel and fixed-odds betting is when the odds are set: for fixed-odds, the player locks in the odds at the time the bet is placed; while in pari-mutuel, the odds are set when the race begins. In the U.S., legal sports books will operate with fixed odds and possibly exchange wagering, which enables player-to-player fixed-odds betting. We need to reconsider whether a shift to fixed-odds betting would maximize the appeal of race betting to sports bettors.

In the UK, exchange betting for sports has appealed to younger players and arguably has expanded the universe of bettors. Fixed-odds or exchange betting would also address the concerns many current racing fans have with past-post odds changes (which would be expensive to address through changes to the tote systems) and lack of visibility to odds for exotic bets.

In jurisdictions, such as Australia and the UK that offer pari-mutuel betting in parallel with fixed-odds betting, handle has shifted steadily to fixed-odds. For example, in Australia, fixed-odds now represents 39% of Tabcorp's racing revenues vs. only 14% in 2013. Fixed-odds revenue in Australia has grown at 25% per year since 2013 while pari-mutuel revenue has decreased at 5%.

Although the UK commission on exchange betting is only 2%-5%, there is no barrier to U.S. states setting commissions at 10% or higher, allowing for host fees to tracks that are comparable to those under current pari-mutuel structures. For fixed-odds wagers, the same level of takeout could be accomplished through a royalty or similar fee levied on handle.

In a fixed-odds system the bookmaker takes the financial risk of underwriting bets, which is why sports books set limits on wagers and have sophisticated systems and staff to analyze and manage risk. For U.S. racing, operators would need either to develop those skills or outsource the trading/risk management function.

Operators could offer fixed odds for single-race bets while using pari-mutuel pools for multi-race bets (which have the potential for multi-million-dollar payoffs).

Fixed-odds systems make it easier to bet against a horse and therefore could elevate the risk to competitive integrity. Therefore, a shift to fixed-odds would heighten the need to elevate and standardize testing, monitoring, and enforcement of racing rules.
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Old 05-14-2018, 06:34 PM   #30
Denny
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Does anybody else think the wording of the poll is confusing?
And where did '2 years' come from?
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