Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 05-20-2018, 11:02 PM   #31
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote View Post
What is so difficult about starting the race once all the wagers have been received?
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
From 2016 on when to stop the betting.

COMMISSIONER AUERBACH: No. I was saying the whole idea is not logical because you can -- if you think you can close it off 5, 10, 15 seconds before and you have any kind of delay, and this is horse racing, so you’re guaranteed to have something happen that you didn’t anticipate, then you arbitrarily cut your handle for no reason. I mean, because if it’s -- if, you know, if something happens in the gate, if things are happening -- COMMISSIONER KRIKORIAN: Yeah.
COMMISSIONER AUERBACH: -- you still want people to wager. It’s, you know --
COMMISSIONER KRIKORIAN: You could have a horse come out of the gate or --
COMMISSIONER AUERBACH: Yeah. And it happens all the time. So cutting it off with so many seconds you can --
CHAIRMAN CHOPER: Well, I know. I just -- I agree.
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR BAEDEKER: That was what --
CHAIRMAN CHOPER: I agree.
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR BAEDEKER: -- happened before.
COMMISSIONER AUERBACH: Yeah. You can’t do that.
CHAIRMAN WINNER: Yeah. I mean, you’re just --
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR BAEDEKER: If the horse got scratched --
CHAIRMAN WINNER: -- .you’re cutting handle. You’re just cutting the handle
COMMISSIONER AUERBACH: You’re cutting your handle, correct.
CHAIRMAN WINNER: Right.
That is the difficulty.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-20-2018, 11:09 PM   #32
highnote
Registered User
 
highnote's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
That is the difficulty.
I get your point. The powers that be really don't want to help.

Just keep the windows open until the bets stop coming in. Harness racing does this all the time. The toteboard says zero minutes to post and then 5 minutes later the race begings -- sometimes longer. It's obvious they're keeping the windows open to give people more time to bet.
highnote is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-20-2018, 11:25 PM   #33
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote View Post
I get your point. The powers that be really don't want to help.

Just keep the windows open until the bets stop coming in. Harness racing does this all the time. The toteboard says zero minutes to post and then 5 minutes later the race begings -- sometimes longer. It's obvious they're keeping the windows open to give people more time to bet.
So does GP. Santa Anita is getting there (same owners).
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-21-2018, 02:52 AM   #34
AlsoEligible
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 234
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCOURTNEY View Post
Account Wagering Fraud. Fraud includes fixing the winner in a race, taking advantage of hidden data to cash in on parimutuel pools, using insiders (who are prohibited from wagering or making certain types of wagers), using
trainers or jockeys, or associates on their behalf, wagering against a horse they ride. Technology can assist in analysis, require/force ADW's to submit wagering logs (transaction level) to a CENTRAL regional or national authority for auditing. Not an odds display issue.
Already happens. The TRPB receives transaction-level logs at the close of every race; not just from ADWs, but every wagering site in the country - and some international locations. These logs are sent in real-time, and aside from being used to detect odds manipulation, can also immediately flag instances of past-posting.

Quote:
Past Posting. Past posting is a situation where wagers are placed after a race has started. Past posting may be due to a technical issue where a stop wagering signal fails to be initiated or fails to be registered, to a failure to activate the prescribed stop wagering procedure in a timely manner, or
to a failure to communicate a stop wagering command to a guest wagering location. This can be technically addressed, invert the advertisement of a stop command to a request to participate command from the remote sites, or "grant" pool availability for a certain seconds per cycle in sliding windows, two-way handshake, implement true transaction acknowledgement instead of pool total updates (the same source of the security issues) the list goes on and on and on. This does cause an odds display issue. These incidents should be publicly reported by the tote companies.
Agreed that a transactional protocol makes more sense in today's industry than one based on pool totals. There were reasons for that when ITSP was developed in the 90s, but those limitations have long been eliminated. Other countries like UK, France, HK, etc all use transactional protocols, and North America should also move that way.

