Rock Your World

[The Biscuit]

This is by far .....not even close .........the weakest 3 yr old field I have ever handicapped .....brutal



I don't have a horse I like , yet .... LOL !

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by The Biscuit

I was taking a glance at Conduit Mare Profile .... Rock Your World ......
[SIZE=-1]Rock The World will be in my 2/3/4/5 spots only

He's a female family 9f. It's not one of the stronger ones however Country House had that line... but he didn't cross the line first.

The horse has some strikes be it the White system of other angles.

Unraced at 2, only three starts, only one graded stakes and after March, unconvincing final 3/8th in 38+, only one race on dirt, never been out of CA, Rispoli isn't the first name I think of for Derby winners. Feels like a 4th or 5th place type to me. I might have a saver on him in some gimmicks since it's really hard to write off a Raise A Native Santa Anita Derby winning horse otherwise I am probably going to let him beat me.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

He's a female family 9f. It's not one of the stronger ones however Country House had that line... but he didn't cross the line first.

The horse has some strikes be it the White system of other angles.

Unraced at 2, only three starts, only one graded stakes and after March, unconvincing final 3/8th in 38+, only one race on dirt, never been out of CA, Rispoli isn't the first name I think of for Derby winners. Feels like a 4th or 5th place type to me. I might have a saver on him in some gimmicks since it's really hard to write off a Raise A Native Santa Anita Derby winning horse otherwise I am probably going to let him beat me.

In fairness he did run out to a fast pace in the Santa Anita derby thats why i give him a pass on the +38, plus RAN sire line, Santa Anita derby winner, youd think he could improved 2nd time on dirt, unraced at 2... by 16 hours or so, and an overall weak crop of horses this year.... also just fully passes the eye test.

[f2tornado]

Fast pace, yes. Is the Derby going to be any slower? There’s some good speed in this Derby and it’s not the cheap variety. Every year we say the crop stinks to the point it’s cliche to say it. I need to see the Brisnet pace figures for the Santa Anita before I fully commit one way or another. Nearly every winner had a 95+ in final prep and there are very few of those this year. I’m leaning toward Known Agenda if it’s not a slopfest. I’ll grab EQ if it’s messy. Both of those check more boxes for me but I can’t knock the Rock too hard.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by Musket Man

I'm wondering if this colt will dislike the kickback. I'm guessing Sadler and company will want an inside draw for him.


If I remember correctly, when JS ships to Churchill Downs and the state of Kentucky his record is abysmal. I have my own theory on that, but I'll refrain until I find his actual stats.

forgot about that-thanks for the reminder!
I would like to see this horse draw way on the outside and maybe pull off the ill Haveanother trip

[Dream_Police]

RYW is a sheep in wolves clothing. Who has he beaten and how low of price will you take going from a SMALL field to the 20 horse cavalry charge on May 1st. He will not get the lead as easy as he did at Santa Anita,he will have company on the front.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Dream_Police

RYW is a sheep in wolves clothing. Who has he beaten and how low of price will you take going from a SMALL field to the 20 horse cavalry charge on May 1st. He will not get the lead as easy as he did at Santa Anita,he will have company on the front.

There was nothing easy about him getting the lead at SA, he ran a 22.42 going 1 1/8 miles and was challenged while doing so.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Afleet

forgot about that-thanks for the reminder!
I would like to see this horse draw way on the outside and maybe pull off the ill Haveanother trip

Sadler did win the BC Classic at Churchill with Accelerate in 2018.

In the past year, his record with shippers to CD is 18-3-5-2 with an ROI of 1.12 per $2 bet.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by cj

There was nothing easy about him getting the lead at SA, he ran a 22.42 going 1 1/8 miles and was challenged while doing so.

Thats true. I just dont think its a great crop, i dont usually say this, i think we've had some pretty good crops over the past 15 or so years, Rock Your World passes the eye test thru and thru.

Granted im over looking Essential Quality since i hold a 31-1 futures ticket on him so im looking for another horse to put on top and for me im not gonna over think it Rock Your World looks the part. Baffert dont have a bunch of healthy world beaters this year.

