ValueCapper

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Light

Mike

Nice pick on the 2 horse. Notice that the 2 also had the angle we were discussing with Coach in its 2 back race.

Yep....just adds to the "confidence" of the bet....

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by lefty359

Exciting race. 7 had a big lead, 2 came flying from the back and tagged the 7 on the wire at a square price of 5-1.
Good job.

Yep.....nice to see a horse win at the wire for a change...

[mikesal57]

RACE #2.....9

I also have a "system" for maidens too

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

RACE #2.....9

I also have a "system" for maidens too

Dont know what happened to the 9 but with my "regular" screen like for race 1...the 7 & 5 were the choices...5 won at 5-1
it happens...

You ask why the 7 & 5?....because of the pace of race doesnt look fast , so I choose the top 2 contenders near the lead..

[mikesal57]

last race for me here...thought Speed would chime in...

After seeing first race capping...

you should know which 2 I will be playing here...

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

last race for me here...thought Speed would chime in...

After seeing first race capping...

you should know which 2 I will be playing here...

Watching first 3 races...you can say speed will be good today..

[mikesal57]

Race 6...going with the 8 W/P

thats all folks...

[Speed Figure]

Just becoming available! good hits..

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

Just becoming available! good hits..

I though I was going to get hit with a few questions...

Guess not

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by SandyW

This is a similar program as FCR basically the same reports and information.


http://contenderswins.com/

Pretty good reports that I have messed around with in the past

I also like this website too and find both reports fun and possibly useful:
https://www.keypony.com/

[mhaney0423]

Heres one I came upon using Valuecapper yesterday, it was the 7th Race from Gulfstream a 1 mile race for $8,000 open claiming

JPEG1) Has the horses in order of the Valuecapper Odds (Odds). without getting too much in depth, note that the top three choices on the valucapper line had what MP calls anti-value which could be a layoff, - class drop, hard race last out, etc etc. This is what peaked my interest in the race. Next if you look to the Valuecapper odds (Odds) compared to the Actual Odds (tote) the #9 Dropkick stands out as a huge overlay (6-1 VC odds going off at 19-1 tote) the only other overlay in the race above the Arc(red line) is the #10 which I discounted mostly because of the negative class drop (claimed for 16k two back)

JPEG2) As part of my handicapping process, I go to another screen and sort the horses on their Michael Pizzolla pace figures. I have the screen set to take the best MP pace fig using his two excuse rule. It basically will go back in races until the horse does not have 2 excuses (class drop, surface change, distance change, layoff, etc etc) and take the best MP pace figure from those races. I prefer any horse I bet to be in the top 2, and definitely it needs to be not more than 2.0 points below the top MP Pace Fig for the race. As an added bonus here, the #9 Dropkick just happened to have the top MP pace figure. I really didn't need to look further.

JPEG3) The race results

JPEG4) My Bets yesterday from Twinspires. Note I only bet three races, the other two were losers, which happens frequently when betting longshots. One race (GP5) I bet two horses off long layoffs which finished a respectable 3rd and 4th 20-1 and 47-1. The other race GP1, in retrospect I should not have bet.

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[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

Heres one I came upon using Valuecapper yesterday, it was the 7th Race from Gulfstream a 1 mile race for $8,000 open claiming

JPEG1) Has the horses in order of the Valuecapper Odds (Odds). without getting too much in depth, note that the top three choices on the valucapper line had what MP calls anti-value which could be a layoff, - class drop, hard race last out, etc etc. This is what peaked my interest in the race. Next if you look to the Valuecapper odds (Odds) compared to the Actual Odds (tote) the #9 Dropkick stands out as a huge overlay (6-1 VC odds going off at 19-1 tote) the only other overlay in the race above the Arc(red line) is the #10 which I discounted mostly because of the negative class drop (claimed for 16k two back)

JPEG2) As part of my handicapping process, I go to another screen and sort the horses on their Michael Pizzolla pace figures. I have the screen set to take the best MP pace fig using his two excuse rule. It basically will go back in races until the horse does not have 2 excuses (class drop, surface change, distance change, layoff, etc etc) and take the best MP pace figure from those races. I prefer any horse I bet to be in the top 2, and definitely it needs to be not more than 2.0 points below the top MP Pace Fig for the race. As an added bonus here, the #9 Dropkick just happened to have the top MP pace figure. I really didn't need to look further.

JPEG3) The race results

JPEG4) My Bets yesterday from Twinspires. Note I only bet three races, the other two were losers, which happens frequently when betting longshots. One race (GP5) I bet two horses off long layoffs which finished a respectable 3rd and 4th 20-1 and 47-1. The other race GP1, in retrospect I should not have bet.

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thank you MH...

that was an excellent post....

just some questions:

1) Does VC create any CSV or database files to export into 3rd party programs for analysis?

2) Do you have any customization in what factors and weights to use?

thxs

Mike

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

thank you MH...

that was an excellent post....

just some questions:

1) Does VC create any CSV or database files to export into 3rd party programs for analysis?

2) Do you have any customization in what factors and weights to use?

thxs

Mike

Thanks for the kind words. To answer your questions,

#1) No there is no option to export via csv or any other way

#2) There are certain factors you can customize, and you can use several different modes of picking pacelines but there is no way to weight factors.

This software has a high learning curve, I would estimate that in two years I probably have about a 30% knowledge of everything it can do. Michael has more training material available than I believe anyone could ever watch/read.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

Thanks for the kind words. To answer your questions,

#1) No there is no option to export via csv or any other way

#2) There are certain factors you can customize, and you can use several different modes of picking pacelines but there is no way to weight factors.

This software has a high learning curve, I would estimate that in two years I probably have about a 30% knowledge of everything it can do. Michael has more training material available than I believe anyone could ever watch/read.

This is just my opinion on what you said and the way I see it...

You say big learning curve....since the program doesnt let you weigh or create factors or use a database , then why do you say it takes long?

Does his videos give you many scenarios that maybe learning them all takes time?

thxs

mike

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

This is just my opinion on what you said and the way I see it...

You say big learning curve....since the program doesnt let you weigh or create factors or use a database , then why do you say it takes long?

Does his videos give you many scenarios that maybe learning them all takes time?

thxs

mike

That is exactly it, there are many different ways to approach different races depending on surface, distance, class, weather, etc. There is also so much to look at on the various screens that one has a tendency to fixate on one or two things while ignoring some others. The curve for me was mostly learning to stay off bad bets, the software gives VIP horses on most every race (VIP=value investment potential), but it is just that......potential. This software is simply a tool and everyone uses it differently I am sure.

What I like is that I can quickly sort what I consider playable races from the fluff. For example, I think there are 44 races being run today, and only 11 of them are worth looking at from a pace handicapping standpoint. Of those 11, I am looking at only one race, before I see the odds board, still could make other bets depending on the odds.


CD5: #1Conquest Lemonraid 10-1MLO and 5-1 on the valuecapper line, based on the fact this one comes off a layoff and out of conditioned claimers I would want at least 10-1 to bet it.