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08-16-2018, 01:11 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Oregon USA
Posts: 52
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First-time geldings
Does anyone have some data to share on first-time geldings? A week ago at Del Mar (8/8 R8) there were two in the field in a $20K maiden claimer: Pacific Song (19-1) and Sterling's Temple (17-1). I used the latter in my exotics, but the former was coming off of a huge layoff and didn't seem to be a contender, other than being gelded since his last start.
Pacific Song finished over Sterling's Temple.
Is the first-time gelding angle profitable and can be backed up by stats, or is it a losing angle?
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08-16-2018, 01:18 AM
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#2
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by martini
Does anyone have some data to share on first-time geldings? A week ago at Del Mar (8/8 R8) there were two in the field in a $20K maiden claimer: Pacific Song (19-1) and Sterling's Temple (17-1). I used the latter in my exotics, but the former was coming off of a huge layoff and didn't seem to be a contender, other than being gelded since his last start.
Pacific Song finished over Sterling's Temple.
Is the first-time gelding angle profitable and can be backed up by stats, or is it a losing angle?
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The biggest problem with trying to do stats on first time geldings is that it is often reported incorrectly. You can usually figure it out but it takes some work to get it correct in a database. In any case, it won't be profitable. That is a promise.
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08-16-2018, 01:20 AM
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#3
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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Just betting them all will lose money. CJ is right.
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08-16-2018, 01:37 AM
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#4
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
The biggest problem with trying to do stats on first time geldings is that it is often reported incorrectly. You can usually figure it out but it takes some work to get it correct in a database. In any case, it won't be profitable. That is a promise.
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Well..
1) They are always overbet as to what they should be.
and now...
2) The 2nd time out after Gelding is getting overbet.
When does the 3rd time after gelded angle come out as being somewhat "popular"?
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08-16-2018, 09:28 PM
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#5
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$2 Showbettor
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,578
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Don't bet on first time geldings coming off a week layoff.
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08-18-2018, 12:14 AM
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#6
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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I knew someone years ago that called them Jell Dings
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08-18-2018, 08:08 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 1
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I would agree on unprofitable over long run. But this spring I was at Oaklawn with my wife and they were going over the changes for the day and announced in Race 1 this horse as a gelding - wasn't in the program. My wife asked me what it meant and why he we cared. I told her I didn't. She put $2 to win on the horse that went off over 50-1 and he won by about 4 lengths. I was wishing I or she had put a little more than the $2 on that hunch.
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08-24-2018, 09:51 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 1,239
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
The biggest problem with trying to do stats on first time geldings is that it is often reported incorrectly. You can usually figure it out but it takes some work to get it correct in a database. In any case, it won't be profitable. That is a promise.
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CJ is right. Using Stats Race Lens, it took me less than five minutes to run baseline stats on horses races after first time reported as a gelding:
First Start after reported as a gelding, last 365 Days:
9420 starters, 6387 races, 11% win, 11% place, 12% show -39% ROI
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08-27-2018, 11:38 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 5,414
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There are so many variables involved I can’t see how one could use it as a handicapping tool. Things as recovery rates, length of time after the actual procedure, length of time any given horse needs to actually benefit from the procedure. That alone varies immensely.
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08-28-2018, 09:32 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ubercapper
First Start after reported as a gelding, last 365 Days:
9420 starters, 6387 races, 11% win, 11% place, 12% show -39% ROI
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This is why having data is so helpful.
Horse players believe all sorts of things based on what they read in a best selling book, because they cashed a few winners on some angle one time and it made a strong impression, someone whose opinion they respect told them etc... Some of it is utter hogwash, but they'll argue it, promote it as a valuable angle, continue betting it etc...
I try not to add anything to my game unless I've tested it thoroughly and know it either adds value to my betting or to my ability to create a better odds line. I never look at gelding info because I've never had the ability to test it. Seems that was a good idea. The again, maybe not. Perhaps I should have been tossing them.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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08-29-2018, 07:42 PM
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#11
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 980
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A former trainer told me to always check the date when the horse was gelded and give them couple of months to recuperate.
He said never to bet on recently gelded horses, he told me some of the ones he had gelded looked like they wanted to die so he would always send them to a farm to perk up and get better after the procedure.
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08-29-2018, 08:35 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 5,414
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Quote:
Originally Posted by linrom1
A former trainer told me to always check the date when the horse was gelded and give them couple of months to recuperate.
He said never to bet on recently gelded horses, he told me some of the ones he had gelded looked like they wanted to die so he would always send them to a farm to perk up and get better after the procedure.
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I agree with that trainer to a degree. To me there is no consistency with gelding a horse. But after the procedure the best thing to do is cold water therapy and take them to the track to jog the very next day. Otherwise they can swell up like a damn softball. The sooner you exercise em the better.
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