Rock Your World

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by taxicab

@ Class:
I think you've mentioned this a couple of times about Santa Anita on Derby day.
As a handicapper, anything exiting the Oaks/Derby card that won on the front and/or inside I want nothing to do with in their next race.
In my view the inside was souped-up but good.......and if you had speed,all the better.
I won't call it a double bias.......but there was an inside bias,and a track that eliminated closers.
Here's my takeaway........Soothsay (rail skimming ride) and Rock Your World (big bias benefit) won't do anything on Derby weekend.
The horses they beat who were stuck outside of them (Beautiful Gift/Medina Spirit).......are going to fire strong at a number.

First time someone brought up a track bias. Is there any more merit to this outside of those 2 horses?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by taxicab

@ Class:The horses they beat who were stuck outside of them (Beautiful Gift/Medina Spirit).......are going to fire strong at a number.

It's always tough for me to make these judgements off a limited number of races unless the track is screaming that there's a strong bias, but then everyone knows and I'm not sure that information has much value. I'm going to look at the PPs and watch all those replays again.

At this point I think some people have thrown in the towel on Medina Spirit. Since I think being wide close up to that fast pace was not ideal to begin with and may have been even worse that day, he's one of the horses I'm a little interested in. I'd be more interested if it was 9F instead of 10F. I think 10F is a question mark for him, but he'll be on my tickets. It's too far out now for me to have any strong opinions yet.

[cj]

At this point I think about the only conclusion you can really reach is the rail certainly wasn't bad. Watching horses rally on the outside in some races I'm not ready to say the rail was more than the usual shortest path advantage.

Luckily, the Derby is still 2.5 weeks away so we should get some runbacks from thoses race before than and have a little more to go on.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

At this point I think about the only conclusion you can really reach is the rail certainly wasn't bad. Watching horses rally on the outside in some races I'm not ready to say the rail was more than the usual shortest path advantage.

Luckily, the Derby is still 2.5 weeks away so we should get some runbacks from thoses race before than and have a little more to go on.

There were a few horses with inside/speed that outran "my" expectations, but they were the kind of horses that were eligible to move up sharply anyway. The thing is, if things like that happen, when several of them do it it becomes less likely it was random.

The one race that really fell apart and mostly developed outside was the 10th but that one came up with a fast pace. The winner dueled in the 2 path and quickly dropped to the rail in the stretch.

Enough horses picked up minor awards running outside that it wasn't an overwhelming rail bias, but something may have been going on that wasn't what I would call "the average day" at a track. If I had a horse running I'd want him on the rail, no wider than the 2 path, and close up.

I'm not sure we'll see enough run back in time to know for certain. Sometimes even after the fact I'm not certain. lol

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

First time someone brought up a track bias. Is there any more merit to this outside of those 2 horses?

With the exception of The Chosen Vron (3-5) in the final race,every horse that turned for home in front on the Saturday card won.........of those horses only Becca Taylor in the 10th was favored.
Jockey intent might of tipped off how the track was playing.
In the 2nd Jessica Pyfer really hustled to the inside/front heading into the first turn.......that move paid off nicely($14.00).
In the 4th Baffert had two live 2yo's....... Laurel Bro(4-1)/ Bobby Bo(1-2).....Laurel Bro stayed inside the entire race and cruised.
The Oaks was interesting......Prat riding Soothsay was rating inside when Moraz statred to angle directly to the rail at the 5/8ths.......suddenly Prat drove Soothsay to the rail (denying Moraz/Rispoli) in what looked like an ill timed early move......it wasn't.
FWIW: Prat moved Soothsay off the rail in the stretch forcing the 4-5 shot Beautiful Gift way out to the middle of the track.......so the argument could be made that the outside was quicksand like on the Saturday card......in race context the other two runners were beat,and Prat knew it.......so his race riding made sense.
The next dirt race (SA Derby) Rispoli made sure to get inside and he never looked back with RYW.
In the 10th race the rail hating Beca Taylor was forced next to the speedy Pray for My Owner,and then blew the race open turning for home.
The 12th race had the only off the pace dirt winner on the card.......but of course The Chosen Vron could could of given that field a furlong head start and won the race in a canter.

