Past posting

[classhandicapper]

If you are worried about the price you are likely to get, just look at the Will Pays. That's what everyone does now. That helps a lot in predicting the last flash price swings.

The bigger problem is one of perception.

Clearly, a scientific study needs to be done on Will Pays, last flashes, final odds, and winners. You want to pay special attention to the "winners" to see that they are following the Will Pays in the same exact way as the losers. Do the "winners" rise in price if the Will Pays suggest they should as often as fall?

Absent that study, even less cynical minds are going to be suspicious of past posting.

Past posting is not a fable.

It was going on all the time in harness racing decades ago.

We know about the hacking case into the Breeders Cup Pick 6 in 2002.

We know there are incredibly sophisticated computer criminals out there.

It shouldn't be that hard for the industry to actually study the data, produce a report, and demonstrate that nothing illegal is going on.

[metro]

From Keeneland press release:

"In Keeneland’s 6thrace on Friday, there was a significant late odds shift on the winner, Early Mischief (3). Upon request from Keeneland, the Thoroughbred Racing Protective Bureau analyzed the wagering records. During the last cycle, 26% of the win pool was received ($61,000). Of this amount, $16,000 was wagered on the 3 horse, dropping his odds from 10-1 to 5-1.

Upon examination, several large win wagers were placed on the 3 horse just prior to post and those were reflected as the horses left the gate. Keeneland refreshes win odds every 10 seconds to give the customer as accurate a picture as possible.

All wagers were time stamped properly and were placed prior to the start of the race."


So basically what they are saying is that of the $16K bet on Early Mischief during the last "betting cycle" most all of it was within the last 10 seconds before the race was off and wagering was closed. Otherwise we would have seen odds more reflective of closing at 5-1 instead of 10-1.

Who bets that kind of money at the very last second when you obviously like a horse????

[SharpCat]

Originally Posted by metro

Who bets that kind of money at the very last second when you obviously like a horse????

I do. No matter how good my horse looks on paper they have to look good on the track, load into the gate well and be the proper price before I pull out my money.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

If you are worried about the price you are likely to get, just look at the Will Pays. That's what everyone does now. That helps a lot in predicting the last flash price swings.

The bigger problem is one of perception.

Clearly, a scientific study needs to be done on Will Pays, last flashes, final odds, and winners. You want to pay special attention to the "winners" to see that they are following the Will Pays in the same exact way as the losers. Do the "winners" rise in price if the Will Pays suggest they should as often as fall?

Absent that study, even less cynical minds are going to be suspicious of past posting.

Past posting is not a fable.

It was going on all the time in harness racing decades ago.

We know about the hacking case into the Breeders Cup Pick 6 in 2002.

We know there are incredibly sophisticated computer criminals out there.

It shouldn't be that hard for the industry to actually study the data, produce a report, and demonstrate that nothing illegal is going on.

Sharp post

You touch on the major problem within the industry.
It's disjointed, and few in positions of power care about the big picture.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by metro

Who bets that kind of money at the very last second when you obviously like a horse????

The really smart money that is kicking our asses on a daily basis.

There are people out there who have figured out the game as it presently stands. They do things you can't do. Because you don't have their resources (resources include things like capital and brain power).

They are taking advantage of every possible edge (including rebates). That includes betting at the last possible second (it's not that hard to do, especially when you have a number of people working for you). THEY are balancing out the pools...THEY are making the pools more efficient. THEY are betting multiple horses in the race in whatever pool offers an EDGE to them.

THEY are pounding obviously under-bet horses at post time.

YES...they have this ability...they have the smarts...they have the technology to get it done...efficiently...day after day....just like a CASINO.

They have FIGURED IT OUT.

And they will continue to do this until the game changes...or the powers that be make it harder for them to do this on this kind of scale.

Period.

End of story.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

Sharp post

You touch on the major problem within the industry.
It's disjointed, and few in positions of power care about the big picture.

Except you don't need to past post to make gobs of money at this game.

[metro]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

The really smart money that is kicking our asses on a daily basis.

There are people out there who have figured out the game as it presently stands. They do things you can't do. Because you don't have their resources (resources include things like capital and brain power).

They are taking advantage of every possible edge (including rebates). That includes betting at the last possible second (it's not that hard to do, especially when you have a number of people working for you). THEY are balancing out the pools...THEY are making the pools more efficient. THEY are betting multiple horses in the race in whatever pool offers an EDGE to them.