[classhandicapper]

If you use speed figures it's very difficult to make comparisons between the crops now and those of the past. Years ago horses had a lot more starts prior to the Derby and were a lot further along in their development than they are now. Second, there's substantial evidence that speed figure services tend to have problems with figure drift over over the years (some sets have generally gotten faster and others slower).

I think it's way too soon to know whether this crop is good or not.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

If you use speed figures it's very difficult to make comparisons between the crops now and those of the past. Years ago horses had a lot more starts prior to the Derby and were a lot further along in their development than they are now. Second, there's substantial evidence that speed figure services tend to have problems with figure drift over over the years (some sets have generally gotten faster and others slower).

I think it's way too soon to know whether this crop is good or not.

Thats true, but there are years where i feel like there is a bunch of good horses who can win the derby. Not so much this year... Which also i guess could open it up for a bomb...

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Thats true, but there are years where i feel like there is a bunch of good horses who can win the derby. Not so much this year... Which also i guess could open it up for a bomb...

I'm pondering a potential bomber, at least in the gimmicks. I simply cannot land on one at the moment. Rock's 91 Brisnet LP in the SA Derby is below my preferred cutoff for the exacta leaving me with EQ and KA for my A list. There's a fair amount of good speed in this renewal even if we get a couple defections. Rock, Concert, Medina, Caddo, Hot Rod, EQ, HM, and a couple others have shown relatively robust E1 and E2 Brisnet pace figures. I think some of the speed is good enough to provide a semblance of a 2015 style merry go round Derby. Rock Your World's SA Derby is a near mirror image of Authentic sans the runner up result for Authentic. So, he can carry the field a good way. We know EQ and HM can duke it out through 9 panels. Known Agenda seems like the best candidate to take advantage if the speed does fold.

I can't make heads or tails from the Wood so I'd venture to guess that's where a long odds trifecta horse might come from.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I'm pondering a potential bomber, at least in the gimmicks. I simply cannot land on one at the moment. Rock's 91 Brisnet LP in the SA Derby is below my preferred cutoff for the exacta leaving me with EQ and KA for my A list. There's a fair amount of good speed in this renewal even if we get a couple defections. Rock, Concert, Medina, Caddo, Hot Rod, EQ, HM, and a couple others have shown relatively robust E1 and E2 Brisnet pace figures. I think some of the speed is good enough to provide a semblance of a 2015 style merry go round Derby. Rock Your World's SA Derby is a near mirror image of Authentic sans the runner up result for Authentic. So, he can carry the field a good way. We know EQ and HM can duke it out through 9 panels. Known Agenda seems like the best candidate to take advantage if the speed does fold.

I can't make heads or tails from the Wood so I'd venture to guess that's where a long odds trifecta horse might come from.

Leaning towards King Fury (if he gets in) and Sainthood to blow up the supers

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by cj

Sadler did win the BC Classic at Churchill with Accelerate in 2018.

In the past year, his record with shippers to CD is 18-3-5-2 with an ROI of 1.12 per $2 bet.

did DRF fire everyone? They don't even provide picks anymore or at least anytime I check (Mike Beer would throw out some useful info) . No videos from Dan Illman, Mike Beer or yourself that I've seen recently, i know Watchmaker has been gone for a long time

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I thought SA may have been tilted towards the inside and speed that day. 5 of 6 winners on dirt raced towards the inside. The one race that fell apart a bit (the 10th) was a fast pace and the winner stalked in the 2 path. In the last race the closer was 3/5 and raced inside for some of the race.

@ Class:
I think you've mentioned this a couple of times about Santa Anita on Derby day.
As a handicapper, anything exiting the Oaks/Derby card that won on the front and/or inside I want nothing to do with in their next race.
In my view the inside was souped-up but good.......and if you had speed,all the better.
I won't call it a double bias.......but there was an inside bias,and a track that eliminated closers.
Here's my takeaway........Soothsay (rail skimming ride) and Rock Your World (big bias benefit) won't do anything on Derby weekend.
The horses they beat who were stuck outside of them (Beautiful Gift/Medina Spirit).......are going to fire strong at a number.