Also agree that more transparency is needed. Whether it's the totes, tracks, TRPB....when technical failures do lead to past-posting, it should be made public. Including the track affected, the remote site, and the underlying cause. Over time, if issues keep being reported at the same site, then a pattern can be seen and further action can be taken.

Quote:
Cancel Delay. A Cancel Delay is a wager that is allowed to be cancelled more than a reasonable time after purchase and/or after wagering on a race has ended. Cancel Delay fraud is associated with odds manipulation. It
results in gaining an unfair advantage by observing the beginning of a race before deciding whether to hold or cancel bets. This does cause an odds display issue. These incidents should be publicly reported by the tote companies and investigated with published findings.
Cancel delays have been almost entirely eliminated over the past 10-15 years. There's only a single facility in the US - Oaklawn - which still allows wagers to be cancelled after a race closes (within 5 seconds, if I recall correctly).

Quote:
Odds Manipulation. One betting strategy is to monitor betting “action” – the increase in the number of wagers which lead to the dynamic changing of odds. One way action increases is with a contestant that has excessive
money wagered on it by other bettors (a “bet down” contestant). Other players looking for value or overlays will bet against a “bet down” contestant and will instead bet on an alternative. This bettor will react to the win odds
and base a selection from readily available public information about contestants. In addition, an odds manipulator may even cancel the manipulating wagers – thus recovering the very funds used for the purpose of odds manipulation! The removal of those wagers in turn could contribute to a late drop in odds and payoffs. Obviously, this scenario could generate
adverse reaction from law-abiding fans, ranging from a perception of a “fixed race” to a perception of “past posting” -- making a bet after the official time when no more bets are to be taken. When combined with robotic wagering – which provides an instantaneous view of the odds for all other pools – odds
manipulation can be achieved by placing a large wager or set of wagers just before the wagers of traditional slower patrons. This is another type of “front running” – where one player takes unfair advantage of other players using
advance knowledge of pending wagers. This is similar to the front-running situations associated with high frequency trading, “naked access,” and flickering quotes associated with today’s financial markets. This is the same technique used by the Flash Boys of Wall Street fame, horse racing pools have the same problem with some receiving signal before others. It effects the odds displayed, it can be technically solved, everything to the contrary is excuse making.
100% incorrect. Tote companies in North America have one method for generating odds, and those odds are sent to everyone the same way - and at the same time - regardless of whether you're a robo-better, an ADW, a TV trailer generating displays, or an infield board at Santa Anita.

Of course when updated odds and pool totals are sent across the network every 30-60 seconds (depending on the track), the computer teams are able to process that information quicker than someone standing trackside, and there is an advantage there. But they're not seeing anything updating in "real time". The current protocol simply doesn't support it...which is yet another reason to move to transaction-level instead of pool totals.

Even if the tote companies had somehow managed to develop a real-time feed, it wouldn't be kept exclusive to ~20 syndicates. They'd sell it to every ADW who wanted to use it. And every track and regulatory body who are getting pelted with complaints about late odds changes would be demanding that the totes turn it on for them. But again, such a feed doesn't exist.

Source: Over a decade working for tote, several years working with whale teams, and several years sitting on the TRA2020 technical committee.

Quote:
Performance Fraud. When a horse wins at long odds -- contrary to expectations based on past performances -- or conversely, is bet down to a level inconsistent with its past performances, there is good reason to open a formal investigation. In the past, investigations were only occasionally pursued, based on anecdotal and fortuitous information sources. This is because of the complexity, cost, and tedium associated with obtaining and evaluating complex wagering and other data relating to a suspect race. Needs an investigatory solution. In this spirit there is the Dead Contender Scenario. The easiest way to illegally fix a race (and cash in on parimutuel pools) is to illegally arrange a favorite or second favorite win. Fixing a race, by having a so-called “Dead Contender” lose, requires only a very small number of people – maybe only one. Exotic pool bets based on the outcome of one event, with high payoffs when the favorites are off the board, are most vulnerable. Investigatory body needed, do we have one?
Not really my area of the game, so I'm not sure what the best way is to address this. Getting a central authoritative body to investigate (if we don't already have one) would be a good first step.

