Stock Market Prediction

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Tape Reader

Would cover at the open if I were you.

i am going to watch them Sunday. as you might expect, Monday could be a big bang down day. we are overdue now to hit the triple circuit breakers. as far as my play goes, i did it with defined risk. i bought some s+p puts, put up $5000 and that's all i can lose. i am playing one bar against the other and bringing back the chart as far as i have to in order to line up my parameters. i imagine that some of the algo's are doing the same thing, just doing a better job at it.

[highernote]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

. i bought some s+p puts, put up $5000 and that's all i can lose.

What is the strike price and expiration of the puts you bought?

[lamboguy]

James Turk just brought out a great point.

Lehman Brothers were over leveraged @ 48-1

Long Term Capital leveraged 105-1

both went bankrupt

Federal Reserve now leveraged 148-1.

bottom line, the Fed is headed towards insolvency and ultimately bankruptcy even when the economy gets going again some day.

[Ocala Mike]

How can the Fed go bankrupt when it has a printing press? The implications of what you are suggesting would be calamitous!

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

How can the Fed go bankrupt when it has a printing press? The implications of what you are suggesting would be calamitous!

do you see any law on the books that says they can't go bankrupt?

if a bank had thees very same balance sheets they would go over to the bank on friday afternoon and close them up.

[highernote]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

do you see any law on the books that says they can't go bankrupt?

if a bank had thees very same balance sheets they would go over to the bank on friday afternoon and close them up.

I'm not a banking expert, but it seems to be that as long as the world conducts trade in U.S. dollars and as long as the U.S. has a printing press I don't see a problem.

The U.S. could devalue it's currency like FDR did when he called in all gold at $35 per ounce. Then Nixon devalued the U.S. dollar when he eliminated the gold standard in 1971 causing the dollar to plunge in value by a third. This was the beginning of stagflation that continued throughout the 70s. It took the Carter admin willingness to increase interest rates to 18% to bring inflation under control.

There is a lot that can happen. It will be important to know and understand the ramifications of monetary policy in the coming months. If you prepare, you might be able to profit or at least survive relatively unharmed.

My dad's business never recovered after Nixon took us off the gold standard. Gold went through the roof and he could no longer manufacture his pottery competitively with the cheap japanese imports. His pottery used gold, silver, platinum, and palladium as a decorative element. It because too expensive to buy and he couldn't get a high enough price for his pottery which was a huge blow to his business. I still have all the books he bought from back then to try to understand how to deal with devaluation of the dollar and the rise of the value of gold and silver.

That's why I recommended the book "How You Can Profit from the Coming Devaluation" by Harry Browne.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by highernote

I'm not a banking expert, but it seems to be that as long as the world conducts trade in U.S. dollars and as long as the U.S. has a printing press I don't see a problem.

The U.S. could devalue it's currency like FDR did when he called in all gold at $35 per ounce. Then Nixon devalued the U.S. dollar when he eliminated the gold standard in 1971 causing the dollar to plunge in value by a third. This was the beginning of stagflation that continued throughout the 70s. It took the Carter admin willingness to increase interest rates to 18% to bring inflation under control.

There is a lot that can happen. It will be important to know and understand the ramifications of monetary policy in the coming months. If you prepare, you might be able to profit or at least survive relatively unharmed.

My dad's business never recovered after Nixon took us off the gold standard. Gold went through the roof and he could no longer manufacture his pottery competitively with the cheap japanese imports. His pottery used gold, silver, platinum, and palladium as a decorative element. It because too expensive to buy and he couldn't get a high enough price for his pottery which was a huge blow to his business. I still have all the books he bought from back then to try to understand how to deal with devaluation of the dollar and the rise of the value of gold and silver.

That's why I recommended the book "How You Can Profit from the Coming Devaluation" by Harry Browne.

Is Harry Browne's advice similar to Peter Schiff's?

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

James Turk just brought out a great point.

Lehman Brothers were over leveraged @ 48-1

Long Term Capital leveraged 105-1

both went bankrupt

Federal Reserve now leveraged 148-1.

bottom line, the Fed is headed towards insolvency and ultimately bankruptcy even when the economy gets going again some day.

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

How can the Fed go bankrupt when it has a printing press? The implications of what you are suggesting would be calamitous!

Interesting piece about who is actually running the show:

To put it bluntly, the Fed isn’t allowed to do any of this. The central bank is only allowed to purchase or lend against securities that have government guarantee. This includes Treasury securities, agency mortgage-backed securities and the debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. An argument can be made that can also include municipal securities, but nothing in the laundry list above.

So how can they do this? The Fed will finance a special purpose vehicle (SPV) for each acronym to conduct these operations. The Treasury, using the Exchange Stabilization Fund, will make an equity investment in each SPV and be in a “first loss” position. What does this mean? In essence, the Treasury, not the Fed, is buying all these securities and backstopping of loans; the Fed is acting as banker and providing financing. The Fed hired BlackRock Inc. to purchase these securities and handle the administration of the SPVs on behalf of the owner, the Treasury.

In other words, the federal government is nationalizing large swaths of the financial markets. The Fed is providing the money to do it. BlackRock will be doing the trades.

This scheme essentially merges the Fed and Treasury into one organization. So, meet your new Fed chairman, Donald J. Trump.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-...110052807.html

[highernote]

Originally Posted by pandy

Is Harry Browne's advice similar to Peter Schiff's?

I don't know. It was written 50 years ago.

I plan on reading it.

[PaceAdvantage]

Futures are ripping up this evening...80 points higher than Friday's close on S&P...

[highernote]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Futures are ripping up this evening...80 points higher than Friday's close on S&P...

Bill Ackman has been posting on twitter and is giving the impression he is long.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Futures are ripping up this evening...80 points higher than Friday's close on S&P...

Yesterday.. Trump: 'Going to be a lot of death' in U.S. next week from coronavirus.

TODAY.. Dow futures rise as Trump administration signals that coronavirus outbreak may be stabilizing...

What a difference a day makes! Gotta push those stocks high....

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

The two out of three broad market indicators I use, says it's time to dip a few toes back in the water. But for now, will not go past the ankle. The third indicator may go green today, but these indicators have zero history during a pandemic.

Six days later, all three are Green for Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq. Russell 2000 close but not yet. My main worry is if and when a secondary outbreak hits us.

[PaceAdvantage]

Today was a fun day!

[ReplayRandall]

All clear of CV now, you can go back to your regular lives, so sayeth the Stock Market...