THEY are pounding obviously under-bet horses at post time.

YES...they have this ability...they have the smarts...they have the technology to get it done...efficiently...day after day....just like a CASINO.

They have FIGURED IT OUT.

And they will continue to do this until the game changes...or the powers that be make it harder for them to do this on this kind of scale.

Period.

End of story.

I do not disagree with anything you posted. I know that tracks cater to the big bettors and syndicates, and give them everything at their disposal to succeed as long as they are putting the amount of money that they do into the pools.

My question is how they are doing it? Well, I kind of know how they are but it would be nice if statements like the one Keeneland released had more context. Have them show us the origin of these wagers, where and how all the late money in this instance came in within the last 10 seconds of wagering and was still accepted. They say all wagers are time stamped, well let's see them. Let's see the exact time, and from what source, the late win money on the 3 horse hit the pool.

Most all that post here know that most tracks allow and accept batch wagering from the syndicates. My guess though is that syndicates do not have to hit or click a "send" button for their wagers to be accepted. Rather for every race the syndicates wager on they have a batch, or betting queue, that is automatically sent from to the track as soon as someone in the corresponding track mutuel department flips a switch to stop accept wagering. It allows them to add wagers to, or remove wagers from, the betting queue based on what is happening during the loading process.

The queue contains every wager that the syndicate places on a particular race. Every pool they are wagering in. Every wps wager.....every horizontal wager....every vertical wager......they get every single bet in at the very last second. They never get shut out.

[classhandicapper]

When I worked at DRF, I was in a meeting with some MIT guys that had a technology that was looking at racing and betting pool data and automatically creating and submitting bets at a national level with no human handicapping and almost no human intervention at all. It was also self learning. As it accumulated more data it learned and adjusted its own algorithms. The team said they had an edge at both small and large tracks. The amounts they were putting through the windows sounded staggering. This wasn't even a team of handicappers using their insights and technology to create better odds lines and then submitting bets. This is was a team that flipped the on switch in the morning and then went to the beach. How do you compete with that?

[SaratogaSteve]

what are the reasons the tote system could/would not shift to a system where you get the odds at time of betting, not the final posted odds?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by metro

I do not disagree with anything you posted. I know that tracks cater to the big bettors and syndicates, and give them everything at their disposal to succeed as long as they are putting the amount of money that they do into the pools.

My question is how they are doing it? Well, I kind of know how they are but it would be nice if statements like the one Keeneland released had more context. Have them show us the origin of these wagers, where and how all the late money in this instance came in within the last 10 seconds of wagering and was still accepted. They say all wagers are time stamped, well let's see them. Let's see the exact time, and from what source, the late win money on the 3 horse hit the pool.

Most all that post here know that most tracks allow and accept batch wagering from the syndicates. My guess though is that syndicates do not have to hit or click a "send" button for their wagers to be accepted. Rather for every race the syndicates wager on they have a batch, or betting queue, that is automatically sent from to the track as soon as someone in the corresponding track mutuel department flips a switch to stop accept wagering. It allows them to add wagers to, or remove wagers from, the betting queue based on what is happening during the loading process.

The queue contains every wager that the syndicate places on a particular race. Every pool they are wagering in. Every wps wager.....every horizontal wager....every vertical wager......they get every single bet in at the very last second. They never get shut out.

I very much doubt they have someone in the mutuels department submitting their wagers for them prior to hitting the close switch when the race starts.

They don't even need that. Also, it wouldn't be anywhere near as efficient enough for them.

These wagers are calculated at the very last possible moment...how they gonna get that info to their "mutuels mole" in time?

No...what happens is this, most likely (or some variant thereof):

These really smart people have either people working for them who watch the racing feeds or maybe they even have computers monitoring the feeds somehow...who knows at this point how advanced they've gotten...

They know exactly at what point they have enough time left to compute which horses to bet, which pools to bet, and how much to bet, create the batch file or whatever and submit the bets into whatever ADW they are using (probably their own private ADW...again I don't know for sure the exact mechanisms they are using, but it doesn't really matter).

The point is, they have everything figured out. The most basic of all of this is when to push the button to figure out the bets and have them submitted at the last second.

It's not too hard to figure out that you have X seconds remaining after X many of horses are loaded into the gate.

Do they ever get shut out? I'm guessing they probably do...nothing is perfect.

