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Old 06-30-2020, 11:58 PM   #16
CBYRacer
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Thanks, guys. I'll take a look at incorporating the post position stats into my analysis.
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Old 07-01-2020, 10:23 AM   #17
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Look for horses that did well sprinting on the turf. I know that obvious. If a horse has one race in a sprint and ran in the money or less than two lengths back you can play him and might get a price.
The further you go the more breeding counts. Check to see if the dam has turf winners.
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Old 07-01-2020, 10:49 AM   #18
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I place a lot of value in turf sprints on late pace, which seems counter-intuitive in such short races. But I believe the natural tendency is to try and get and hold the lead and the slightly off the pace types seem to close well despite the short run into the stretch.
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Old 07-01-2020, 02:37 PM   #19
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Good advice on both the late pace and previous success in turf sprints. These make a lot of sense. Thanks!
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Old 07-11-2020, 08:56 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by CBYRacer View Post
First day (and new thread) on Pace Advantage, but have been following for a couple years. Looking forward to interacting with you all.

Turf Sprints have become more common at my track over the past couple of years. I'm still trying to pinpoint why, but I struggle with these types of races. Could be because they include a variety of horse profiles (e.g., dirt sprinters switching to turf, turf cutbacks, horses off of long layoffs, etc.)

Any ideas that have worked for you all? Appreciate your insights!
You want to make money long term.

5f or less turf sprint

3700 plays ROI 1.04 (skeptical handicapper)

Fastest opening fraction in the last 10 races.

Quite simple and a money maker.

Thanks

Allan
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Old 07-11-2020, 09:40 AM   #21
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I have had success in turf sprints with routers that have been tiring in the drive. It is best if the horse has been a successful sprinter in the past. This was a real money maker when Santa Anita used to run those races down the hill.
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Old 07-11-2020, 11:40 PM   #22
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You want to make money long term.

5f or less turf sprint

3700 plays ROI 1.04 (skeptical handicapper)

Fastest opening fraction in the last 10 races.

Quite simple and a money maker.

Thanks

Allan
Thanks, Allan. So just to clarify, I should find the horse with the fastest quarter mile fraction over the past 10 races?
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Old 07-11-2020, 11:43 PM   #23
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I have had success in turf sprints with routers that have been tiring in the drive. It is best if the horse has been a successful sprinter in the past. This was a real money maker when Santa Anita used to run those races down the hill.
This seems like a great, intuitive angle. Thanks much!
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Old 07-11-2020, 11:45 PM   #24
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Show me REAL evidence of a positive ROI in conditions like this as I have NEVER KNOWN ANYONE who was able to muster a positive one....EVER
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Old 07-12-2020, 07:18 PM   #25
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I have had success in turf sprints with routers that have been tiring in the drive. It is best if the horse has been a successful sprinter in the past. This was a real money maker when Santa Anita used to run those races down the hill.
Foothill in the 4th at SA today is an example, paid $14.80.
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Old 07-13-2020, 01:45 AM   #26
CBYRacer
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Foothill in the 4th at SA today is an example, paid $14.80.
Nice! Hope you cashed it!
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Old 07-13-2020, 06:10 AM   #27
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Thanks, Allan. So just to clarify, I should find the horse with the fastest quarter mile fraction over the past 10 races?
That is correct. No modifiers.

Allan
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Old 07-13-2020, 08:48 AM   #28
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Show me REAL evidence of a positive ROI in conditions like this as I have NEVER KNOWN ANYONE who was able to muster a positive one....EVER
Like everything else in racing, these are going to depend on the track. It seems logical that the horse that is fastest early, turf or dirt, does end up stealing a bunch of these sprints. At some tracks, especially the ones (or the time of year) when the turf is more like spray painted dirt than lush grass, this is a common occurrence. The problem is that there are usually five horses in the race that are about equally fast early. Picking the right one is the challenge, and why turf sprints often leave me wishing it rained.
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Old 07-13-2020, 09:25 AM   #29
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Show me REAL evidence of a positive ROI in conditions like this as I have NEVER KNOWN ANYONE who was able to muster a positive one....EVER
No one asked for a positive roi angle - he asked for ideas of what has worked for us in the pas
t.
Thread, aside from your reply, was pretty much spot on in doing that. Sorry that in all your years of playing, you have nothing of substance to offer. Perhaps you will get an idea from theses nice replies by successful handicappers.
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Old 07-13-2020, 09:28 AM   #30
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I have lots of substantive information....I thought it was just me and asked around and loads of people believe the same way. Find a copy of Handicapping Magic by Micheal Pizzola and he mentions it as well.
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