I'd say a couple of the issues you're listing have been addressed, such transaction logs for auditing, and cancel delays. There are others where more work is needed. Namely past-posting, where the industry needs to be much more transparent in order to combat public perception.

As for your longest paragraphs about robotic wagering, there are some fundamental misunderstandings about what tools the whales have access to. Aside from this thread, most of the things I see them accused of all over this board (past-posting, "spoofing" wagers, real time odds, trifecta and superfecta probables, etc) are all wrong.

I do think there are steps that can be taken to bring the public back onto a more level playing field, and it's a conversation that should be had. But it's not going to be a productive one until all sides can at least agree/understand what tools the whales actually have....and I think the CHRB is going to run into this same problem when they talk about it on Thursday.

Last edited by AlsoEligible; 05-21-2018 at 02:53 AM.
AlsoEligible is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-21-2018, 03:30 AM   #35
BCOURTNEY
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 686
To further explain Cancel Delays, I meant not only preventing cancels after the race was off, I'm talking about not allowing any wager to be canceled after a fixed period of time, say 30-60 seconds, the thought being a legitimate mistake can be detected in that amount of time after that it's committed, whereas if someone is manipulating the odds board you wouldn't want a wager to age 10 or 20 minutes then 1 MTP and allow it to be canceled, thus allowing pool manipulation, the premise is largely aged wagers that are canceled are relative attempts to shift odds, a lockout period makes a lot of sense. I disagree with you about the front running activities of the whales currently as the system exists, and their speed of access to the pool information, I don't advocate they have secret pool info either, but they are both getting pool data faster and processing it faster. The one problem with sending transnational logs after the race, rather than having a transaction based system is the largest security issue for the entire system, it's the basis for all of the problem activity, it's simply a decision to leave a gaping hole in security and deal with whatever flavor of attack gets engineered now or in the future, it's quite ridiculous. How many ways does one need to be creative and fleece a system if someone agrees to send out a detailed log of $5000 worth of transactions of their own creation -- after a race is completed -- by promising you $5000 right now? That is what the public doesn't understand, their are operations promising funds say 10,000 to 100,000 dollars worth to a track, then they send in the actual wager detail after the race, it's a comedy. This was the same nonsense that was used to exploit the pick 6 pool years ago.. hmm like 15 years ago, and yet 15 years later we still do post race audits.. what happened to plugging the hole, as clearly recommended in the early 2000's then again in 2008? So what happens when a problem is found? Is the public made aware of "...Hey guys we found an off shore operation that cashed a 300% ROI over $30,000 in pools you personally bet in last month, but hey don't worry we took care of it, no problem...". People do not understand what is going on, these issues have zero transparency. Anyways, you do mention past posting that is flagged and monitored for and odds manipulation as well -- yet some say it isn't occurring -- it's monitored for and the logs are looked at because it's possible the way they have the protocols right now --and it's happening -- why monitor and waste resources after the fact for what isn't possible right?

Agree with your the CHRB board meeting comment, but these are long standing issues, moving pool closure to an earlier time doesn't fix the transnational problem either, it's just a new goal post for the robotic teams to target, and they know that.

Excellent feedback, thanks!

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlsoEligible View Post
Already happens. The TRPB receives transaction-level logs at the close of every race; not just from ADWs, but every wagering site in the country - and some international locations. These logs are sent in real-time, and aside from being used to detect odds manipulation, can also immediately flag instances of past-posting.



Agreed that a transactional protocol makes more sense in today's industry than one based on pool totals. There were reasons for that when ITSP was developed in the 90s, but those limitations have long been eliminated. Other countries like UK, France, HK, etc all use transactional protocols, and North America should also move that way.

Also agree that more transparency is needed. Whether it's the totes, tracks, TRPB....when technical failures do lead to past-posting, it should be made public. Including the track affected, the remote site, and the underlying cause. Over time, if issues keep being reported at the same site, then a pattern can be seen and further action can be taken.



Cancel delays have been almost entirely eliminated over the past 10-15 years. There's only a single facility in the US - Oaklawn - which still allows wagers to be cancelled after a race closes (within 5 seconds, if I recall correctly).



