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Old 05-10-2020, 11:57 PM   #31
Speed Figure
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Quote:
Originally Posted by headhawg View Post
The word "tool" was my choice because that's what I believe software to be. I might just use the word in a different contest in my next post.
Your words are right! it is a tool! That's how I use my software. I have a handful of factors that I use because I have found that the less I use the better prices I get. What the software displays is the answers to my questions. Is there a possible value play in this race? if so which horse is it! A basketball is a tool! Some players shoot 90% from the free throw line and another’s shoot 50%. The Same way MP has said guys have won the NHC using BM & VC while another’s can't make anything using them!
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Old 05-11-2020, 12:15 AM   #32
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Less can be better if its unique and constructed well....
Some have thousands and 95% are crap....

How many of MP people are winners....2-3 % ??
So that statement you can take with a grain of salt...

Its all what your comfortable using....
You can try everything under the sun but you might just end up back with the racing form...

Like I said before...the best software out there is the one that no one sees..

This chart says it all.....top 2 are home grown and other...

which Speed Figure started

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Old 05-11-2020, 12:18 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by Speed Figure View Post
The Same way MP has said guys have won the NHC using BM & VC while another’s can't make anything using them!
Over 20 NHC Tourneys, and not ONE repeat winner....So much for who used what.....Just a Crapshoot.
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Old 05-11-2020, 12:29 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall View Post
Over 20 NHC Tourneys, and not ONE repeat winner....So much for who used what.....Just a Crapshoot.
Would you expect to see someone repeat with the players basically changing every year? winning it one time is enough!
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Old 05-11-2020, 12:31 AM   #35
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MP has been putting out his so called RANTS for many years...
Once around Derby Time and then Breeders Cup....

I can honest say that I almost know how his software works...

He actually gives a decent handicapping video....
But winners are not there
He always brings up that 80 dollar horse he capped from 3 years ago .....lol

So bottom line , everyone's the same ...its all a crap shoot!!

The only people that are winners are the developers and HDW because they get paid no matter whether we win or lose...

Last edited by mikesal57; 05-11-2020 at 12:36 AM.
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Old 05-11-2020, 12:51 AM   #36
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall View Post
Over 20 NHC Tourneys, and not ONE repeat winner....So much for who used what.....Just a Crapshoot.
There have been numerous repeat winners in the tournaments held at The Coast Casino's in Las Vegas thru the years using Ken Massa HTR software which is free and all you pay is $119 per month for the data from HDW.
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Old 05-11-2020, 12:54 AM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Speed Figure View Post
Would you expect to see someone repeat with the players basically changing every year?
Over 300 qualifiers are the same core players for the last 6 years, some having been to the NHC over 10 STRAIGHT years....I'm correct in what I said, it's a crapshoot and yet I still qualify for a chance at winning the $800K....Heck, if I had just equaled what I scored the first day at 2 different events, I would have made the Final Table twice....It's tough, that's why no one repeats, no matter what they use.
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Old 05-11-2020, 12:59 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by SandyW View Post
There have been numerous repeat winners in the tournaments held at The Coast Casino's in Las Vegas thru the years using Ken Massa HTR software which is free and all you pay is $119 per month for the data from HDW.
I've heard that ....

His forum and library is structured very well.....

The free software is a added plus and Ken is updating it frequently...

If you can comment more , it would be appreciated...

thxs

Last edited by mikesal57; 05-11-2020 at 01:01 AM.
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Old 05-11-2020, 01:29 AM   #39
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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg View Post
You would be more believable if you didn't redboard all your big-money wins, starting with Race Prophet, and a couple days later--more big wins with different software.

Post some of those big wins the night before, or morning of...

Have a feeling you're going to say you couldn't give a sh*t less who believes you--that's cool.

I've gone through long periods without a win--every horseplayer has. No shame there. I would just like to see some selections in advance, if you wouldn't mind.

-NCG
Greg, to be fair you just did the same thing with that $24 horse the other day.

I "red boarded" in response to criticism of the program, not to brag I had a winner. I pointed to a couple wins to show that the software was a viable product. I don't need affirmation on a Forum to validate what I do. The only affirmation I need is the cash.

As far as Race Prophet, All I did was show how the program performed on past races. It wasn't done as a brag, as I didn't claim I had the winners. I was showing how using different categories pointed to live horses. That's all....and yes I understand you sell another program that people here use and like.

As far as being believable, I can post signers from the last 7 months totaling over 30k. Nobody would care.

