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View Poll Results: Do you use energy percentages?
Yes, it is very important 2,072 94.70%
Yes, it is somewhat important 21 0.96%
Yes, but I really just look at it. 18 0.82%
No, it never worked for me. 38 1.74%
I do not select pacelines. 39 1.78%
Voters: 2188. This poll is closed

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Old 10-23-2022, 09:47 PM   #121
Dave Schwartz
 
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In what sense? I rely heavily on %Median. Maybe not in the same way as others see it.

Like you, BJ, I have never gotten it to work for me.

But his stuff is different.
Completely different application.

I've seen some of Ranch's work.
His concepts are very solid.
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Old 10-24-2022, 05:09 PM   #122
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Would you like to take a race and explain?
Race 1 Parx, 10/24/22 (today)

A field of early energy horses (fairly high %M) going 5.5f, a dash. Should be a normal pace race. All of the horses have a similar early energy.

#4 shows to be the early pace horse, gets the lead. #1 shows to have early foot and class, breaks a little off, moves up and runs down the 4.

Nothing special about this race, but that's what the %M told me... nothing special to be concerned about, handicap it normally.
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Old 10-24-2022, 05:47 PM   #123
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It's when there's a field of low %M horses that I get more creative in my handicapping.
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Old 10-24-2022, 06:52 PM   #124
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Originally Posted by ranchwest View Post
Race 1 Parx, 10/24/22 (today)

A field of early energy horses (fairly high %M) going 5.5f, a dash. Should be a normal pace race. All of the horses have a similar early energy.

#4 shows to be the early pace horse, gets the lead. #1 shows to have early foot and class, breaks a little off, moves up and runs down the 4.

Nothing special about this race, but that's what the %M told me... nothing special to be concerned about, handicap it normally.
thxs


Your first sentence says "fairly high %M at 5.5"

How do you know that?
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Old 10-24-2022, 07:17 PM   #125
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thxs


Your first sentence says "fairly high %M at 5.5"

How do you know that?
That may not have been as clear as it should have been. I didn't mean their history at 5.5. I meant that they were going 5.5 today.
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Old 10-24-2022, 07:21 PM   #126
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That may not have been as clear as it should have been. I didn't mean their history at 5.5. I meant that they were going 5.5 today.
it sounds like your going off the top of your head with no real rules...

correct?
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Old 10-24-2022, 07:53 PM   #127
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it sounds like your going off the top of your head with no real rules...

correct?
Incorrect. I take the %M of all prior races and take the median of those. I divide those into 6 levels of early to late. I then take the median value for those 6 levels. If it leans late (on dirt) for the field, I get creative.
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Old 10-24-2022, 07:55 PM   #128
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Incorrect. I take the %M of all prior races and take the median of those. I divide those into 6 levels of early to late. I then take the median value for those 6 levels. If it leans late (on dirt) for the field, I get creative.
thx....got it
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Old 10-25-2022, 03:34 PM   #129
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I think you're talking about handicapping today's race and I'm talking about assessing the impact of energy distribution in a previous race. In theory if I'm carrying forward more accurate data from previously rated races as inputs to today's handicapping process then I'm setting myself up for success against those who aren't.
That's what I'm interested in also. I'm trying to measure the past more accurately.

The complexity for me is that each horse is different in terms of how it reacts to various pace and flow conditions even when the running styles are the same. IMO, all the formulas and handicapping dictums are wrong some of the time other than if we are talking about the "average" horse.

So the trick to getting value is not being on the same page as everyone else. It's understanding where all the commonly held views are wrong for some individual horse.
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