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After the match with Deep Blue, GK said he could beat Deep Blue if he was allowed to study Deep Blue as much as Deep Blue was "allowed" to study him. So, maybe those that bet the win pool need to study up on what the whales are betting on and bet something else.
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I said the same thing awhile back.
Math/Computer guys are going to do a better job analyzing data, building models, and getting optimal bets in, but some of the game does not lend itself to number crunching because things change so rapidly or an answer requires subjective judgement.
If you are really good at judging horses in the paddock, you will probably have an edge over the math/computer guys even if they employ someone to help in that area.
If you are really good at picking up on biases by watching races and seeing how the horses are running in different paths, you should be able to pick up on things quicker than math/computer guys.
I'm going to guess that most computer models use speed figures because it's easier to input a number that tells you how well a horse ran than it is to subjectively analyze the quality of a field, watch the race, and see how horses with similar and different trips ran relative to each other.
Non computer players should be in good shape at pretty much anything that requires visual skills, subjective analysis, and a lot of experience.
