Same Trip Different Impact

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Belmont Race #8:

Take the longest shot on the board.

Originally Posted by cj

The prices on those two horses were nuts. I never thought I'd see value in a match race.

Fig should be fun, I'll post here when done.

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I bet him too.

That may have been the most obvious overlay I've seen in a year.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Look at Zenyata's best figures. All had fast paces.

Zenyatta only ran 3 times on dirt.

[cj]

A lot of closer runs there best figs on dirt when the pace is hot because that is the ideal set up for them. They tend to expend more energy than in average or slow paced races which is going to result in the optimal final time. When the pace is not fast, they probably finish with too much energy in reserve to run their best.

Why they can't just stay closer when the pace is slower, however, is something I can't figure out. It seems like the jockey just falls asleep, but when they do get more aggressive it rarely works.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Why they can't just stay closer when the pace is slower, however, is something I can't figure out. It seems like the jockey just falls asleep, but when they do get more aggressive it rarely works.

It's odd.

It makes perfect sense that if two horses are similar overall but one is capable of going 45 while relaxed and another only 47 when relaxed, if you ask the latter for 46 it might be a problem for him even if he's physically capable.

However, with some of the really deep closers we are talking about very slow fractions.

I find it hard to believe that Zenyatta couldn't be trained to go around 24 early without it being a problem. She probably had races where her turn time or close was faster than that.

With her, it was exactly what you are saying. When she finished a lot of her races she was still absolutely loaded with reserve energy. Had the pace been faster Smith would have put her in a similar position on the turn and into the stretch anyway and she would have finished just as fast which would have lead to a faster final tim

The riders are not trying to maximize the horse's time. They are trying to put themselves in a position to win without using the horse too much because they aren't always sure what they have left in the tank either.

[jay68802]

She is a good example, ran fast enough to win the race, not as fast as she could. Also made her speed figures a great study. Came to the conclusion that there are three different types of horses in each running style. Those that are pace dependent. Pace is everything to them. The in between ones, on some days they need the pace, and on other days, they just got it and pace does not matter. And then the one that pace does not matter to, they are going to run their race no matter what.

[classhandicapper]

Beyer gave Celtic Striker an 80. That's a bit shocking to me. I'm not sure what to make of that. I was expecting a break out performance under those conditions and it sure looked like one. He fit it in with the rest of day and took it at face value. Sonneman got a 50.

[aaron]

I know this goes back quite awhile, but Forego if memory serves me correct, did win a Jockey Gold Cup on or near the lead pressing Wajima. Secretarit did win races off the pace and on the pace. Probably an average horse couldn't do this, but great ones could. Also great riders sometimes could get a horse to win with various running styles. Cordero used to change the running styles of certain horses. In today's game,we have seen horses who have never shown speed go wire to wire. Is this because the horse changed his/her running style or because the jockeys choked back ?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by aaron

I know this goes back quite awhile, but Forego if memory serves me correct, did win a Jockey Gold Cup on or near the lead pressing Wajima. Secretarit did win races off the pace and on the pace. Probably an average horse couldn't do this, but great ones could. Also great riders sometimes could get a horse to win with various running styles. Cordero used to change the running styles of certain horses. In today's game,we have seen horses who have never shown speed go wire to wire. Is this because the horse changed his/her running style or because the jockeys choked back ?

I think this gets back to the original premise of the thread in that each horses had a different amount of natural speed, stamina, ability to relax etc.. So the same exact trip can impact two similar horses differently depending on their specific mix of attributes and what that trip demanded.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Beyer gave Celtic Striker an 80. That's a bit shocking to me. I'm not sure what to make of that. I was expecting a break out performance under those conditions and it sure looked like one. He fit it in with the rest of day and took it at face value. Sonneman got a 50.

I'm not done yet, but I think it will be around a 110, so equivalent of a 90 Beyer. He ran a 107 last out. The Sonneman figure is completely irrelevant in my opinion.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by cj

A lot of closer runs there best figs on dirt when the pace is hot because that is the ideal set up for them. They tend to expend more energy than in average or slow paced races which is going to result in the optimal final time. When the pace is not fast, they probably finish with too much energy in reserve to run their best.

Why they can't just stay closer when the pace is slower, however, is something I can't figure out. It seems like the jockey just falls asleep, but when they do get more aggressive it rarely works.

So if what you say is correct, couldn't you measure how much energy is in reserve by comparing deceleration rates?

I would agree that some closers in a slow paced race will be placed too far behind the frontrunners leaving too much ground to make up on horses less likely to tire. The question is then, is this a jockey issue or a horse issue?

I do believe that most horses have their own optimal pace that will result in their fastest races. I have seen deep closers win under all pace scenarios. Obviously the scenario where there is a speed duel resulting in the pace horses faltering will produce the most winning races for a closer.

[thaskalos]

There is a difference between a closer winning the race...and the same closer running his fastest race. It's obvious that a hot early pace melt-down would enhance the winning chances of a closer. But, how does a hot contested pace propel the closer to a faster clocking than he would otherwise be capable of recording?

[thaskalos]

Another thing. My experience tells me that the hot pace usually doesn't translate to much of an advantage for a closer in a dirt SPRINT. In a sprint, the unusually-hot pace usually leaves the closer much further behind in the early going than he would prefer to be...and the race distance prevents the horse from putting his late charge to effective use. Plus...some closers will just pack it in, in this type of scenario.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

So if what you say is correct, couldn't you measure how much energy is in reserve by comparing deceleration rates?

My feeling is there is no equation that works for all horses.

That's the premise of my original post. The same trip can impact 2 horses differently depending how much natural speed and stamina they have and what trip we are talking about.

If you slow 2 similar looking horses down by a second early, that might help one of them fly home and another may only come home a little faster.

If you speed those same 2 up by a second early, it might kill one and barely impact the other.

I think you can look at generalities and try to understand a specific horse by looking at his PPs, but there is no formula applicable to all horse and sometimes you can't know until it happens.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

There is a difference between a closer winning the race...and the same closer running his fastest race. It's obvious that a hot early pace melt-down would enhance the winning chances of a closer. But, how does a hot contested pace propel the closer to a faster clocking than he would otherwise be capable of recording?

We speculated about that a little earlier in the thread.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

We speculated about that a little earlier in the thread.

I saw it...but I remain unconvinced. For as long as the game has been around...the closer has been giving the false impression that he had more energy in the tank which went unused in the race. And the horseplayers have been left salivating for "next time"...when the closer's jockey "makes an earlier move"...or when the trainer "gives the horse a little more distance". But it never seems to work out as planned. IMO...the closer's menacing late move is largely an illusion...and any optimistic future outlook that comes from it is bound to disappoint.