100% incorrect. Tote companies in North America have one method for generating odds, and those odds are sent to everyone the same way - and at the same time - regardless of whether you're a robo-better, an ADW, a TV trailer generating displays, or an infield board at Santa Anita.

Of course when updated odds and pool totals are sent across the network every 30-60 seconds (depending on the track), the computer teams are able to process that information quicker than someone standing trackside, and there is an advantage there. But they're not seeing anything updating in "real time". The current protocol simply doesn't support it...which is yet another reason to move to transaction-level instead of pool totals.

Even if the tote companies had somehow managed to develop a real-time feed, it wouldn't be kept exclusive to ~20 syndicates. They'd sell it to every ADW who wanted to use it. And every track and regulatory body who are getting pelted with complaints about late odds changes would be demanding that the totes turn it on for them. But again, such a feed doesn't exist.

Source: Over a decade working for tote, several years working with whale teams, and several years sitting on the TRA2020 technical committee.



Not really my area of the game, so I'm not sure what the best way is to address this. Getting a central authoritative body to investigate (if we don't already have one) would be a good first step.

I'd say a couple of the issues you're listing have been addressed, such transaction logs for auditing, and cancel delays. There are others where more work is needed. Namely past-posting, where the industry needs to be much more transparent in order to combat public perception.

As for your longest paragraphs about robotic wagering, there are some fundamental misunderstandings about what tools the whales have access to. Aside from this thread, most of the things I see them accused of all over this board (past-posting, "spoofing" wagers, real time odds, trifecta and superfecta probables, etc) are all wrong.

I do think there are steps that can be taken to bring the public back onto a more level playing field, and it's a conversation that should be had. But it's not going to be a productive one until all sides can at least agree/understand what tools the whales actually have....and I think the CHRB is going to run into this same problem when they talk about it on Thursday.

Last edited by BCOURTNEY; 05-21-2018 at 03:41 AM.
BCOURTNEY is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-21-2018, 10:30 AM   #36
AndyC
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter View Post
I have argued this with you so many times, but you continue with this false belief. Given you believe this, why not raise takeout? Why only 15% to 20%, why not 30 to 40%. The Whales and those eligible are going to get their money back with rebates and since recreational players don't care, why stop at such paltry takeouts. Go for the gusto, it's just entertainment after all.

By the way how can you possibly get bored in this game. There is a race going off somewhere every 5 to 7 minutes for about 10 hours a day. The fastest handicapper in the world cannot keep up with it. Truth is that for most the ability to try to win over time is an act of futility and over time they realize that
and leave the game.
We have not argued this point. Perhaps defining terms would help. In my view there are professional players, serious players and recreational players. For the most part people on this forum fall into the serious player category.

If a takeout increase only affected the recreational player then it probably could be done. I doubt that many recreational players could tell you what the takeout rate is or even how the pari-mutuel system works.

You speak from your standpoint and not that of a recreational player. My comments pertained to recreational players at the racetrack. With 30 minutes between races they have little interest in taking a deep dive into the DRF and then the action lasts all of 1-2 minutes. Who could possibly get bored?

Contrast horse betting with sports betting. Everybody has an opinion on the probable outcome of a game. All they need to do is bring their opinions with
them to a sports book. Long losing streaks happen but they are rare because there are only 2 ways to bet, for or against, A or B. With horses it might be 1 through 12. Recreational players lose because it is a hard game.
To suggest that the whales are somehow chasing them away is nonsense.
AndyC is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-21-2018, 11:15 AM   #37
Poindexter
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,964
Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC View Post
We have not argued this point. Perhaps defining terms would help. In my view there are professional players, serious players and recreational players. For the most part people on this forum fall into the serious player category.

If a takeout increase only affected the recreational player then it probably could be done. I doubt that many recreational players could tell you what the takeout rate is or even how the pari-mutuel system works.

You speak from your standpoint and not that of a recreational player. My comments pertained to recreational players at the racetrack. With 30 minutes between races they have little interest in taking a deep dive into the DRF and then the action lasts all of 1-2 minutes. Who could possibly get bored?