You are Correct, I really don't care who believes me.

As far as posting plays the night before or morning of, many plays aren't determined until I see the tote. I'm busy looking at data, the tote, the horses, exotic payoffs, etc.. When I'm focused, posting on a forum doesn't come to mind. Thats not an insult to anyone, or an excuse. Its just how it is when I'm playing.

There are also many times I don't handicap a race until the day of, and many times I don't have a play until close to post time. I'm not thinking about posting on a forum.

When I get a chance, I will post some plays in advance. That will be no problem.

I'll probably whiff 12 in a row.

As far as posting plays, this board and other boards are littered with people listing picks. The Longshot thread has multiple picks per race, one wins. Does that really matter?? Any of it?? Are we keeping score??

I would much rather someone post a pick with an explanation as to WHY they make a pick. Win or lose, that is far more valuable than just posting a pick. Does anyone really put money thru the windows based on a pick here?? I'll give you some credit Greg, you show your program data at times with your picks. We need more discussion of races, less "look how great I am I posted a winner".

I wasn't trying to start a sh!tshow. I defended the software because I am a long time proponent of MPs way of handicapping. As stated I was a BLAM user 12 years ago. And yes, I quit because I couldn't win consistently with that software. That doesn't make it a crappy program, there were people winning with it. My very first bet, posted pre race on their message board, was a $3700 cash. My inability to consistently win starts with me, not the software.

That is the case with any program. All of them. Many people feel that a successful program just spits out winners. There isn't a program invented that can do that consistently, if so the guy that programmed it would keep it and be retired on Maui.

Software should aid in the handicapping process, formulating data that helps the user make informed and hopefully winning decisions. HSH isn't cheap but nobody mentions that price tag. Everyone puts a price on all goods. I may think a BMW is over priced, you may think its a great car and value. Same with handicapping software.

Some may think VC is over priced, others disagree. My issue is a lot of people making these declarations without having even tried it. I have it, I like it and think its worth the money.

Greg when I can I'll try and post some races the night before, then finalize after scratches and looking at the board. I will do so rarely, as we have a forum that people pay for.....so I don't want to post a lot of VC stuff here...but will post every once in awhile.

Greg GL to you and your program. Those looking for an inexpensive program can do a whole lot worse than yours. Lots of solid info. Mike GL to you as well.

I have no idea how I managed to write a response this loooooooong.

Last edited by stewball1127; 05-11-2020 at 01:34 AM.
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Old 05-11-2020, 01:39 AM   #40
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Good luck to you too Stew....

If you could post please do...even if its after the race..I'd like to see more on VC and understand the whole process...pictures would help too..

later
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Old 05-11-2020, 01:51 AM   #41
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Originally Posted by mikesal57 View Post
Good luck to you too Stew....

If you could post please do...even if its after the race..I'd like to see more on VC and understand the whole process...pictures would help too..

later
Can you do the same thing with HSH?
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Old 05-11-2020, 09:25 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by Speed Figure View Post
Can you do the same thing with HSH?
Sure.....I'll put up a race from WRD later...
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Old 05-11-2020, 12:15 PM   #43
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WRD Race #1

no early scratches & track condition not known..


Looking at the screens :

1) This is HSH Top program factors weighted by doing Fibonacci...This is a standard fixed group . This is called a Static Object and it will not change factors race to race.

2) This is my creation of eliminating those Top Factors above and using factors that I found significant via regression analysis. The final factors are chosen by the program itself via past performances for that type race. This is called a Dynamic Object , meaning things change race to race.

3) This screen "combines" 1 & 2 and list horses in order. I choose the TOP 4 as my contenders.

4) This is a screen that I deemed important that others dont.
Its the pace analysis of the race. It will show the 4 contenders from #3 and how they will fare in this race....

Handicapping this race.....

I have my contenders using # 1-3.
Using #4 , I see that the 3 horses at the top won all there races by going wire to wire ( column with Factor "esE" )
2 of my contenders win be in that early fight leaving me the 2 & 6 as my choices.

Hope this is all clear..

Good Luck

Mike

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Old 05-11-2020, 02:23 PM   #44
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Mike

Nice pick on the 2 horse. Notice that the 2 also had the angle we were discussing with Coach in its 2 back race.
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Old 05-11-2020, 02:28 PM   #45
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Exciting race. 7 had a big lead, 2 came flying from the back and tagged the 7 on the wire at a square price of 5-1.
Good job.
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