Pace Handicappers: Do You Use Energy Distribution?

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by headhawg

Not according to the poll -- Question for those of you who do paceline selection. Do you use energy percentages?

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Nothing to do with paceline selection, other than you have to select a paceline to know what the energy% are.

This turning into the ..."chicken or the egg"...

need one for the other

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Nothing to do with paceline selection, other than you have to select a paceline to know what the energy% are.

I don't just figure the energy for the pace line. I also calculate %M for all races for both the horse and the field. That's why I found the original question so confusing.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

I don't just figure the energy for the pace line. I also calculate %M for all races for both the horse and the field. That's why I found the original question so confusing.

This thread doesn't make sense for someone that doesn't use pacelines

You need a pace line to determine %EE

i know this will probably go in the trash!!

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Sorry if I confused people.

I was saying that the poll was for people who select pacelines.

If you don't select pacelines, how would you even have energy pcts to model?

The poll question wasn't that confusing, but apparently people have their own agendas.

[woodbinepmi]

I tried to explain it to former jockey and trainer Larry Spraker once, he lost his mind.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by headhawg

The poll question wasn't that confusing, but apparently people have their own agendas.

It was very confusing because energy distribution can be computed on any race. Thus, the original question could be construed to be asking about energy distribution as related to pace line selection.

The real question has nothing to do with pace line selection. The real question is...

If you use pace handicapping ala Sartin, Brohammer, et. al., do you use energy distribution and, if so, how?

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by andicap

Dave,
I use energy to detect races that had more of a front-end skew than others by examining the 1st and 2nd calls. I promote horses who pressed the pace in races where the %E is above average in either call, especially those that remained competitive to the end. I demote closers who fail to exploit these set-ups.

I've found a number of high early energy races where the pace figures didn't point to an abnormal front end pressure but where the leaders came back strong when the pace figured to be less energy intensive.

I suspect this is an extremely good response, but it is really a bit deep to just completely grasp immediately as far as actual implementation. But I am going to go over it and give it some thought. Thanks!

[Fingal]

Originally Posted by headhawg

The poll question wasn't that confusing, but apparently people have their own agendas.

Too many try to out think the room.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Fingal

Too many try to out think the room.

Not knowing the requirements leads to garbage.

[headhawg]

I'm not speaking for Dave, but the requirements seemed simple. I will try rewording the poll question.

"When handicapping a race do you select your own paceline(s)? If yes, select one of the choices from the given poll responses."

One could argue that the last response is not needed based on the first requirement, but nowhere does Dave ask how people use %EE. I'm sure he is smart enough to start a thread that asks that question if he wanted to know how. And maybe he will.

What Fingal wrote.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by headhawg

The poll question wasn't that confusing, but apparently people have their own agendas.

You mean the guy who can't spell George, right?

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by headhawg

I'm not speaking for Dave, but the requirements seemed simple. I will try rewording the poll question.

"When handicapping a race do you select your own paceline(s)? If yes, select one of the choices from the given poll responses."

One could argue that the last response is not needed based on the first requirement, but nowhere does Dave ask how people use %EE. I'm sure he is smart enough to start a thread that asks that question if he wanted to know how. And maybe he will.

What Fingal wrote.

That would logically be next because - until a few minutes ago - I thought modeling it was the only way.

Ranchwest presented an idea (not in this thread) that is really quite good.

Perhaps he'll expand on it here.

[Tom]

I like Ranch's approach, and just happened to be looking for it on your forum.

George, GR1 used to do this in HTR for turf races.
He slected multiple pace lines - might have been mode 4? - and then used the average ratings instead of a single line.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Tom

I like Ranch's approach, and just happened to be looking for it on your forum.

It's too much of a struggle on here. See the other forum for my explanation.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

I consider %Median to be very important, but I would have no idea of how to use that in pace line selection.

tells of FORM CYCLE or when a horse stretches out (particularly during the road to the Triple Crown you can tell which colts have it in them to stretch out to longer distances. THOSE who cannot, their % median rises as the distances increase)