Contrast horse betting with sports betting. Everybody has an opinion on the probable outcome of a game. All they need to do is bring their opinions with
them to a sports book. Long losing streaks happen but they are rare because there are only 2 ways to bet, for or against, A or B. With horses it might be 1 through 12. Recreational players lose because it is a hard game.
To suggest that the whales are somehow chasing them away is nonsense.
I will start a new thread on this subject so this thread stays on topic.
Poindexter is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-24-2018, 12:35 PM   #38
Andy Asaro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,789
Here's the link to listen live.

http://www.selectstreaming.com/live/chrb/audio.php

Here's the link to today's agenda

http://chrb.ca.gov/meeting_agendas.html
Andy Asaro is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-24-2018, 01:33 PM   #39
AlsoEligible
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 234
Quote:
If listening to CHRB meetings has taught me anything, it's to expect a lot of "discussion" and not so much "action."
And this goes exactly as I expected it to.

Baedeker gave a short speech/description of the issues. Highlighted that a poll of customers found that 65% believe that the odds changes are odds manipulation. Stated that all incidents are investigated, and always found to be legitimate wagers coming in before the race goes off, but the perception is an issue that still needs to be fixed.

Proposed a new rule mandating that final odds must be posted within 5 seconds of race closing, to try and force the issue for the tote companies.

Also briefly touched on the idea of giving average patrons the same "tote connectivity" that whales get. But no one expanded further on that idea, and again I don't know what this actually means.

After Baedeker spoke, Winner basically punted, taking no action on the proposed rule. Winner did say that the board would set up a new sub-committee specifically to deal with these topics.....so stay tuned, I guess.
AlsoEligible is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-24-2018, 05:14 PM   #40
Andy Asaro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,789
CHRB's Baedeker Wants Late Odds Changes Addressed

Baedeker recommends a rule requiring expedited reporting of win odds.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...nges-addressed
Andy Asaro is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-24-2018, 08:13 PM   #41
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro View Post
CHRB's Baedeker Wants Late Odds Changes Addressed

Baedeker recommends a rule requiring expedited reporting of win odds.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...nges-addressed
Ever hear the term "die on the vine"? If not, stay tuned to the resolution of this issue.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-25-2018, 09:29 AM   #42
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
But they are going to form a Sub-committee. Wow, the rank and file get a sub-committee.

MR. DATO: Three total. Three total. We’ve heard from our big players and they realize that they can get rebated more than that if they bet offshore or whatever.
CHAIRMAN CHOPER: Yes.
MR. DATO: However, it’s a gesture of good faith, and it’s been enough to keep guys betting through our through our -- through our pools. They say thank you, we appreciate it. It keeps them around.
CHAIRMAN CHOPER: You do that by simple responses --
23 MR. DATO: There’s not that many of them. We talk to them. CHAIRMAN CHOPER: You mean you canvass them all pretty fast?
MR. DATO: Pretty fast. And in addition, you know, we take care of our big-big whales with things, you know, meals and accommodations and such.

Maybe if the rank and file players bet more into their pools they will give out free popcorn to the first 50 people in the door. But I guess you have to "know the right people".
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-25-2018, 11:22 AM   #43
highnote
Registered User
 
highnote's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
Maybe if the rank and file players bet more into their pools they will give out free popcorn to the first 50 people in the door. But I guess you have to "know the right people".
highnote is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-25-2018, 11:29 AM   #44
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
I am more of this type of guy.

jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-25-2018, 01:23 PM   #45
Denny
Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote View Post
I get your point. The powers that be really don't want to help.

Just keep the windows open until the bets stop coming in. Harness racing does this all the time. The toteboard says zero minutes to post and then 5 minutes later the race begings -- sometimes longer. It's obvious they're keeping the windows open to give people more time to bet.
At some harness tracks they don't even come on to the track till it says 0 MTP.

I get a laugh out of the announcer sometimes when they come on the tack at 0 MTP and he then tells you it's '4 minutes to post'!
Denny is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:03 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.