Explain the A-B-C-X method for horizontal wagers?

[Buckeye]

I don't understand how anyone could think it doesn't matter who the A's, B's and C's are.

If I get that right and I mean correct, it becomes a math problem.

[stringmail]

Originally Posted by Tom

Very good analysis of how to construct a DD ticket package for the two races.
A C horse won the first, and his comments was to play that one only with As in the next race.

An A won, but not the heavy favored A, so a nice double hit, and now I am putting the hot dogs back in the freezer and heading out fro steak and ale tonight.

Seriously, very good logic in the two races. I have got to re-visit DD - which used to be one of my favorite, bets but has kind of faded away in favor of exactas.

I guess this is going to be an ongoing thing for ATR from what I heard Friday.
Good idea, IMHO. I know I am never too old to learn something new.

The two races were Aqu 7 and 8.

Can you clarify this? Perhaps I read the content on Byk's site incorrectly but it looked like there were 95 units structured and the double was not listed. There was no C/A, only C/AA so may be I misinterpreted the details

[Yukon Cornelius]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

1)
2)
3)
4)

Here is a typical "caveman" pick-4 ticket...as it would usually be posted by a TVG host. For 50-cents...it would cost $32. Could a cheaper ABC ticket be constructed...while using all the above horses?

So I’m not sure if anyone said this already since my eyes started to glaze by page 6 or 7, but here’s a way i have always played Pick 3’s and depending on the number of horses you like in each leg, it would work with Pick 4’s as well. Now, it does cost more and I know that’s what the arguement was over but that’s not my point. Just sharing to share. In the scenario you listed above, let’s assume the 1 horse in each leg is the favorite and the 2 horse in each leg is the longest odds overlay. I would structure .50cent Pick 4 tickets as follows:

Ticket 1: 2/1,2,3,4/1,2/1,2,3,4 = $16
Ticket 2: 1,2/2/1,2/1,2,3,4 = $8
Ticket 3: 1,2/1,2,3,4/2/1,2,3,4 = $16
Ticket 4: 1,2/1,2,3,4/1,2/2 = $8

Total $48

I like this method best because, while it costs more, you also have an opportunity to hit multiple tickets (if more than one single comes in). You also give yourself a chance to be involved in pools where less people cash. Just remember never to single the favorite in any race.

Thoughts?

[Buckeye]

Why not single the favorite if it makes sense?

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Buckeye

Why not single the favorite if it makes sense?

Of course you would, Buckeye. The person making that blanket statement must have thought he was still on twitter.

I was just reading Frankel's ANOTOMY OF A PICK 4:


Race 6 - $10.40 (4/1 - 3rd choice)
Race 7 - $18.60 (8/1 - 4th choice)
Race 8 - $2.50 (1/4 - favorite)
Race 9 - $15.50 (7/1 - 4th choice)

$1 Pick Four: Paid $1,410


If you came to the same conclusion as the betting public and believed that 1-Rereadthefootnotes was the overwhelming choice to win Race 8, you essentially turned this Pick 4 into a Pick 3. Rereadthefootnotes was hammered at the windows and went to post with the paltry odds of 1/4 and responded to the backing by easily dominating the field by six lengths.

The rest of the sequence certainly wasn't easy, but look at the odds on the winners of the other three races: 4/1, 8/1, and 7/1. There's nothing significantly crazy occurring; we aren't seeing a 20/1 horse pop up in the results, nor are we seeing the longest shot on the board coming home, yet the Pick 4 still returned a solid amount. If you've turned a Pick 4 into a Pick 3, you could have gone something like 5x5x4 in the other three races and come up with a $100 ticket that still paid 13/1. And that's if you throwing darts at the board. Had you been able to pare down one of those races to two or three selections and still land on the winner there would be a lot of room left to cover the others.

Admittedly, this ticket could blow up in your face just as easily as any other--
the point is - on a Pick-4, singling an odds-on isn't necessarily a bad thing.

https://www.anddownthestretchtheycom...-pick-4-payout

[Buckeye]

Things can get very exciting in the pick 4 and above even if an odds-on favorite wins one or more races depending on what else happens.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Okay, I guess there is only one way to play a race according to you?

I would rather not single favorites because it gives me a chance to hit larger tickets. In your scenario, if the favorite in race 8 loses, most people lose. Guess who’s going to have an oppotunity to hit though?...everyone who did not single the favorite. Also, in your scenario, I still have a chance to hit that on one of my tickets as well. It’s not that I am leaving the favorite out (unless it’s a false favorite).

I will admit I play this way more with Pick 3’s but it could cerainly be suitable with P4 as well in certain scenarios.

Thanks for dismissiveness however...and twitter?

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Yukon Cornelius

Okay, I guess there is only one way to play a race according to you?

I would rather not single favorites because it gives me a chance to hit larger tickets. In your scenario, if the favorite in race 8 loses, most people lose. Guess who’s going to have an oppotunity to hit though?...everyone who did not single the favorite. Also, in your scenario, I still have a chance to hit that on one of my tickets as well. It’s not that I am leaving the favorite out (unless it’s a false favorite).

I will admit I play this way more with Pick 3’s but it could cerainly be suitable with P4 as well in certain scenarios.

Thanks for dismissiveness however...and twitter?

Sorry for being slightly, sorta...a tiny bit rude there, YC.

Welcome to the board

-NCG

[Yukon Cornelius]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Sorry for being slightly, sorta...a tiny bit rude there, YC.

Welcome to the board

-NCG

No worries. Here to share ideas and continue learning. Appreciate the slightly, sorta...tiny backpedal 😉

[Buckeye]

Let's see, higher PK4s result from what?

I'm not telling anyone what to do other than telling them not to do what THEY do.

[Buckeye]

Basically, I think it comes down to an "art" thing to choose and make your choice and take your chance.

Otherwise you're just a caveman and you'll get gobbled up by the takeout.