Change Rate vs Distance (help)

[Foolshope]

Does anyone know a good change rate for expected times as distance changes(in furlongs)?

Like for example if North American horses run 5 furlongs in an average of 1 minute, when comparing horses that run longer races(up to 10F) or shorter races(~5F) whats a good % change and/or # you guys would use adjusted to that time?

I know the shorter the race the faster the time per furlong, and the opposite for longer distances...so I'm just trying to put times on even playing fields.

I'm sure if I play around with the numbers I can figure something out, but I know there are some geniuses on this forum.

Thanks!

[Dave Schwartz]

I'm not sure how much you will get from this but perhaps worth a read for you.

Dave Schwartz's Understanding Par Times

Pay special attention to the section titled:
How to Make Good Pars - Part 1, #11.
Note the final time differential between each distance.

Hope this helps.

Dave

[Foolshope]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I'm not sure how much you will get from this but perhaps worth a read for you.

Dave Schwartz's Understanding Par Times

Pay special attention to the section titled:
How to Make Good Pars - Part 1, #11.
Note the final time differential between each distance.

Hope this helps.

Dave

I think this does help, what I was asking may not have any relevancy and this gives me some guidance as to why but also how to manipulate the time a bit better.

Thank you!

[steveb]

Originally Posted by Foolshope

Does anyone know a good change rate for expected times as distance changes(in furlongs)?

Like for example if North American horses run 5 furlongs in an average of 1 minute, when comparing horses that run longer races(up to 10F) or shorter races(~5F) whats a good % change and/or # you guys would use adjusted to that time?

I know the shorter the race the faster the time per furlong, and the opposite for longer distances...so I'm just trying to put times on even playing fields.

I'm sure if I play around with the numbers I can figure something out, but I know there are some geniuses on this forum.

Thanks!

there are simple formulae you could use, but take my advice and don't bother, because it won't be accurate enough to win.
and below is why.


That is Shatin in HK and they will be better than you will get elsewhere, but it matters not where or how(many tracks together or just one single) you do it, the answers will be no good.

There is almost perfect correlation between time and distance.(.999857) in my standard times(pars) , and yet when you compare the fitted to the actual times they vary by as much as about 19 metres(or in beyer terms 19 speed points).
It's a recipe to send you to the poor house.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Foolshope

I think this does help, what I was asking may not have any relevancy and this gives me some guidance as to why but also how to manipulate the time a bit better.

Thank you!

You are welcome.

Since you're working so hard at this, if you'd care to write me an email, I could set aside time for a 30-minute call to discuss.


Dave