But this is as close as you're gonna get.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

When I worked at DRF, I was in a meeting with some MIT guys that had a technology that was looking at racing and betting pool data and automatically creating and submitting bets at a national level with no human handicapping and almost no human intervention at all. It was also self learning. As it accumulated more data it learned and adjusted its own algorithms. The team said they had an edge at both small and large tracks. The amounts they were putting through the windows sounded staggering. This wasn't even a team of handicappers using their insights and technology to create better odds lines and then submitting bets. This is was a team that flipped the on switch in the morning and then went to the beach. How do you compete with that?

the only place you can win today is where the computers don't do any good.

i am beating the game since the corona for the first time in many years without consuls, beyer numbers or racing forms. when things get back to normal and the tracks get filled up again, i will probably go back to losing.

[Sea Hero]

Interesting points are made. But there HAVE been documented instances of past-posting: the whole blowup at Sam Houston and Fair Grounds that led TS to close betting 1 minute to post for a while, the guy who got caught doing it in North Dakota, the people who manipulated the simulcast machines (at Belmont if I remember), the BC P6 scandal (which may have been related to the Belmont problems), the ones from South Africa who forged time stamps, etc. I seriously doubt that the tote hubs have a perfect system that is hack-proof. Somebody who can find a way in and who isn't greedy could make a lot of money with just one encroachment per week into a large betting pool. I'm not convinced that past posting doesn't exist.

I am very convinced that the computer dudes and synidcate boys have ruined the game with their balancing of every pool that displays, at every track probably on the planet, every day. That's bad enough, but at least it's legal. Past posting isn't, and I would hope that the tote hubs and related parties are doing what they can to track it down and put an end to it.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Sea Hero

Interesting points are made. But there HAVE been documented instances of past-posting: the whole blowup at Sam Houston and Fair Grounds that led TS to close betting 1 minute to post for a while, the guy who got caught doing it in North Dakota, the people who manipulated the simulcast machines (at Belmont if I remember), the BC P6 scandal (which may have been related to the Belmont problems), the ones from South Africa who forged time stamps, etc. I seriously doubt that the tote hubs have a perfect system that is hack-proof. Somebody who can find a way in and who isn't greedy could make a lot of money with just one encroachment per week into a large betting pool. I'm not convinced that past posting doesn't exist.

I am very convinced that the computer dudes and synidcate boys have ruined the game with their balancing of every pool that displays, at every track probably on the planet, every day. That's bad enough, but at least it's legal. Past posting isn't, and I would hope that the tote hubs and related parties are doing what they can to track it down and put an end to it.

everyone always thinks that the guy from North Dakota past posted the Derby with MANARCHOS. he didn't, he got them in the Florida Derby.

the reason why somebody thinks there is some past posting going on now is because some of the tracks that can't have people are bringing their signals over to restaurants where people can bet on the horses without going to the track. if there is any time left after the load, someone could pump into the pool or take out of the pool.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Sea Hero

Interesting points are made. But there HAVE been documented instances of past-posting: the whole blowup at Sam Houston and Fair Grounds that led TS to close betting 1 minute to post for a while, the guy who got caught doing it in North Dakota, the people who manipulated the simulcast machines (at Belmont if I remember), the BC P6 scandal (which may have been related to the Belmont problems), the ones from South Africa who forged time stamps, etc. I seriously doubt that the tote hubs have a perfect system that is hack-proof. Somebody who can find a way in and who isn't greedy could make a lot of money with just one encroachment per week into a large betting pool. I'm not convinced that past posting doesn't exist.

I am very convinced that the computer dudes and synidcate boys have ruined the game with their balancing of every pool that displays, at every track probably on the planet, every day. That's bad enough, but at least it's legal. Past posting isn't, and I would hope that the tote hubs and related parties are doing what they can to track it down and put an end to it.

Apparently you don't follow the racing in Hong Kong! Syndicates there are the norm and they certainly haven't hurt the HK product one bit. Their betting makes the Stateside syndicate betting pale by comparison in terms of volume.
The HK Jockey Club provides complete transparency in all aspects of the game they offer as their TOP priority. You won't find the nonsense you're referring to even on a limited scale.

And why not? The proof is in the pudding!
After all, the total combined HK handle for only 765 races (from only 2 tracks operating once a week) during a single race meet is greater than ALL the combined betting that takes place at EVERY track in North & South America for an ENTIRE YEAR!

[depalma113]

Just lock the betting 2 minutes to post and all of this goes away.