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Old 11-28-2022, 07:13 PM   #16
the little guy
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I believe it is all the straight pools, WPS.
Just Win I believe. I thought it was all WPS but apparently not.
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Old 11-28-2022, 07:16 PM   #17
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Ocrunk on twitter was saying the numbers do not support that CAW teams are not still betting into win pools.

I have no idea, just got my attention.
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Old 11-28-2022, 07:27 PM   #18
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Ocrunk on twitter was saying the numbers do not support that CAW teams are not still betting into win pools.

I have no idea, just got my attention.
He's wrong and was refuted by someone that actually knows.
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Old 11-28-2022, 08:52 PM   #19
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This is a question.

Just to clarify, they are still allowed to participate in the WIN pool, just with a cutoff time? Correct?

If that's the case, I'm not sure why they would totally stop WIN betting, assuming they did. Whether they bet with 2 minutes left or 10 seconds left they are the ones moving the prices. They are competing against other. It's not likely the public is going to move the odds much after they make their bets at 2 minutes. There's doesn't seem to be so much incremental risk to them that they have to avoid the pool totally.

This change mostly helped guys like us. If they do bet, any large drops would hopefully occur with enough time left to adjust our own thinking a bit. But our adjustments are not going to cause a huge shift in odds.
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Old 11-29-2022, 12:49 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
This is a question.

Just to clarify, they are still allowed to participate in the WIN pool, just with a cutoff time? Correct?

If that's the case, I'm not sure why they would totally stop WIN betting, assuming they did. Whether they bet with 2 minutes left or 10 seconds left they are the ones moving the prices. They are competing against other. It's not likely the public is going to move the odds much after they make their bets at 2 minutes. There's doesn't seem to be so much incremental risk to them that they have to avoid the pool totally.

This change mostly helped guys like us. If they do bet, any large drops would hopefully occur with enough time left to adjust our own thinking a bit. But our adjustments are not going to cause a huge shift in odds.
They are not cut off. I think this clearly shows that the edge they have is not just rebates and informational. It is the fact they can bet LAST, which since they know the bet sizes means they are basically betting fixed odds. I'd even argue this is their biggest edge, and the fact they choose not to play tells me I'm likely correct.
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Old 11-29-2022, 01:06 AM   #21
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But betting at 3 minutes to post is going to depress the prices on the picks in the other pools, perhaps more than they stand to win playing the win pool under those rules.
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Old 11-29-2022, 12:17 PM   #22
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He's wrong and was refuted by someone that actually knows.
How would you know I was wrong? You admittedly said you couldn't see the data I shared.

Further, you stated that "those groups left those pools completely". The NYRA financial analyst gentlemen, who follows me and is reasonable when interacting with me in the past, responded and said that CRW participation in those pools is now "immaterial". I have no reason to doubt him as the data I shared would back up that they are not completely gone just participating at a lower share of the pools than before.

Perhaps you NYRA guys can huddle up and get your story straight. Immaterial is a different thing than completely gone.

Regards,
Your wearisome, petulant child.
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Old 11-29-2022, 02:12 PM   #23
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They are not cut off. I think this clearly shows that the edge they have is not just rebates and informational. It is the fact they can bet LAST, which since they know the bet sizes means they are basically betting fixed odds. I'd even argue this is their biggest edge, and the fact they choose not to play tells me I'm likely correct.
What I'm suggesting (and could easily be misunderstanding) is that since they were the ones creating all the late odds changes to begin with, there's not necessarily a huge difference to them if they bet at 2 minutes to post or in the last seconds. If they throw a ton of money in at 2 minutes, there probably won't be any large odd changes they have to worry about after they are done. Maybe at the margin they would lose a tick here or there, but nothing huge enough to totally abandon the pool. Maybe they'd have to make a small adjustment. Granted, I'm talking intuitively and never actually tested anything, but if I was in there position I think I'd still be betting WIN at 2 minutes, just with some tighter rules.
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Old 11-29-2022, 02:35 PM   #24
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They are not cut off. I think this clearly shows that the edge they have is not just rebates and informational. It is the fact they can bet LAST, which since they know the bet sizes means they are basically betting fixed odds. I'd even argue this is their biggest edge, and the fact they choose not to play tells me I'm likely correct.
The assumption must be made that, since there is more than one computer group operating out there, it would be pretty easy for these groups to end up betting on the same horses at the same time...and consequently drive the payoffs way lower than what they project they should be. And, since they can't cancel any of their wagers, they would be stuck with bets that are distinct underlays. How do they cope with such a situation...which seems to me to be a common occurrence?
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Old 11-29-2022, 04:14 PM   #25
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The assumption must be made that, since there is more than one computer group operating out there, it would be pretty easy for these groups to end up betting on the same horses at the same time...and consequently drive the payoffs way lower than what they project they should be. And, since they can't cancel any of their wagers, they would be stuck with bets that are distinct underlays. How do they cope with such a situation...which seems to me to be a common occurrence?
Their algorithms take that into account.
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Old 11-29-2022, 06:07 PM   #26
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Their algorithms take that into account.
Powerful stuff for the solitary horseplayer to compete against...
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Old 11-29-2022, 06:11 PM   #27
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Powerful stuff for the solitary horseplayer to compete against...
I guess.

