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Old 11-28-2022, 09:20 PM   #31
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It also requires a LOT of experience and discernment and learning to know which scenarios to recognize.
And tracking to know what works and what doesn't.

Something that almost nobody is willing to do.
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Old 11-29-2022, 12:48 AM   #32
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And tracking to know what works and what doesn't.

Something that almost nobody is willing to do.
You are thinking in terms of what is predictive. But should we consider non-predictive possibilities and to what extent?

One day many years ago, I was sharing my vast knowledge of horse racing with a friend. The gates opened, the jockey on my horse flew over the horse's head and my friend cashed his ticket on another horse.
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Old 11-29-2022, 01:08 AM   #33
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You are thinking in terms of what is predictive. But should we consider non-predictive possibilities and to what extent?

One day many years ago, I was sharing my vast knowledge of horse racing with a friend. The gates opened, the jockey on my horse flew over the horse's head and my friend cashed his ticket on another horse.
If something cannot be predicted, how do you use it?
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Old 11-29-2022, 01:14 AM   #34
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If something cannot be predicted, how do you use it?
Through a bi-modal or multi-modal approach for risk reduction. A simple example is use of the ALL button. But there are other potentials.
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Old 11-29-2022, 09:30 AM   #35
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Through a bi-modal or multi-modal approach for risk reduction. A simple example is use of the ALL button. But there are other potentials.
Ah.

As part of a betting strategy.

Sure, I can see that.
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Old 11-29-2022, 11:09 AM   #36
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If something cannot be predicted, how do you use it?
You mean like how far back will a jockey on the lone speed at NYRA rate the horse???
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Old 12-15-2022, 10:48 AM   #37
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I was reading the book picking winners and Beyer said "We must watch races carefully, or at least study the charts a lot and make a list of horses that showed some sign of life but couldn't run their best race because of the bias."

So when you use the result charts, say you're going to handicap today's race. Do you get the result charts for every horse in the race or like the last few? Also, when not watching the replays, don't you miss some trips/troubles? I mean, nothing could replace what you see visually right? I hear a lot of people say, they prefer reading than watching so I guess I could see where you're coming from but everybody have their own way of doing trips.

Does anybody just use result charts alone to identify trips/troubles?
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Old 12-15-2022, 11:03 AM   #38
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I use the alternate charts from BRIS, the one that show the PP running line view. That gives a quick easy view of the running of the race. For NYRA races, I use Andy's rack Trends in conjunction.

If it is a track I have a speed chart for, I look for an abnormal fracion that might favor a certain horse or two.
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Old 12-15-2022, 11:38 AM   #39
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I was reading the book picking winners and Beyer said "We must watch races carefully, or at least study the charts a lot and make a list of horses that showed some sign of life but couldn't run their best race because of the bias."

So when you use the result charts, say you're going to handicap today's race. Do you get the result charts for every horse in the race or like the last few? Also, when not watching the replays, don't you miss some trips/troubles? I mean, nothing could replace what you see visually right? I hear a lot of people say, they prefer reading than watching so I guess I could see where you're coming from but everybody have their own way of doing trips.

Does anybody just use result charts alone to identify trips/troubles?
I wrote a program that looks for trouble comments, notes them and downgrades a troubled line from use as a pace line.

I think the fewer lines you can see for a horse, the less you can glean. If you have 10 lines, you can see the tendencies of a horse and you don't have to be so dependent on interpreting the troubled trip.
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Old 12-15-2022, 04:28 PM   #40
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Every single time that I have bet a horse because of a horrendous trip that the horse endured in its last race, the horse lost its subsequent start...often badly.
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Old 12-15-2022, 07:17 PM   #41
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Every single time that I have bet a horse because of a horrendous trip that the horse endured in its last race, the horse lost its subsequent start...often badly.
Yes, for instance, horses in the rear are more likely to get into trouble than front runners, so it is likely to happen repeatedly.
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Old 12-15-2022, 07:18 PM   #42
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In regards to using charts to do "trip work". I would suggest to take a couple of days charts, lay them out in front of you and watch the replay of said days. I assure you you are going to be very surprised. I would want a completely opposite opinion of my trips vs. those published. A mass majority of the time that is the case.
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Old 12-16-2022, 07:16 PM   #43
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I was reading the book picking winners and Beyer said "We must watch races carefully, or at least study the charts a lot and make a list of horses that showed some sign of life but couldn't run their best race because of the bias."

So when you use the result charts, say you're going to handicap today's race. Do you get the result charts for every horse in the race or like the last few? Also, when not watching the replays, don't you miss some trips/troubles? I mean, nothing could replace what you see visually right? I hear a lot of people say, they prefer reading than watching so I guess I could see where you're coming from but everybody have their own way of doing trips.

Does anybody just use result charts alone to identify trips/troubles?
Since you are someone new to the game, I believe you should do it the right way for about 6 months. Video tape the races at the track you play (or watch them on Youtube if you do not have the former option) and take notes on everything you see that looks detrimental. Watch these horses in their future races. Spend a lot of time on this. You have to learn what works for you. You may down the road find that this is a vital part of your game, or in 6 months you may determine it to be not worth the effort. But if you do not do the initial work, you will never know. Just the education you get from doing all this work will help your game long run. A lot of folks here have been playing this game for 30 or 40 years and have learned their niche. What they do and what you ultimately end up doing may be a whole lot different. I suggest taking this part of the process very seriously.
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Old 12-16-2022, 08:07 PM   #44
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You can get a subscription for just replays at RTN for all tracks for like $5 amonth, pan and head on views. Well worth it.
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Old 12-16-2022, 08:23 PM   #45
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I use Twinspires to bet at the track in Aqueduct but I'm from California.
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