[Secondbest]

Rosario decides to ride Concert Tour. Flavien Prat to ride Rock Your World.

[burnsy]

I’m not so sure he decided anything. Plat might of snagged that mount with the impressive victory. Is Concert Tour a definite starter? Cause owner and Trainer didn’t sound so enthusiastic about the Derby. If something wasn’t wrong with Concert Tour that’s a bad race. Meanwhile, Rock Your World was strong the entire way. I don’t really worry about bias. If it’s dry Churchill will probably be fast any way. Most of the recent winners (minus the take down) have been in the first tier recently. More times than not these stakes races days are speed favoring anyway.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by burnsy

I’m not so sure he decided anything. Plat might of snagged that mount with the impressive victory. Is Concert Tour a definite starter? Cause owner and Trainer didn’t sound so enthusiastic about the Derby. If something wasn’t with Concert Tour that’s a bad race. Meanwhile, Rick Your World was strong the entire way. I don’t really worry about bias. If it’s dry Churchill will probably be fast any way. Most of the recent winners (minus the take down) have been in the first tier recently.

Street Sense dont make derby winners... Period... (funny is this ages poorly)

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Street Sense dont make derby winners... Period... (funny is this ages poorly)

I don’t worry about that as much. Unless it’s the favorite or second choice. They’ve been breaking the mold for years with some of these that win. But I do like Rock Your World on the Dam side. That horse could be able to run a piece. I saw people knocking him cause of Candy Ride but his mother’s side has distance. I just don’t like how tired Concert Tour got late in the race .

[Curln22]

If Caddo River doesn’t go
I’m thinking RYW could wire the field.
I’ve watched all his races several times and he has never had a issue pulling away. He is a very inexperienced horse still putting it together.
Prat is a rider upgrade

GL all

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Curln22

If Caddo River doesn’t go
I’m thinking RYW could wire the field.
I’ve watched all his races several times and he has never had a issue pulling away. He is a very inexperienced horse still putting it together.
Prat is a rider upgrade

GL all

He passes the eyes test 100%. Im not gonna over think this one. I think this crop blows thus far without Life Is Good.... He might not fit all the angles but this year I dont think you gotta.

I know the weak crop is very cliché, however i havent used it in years... These horses arent very good AT THIS POINT. The Florida circuit was bad, The Louisiana circuit was bad. NY was pathetic, Arkansas was underwhelming. And it reflects in the PPs....

Essential Quality is good and wouldn't surprise me if he won one bit... But since i already got him in an october futures bet. im going with Rock Your World heavy handed and if the favorite wins I still win pretty good.

[Curln22]

I think the lasix rule is a cause of this.

[f2tornado]

I'm going to grudgingly use him, albeit lighter than a couple others, if he looks good in two weeks since his style mostly fits the recent Derby winning bill.

The good: From 2014-2020, there were six EP7 winners and one EP5. Rock is an EP7 and none of the other higher EPs capture my imagination. Yes, he could attempt a theft and I have little reason to believe he couldn't lead them around a long way. His SA Derby almost mirrors that of Authentic minus the placing. No Caddo River improves this chance. Also, most Derby winners are coming out of the FL, SA, or Ark Derby renewals.

The bad: The figure makers have some mild disagreement just how good his SA performance was. Thorograph was weak relative to Brisnet, TimeformUS, and DRF. He'd be the second "slowest" last out Brisnet LP in last 20 years to win the Roses. The speed in this Derby is not cheap and there are quality pressers who are likely to sit a little closer. There's a fair chance he gets run down that final panel, particularly if he is challenged earlier. For perspective, Justify ran a 117 LP in SA and the Rock was 91.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

Rosario decides to ride Concert Tour. Flavien Prat to ride Rock Your World.

Isn't Flavien Prat on Hot Rod Charlie?

[cj]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Isn't Flavien Prat on Hot Rod Charlie?

Also don't think Rosario decided anything, it was decided for him when he tried to play the waiting game.