I would think their handicapping model is the more sophisticated element. Figuring out the likely eventual pool size and how people with similar algorithms will react probably isn't really that tricky. Their rebate gives them a reasonable margin of error, right? Essentially, they are trying to lose around 5% ( I'm kind of assuming but it feels reasonable ).
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Old 11-29-2022, 06:25 PM   #28
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I guess.

I would think their handicapping model is the more sophisticated element. Figuring out the likely eventual pool size and how people with similar algorithms will react probably isn't really that tricky. Their rebate gives them a reasonable margin of error, right? Essentially, they are trying to lose around 5% ( I'm kind of assuming but it feels reasonable ).
Yes...I too would think that their handicapping model is the more sophisticated element. And I am hoping that their handicapping model is sophisticated enough to keep improving and subsequently counteract against the pool-sizing algorithms that these computer groups use to "handicap" one-another.

I dream of the day when these "whales" will start feasting upon one-another.
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Old 11-29-2022, 06:36 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
What I'm suggesting (and could easily be misunderstanding) is that since they were the ones creating all the late odds changes to begin with, there's not necessarily a huge difference to them if they bet at 2 minutes to post or in the last seconds. If they throw a ton of money in at 2 minutes, there probably won't be any large odd changes they have to worry about after they are done. Maybe at the margin they would lose a tick here or there, but nothing huge enough to totally abandon the pool. Maybe they'd have to make a small adjustment. Granted, I'm talking intuitively and never actually tested anything, but if I was in there position I think I'd still be betting WIN at 2 minutes, just with some tighter rules.
The problem for them is other bettors would absolutely follow the money, and not just in the win pools. Without the cutoff, nobody can follow them.

Last edited by cj; 11-29-2022 at 06:37 PM.
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Old 11-29-2022, 07:50 PM   #30
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Remember there was a post here a few years back (3 to 5?) where someone in the know was saying they put invest a million dollars (or something like that) before making their 1st bet. When you invest the kind of money they do and you make the kind of money they do, are you going to leave any stone unturned? I find it hard to believe that some of these teams do not have real experts at evaluating every aspect of this game (horse physicality, workouts, inside information, trainer patterns, biases, trip/trouble, race flow..............) you plug it into their very sophisticated modeling techniques and there very healthy rebates and there is only one logical conclusion.

The typical bettor has no chance. So as I stated in a similar thread a month or two ago, if there is a pool they are not heavily invested in 2022 (the NYRA win pool), that should be the focus of any horseplayer that is not beating this game and wants a fighting chance. In fact seeing how much damage these teams are doing in all of the pools (info from a prior thread), probably not a bad idea to focus on the win pools(or wps whatever works for you) wherever you play until you become a winning player. If you are a winning player carry on with whatever works for you. But relative to sports betting and Poker, the current version of horse racing is one tough buck for the layman or even someone like myself who has bet horses since I was young kid. So if you are not beating this game and you enjoy the game try to seek the best opportunities, otherwise you are going to spend a lot of time losing and learning...........which ultimately means you are just learning how to lose or lose less.

Last edited by Poindexter; 11-29-2022 at 07:51 PM.
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