The Belmont Stakes: 1 turn, 9 Furlongs

[Tom]

OK. One turn. Most of the horses will be coming in to this off 1 turn route races.

Who will be benefited by the one turn, who will be hurt?
Assuming all are 100% fit and ready to go, what are you looking for? How do you transfer 2 turn races to a 1 turn race?

Pace, early speed, jockey, stamina?

Does a jockey who has never ridden at Belmont ( or lightly) have a disadvantage knowing when to make his move?

Any of the sires particularly good at having offspring do well at Belmont?

How do Belmont 1 turn races typically play out?

[classhandicapper]

They run so few races at 9F at Belmont, I always wonder what the condition of the chute will be like. Sometimes it seems like it's a lot deeper and slower. Maybe they don't work on it as much. It's not unusual to see a few 9F races with very slow first quarters that really aren't as slow at they look.

[Clocker]

The Belmont is a 1 1/2 mile race. Calling something else the Belmont doesn't make it that. It's just another 9 furlong stakes race.

If you cut the 26 mile Boston Marathon back to 10 miles and still called it the Boston Marathon, what would the public reaction be?

[porkchop]

I actually thought that the powers that be would move the preakness to saratoga as the travers two weeks later run the derby and three weeks after that run the belmont at its usual distance . it just sounds logical to me and a much better chance of allowing fans to be at the rail but not gonna happen

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Tom

OK. One turn. Most of the horses will be coming in to this off 1 turn route races.

Who will be benefited by the one turn, who will be hurt?
Assuming all are 100% fit and ready to go, what are you looking for? How do you transfer 2 turn races to a 1 turn race?

Pace, early speed, jockey, stamina?

Does a jockey who has never ridden at Belmont ( or lightly) have a disadvantage knowing when to make his move?

Any of the sires particularly good at having offspring do well at Belmont?

How do Belmont 1 turn races typically play out?

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

They run so few races at 9F at Belmont, I always wonder what the condition of the chute will be like. Sometimes it seems like it's a lot deeper and slower. Maybe they don't work on it as much. It's not unusual to see a few 9F races with very slow first quarters that really aren't as slow at they look.

It's nice for forwardly placed speed horses.

get into details and move 'E' leader and/or presser types into two categories

1. bat out of hell
2. station-to-station

The 'bat out of hell' raw speed is the type of speed who benefits most from the 1 turn route. Not that the 1-turn carries them, it's just that they don't require the ability to play a turn soon after the break. The station-to-station isn't necessarily hurt by it, but if their last race was a 2-turn, where they got a dream position exiting the 1st turn, then you have to consider that advantage may not exist at 1-turn.
I can't downgrade Tap It to Win whatsoever, since he last raced over a slightly shorter version of the same track/config.

Tiz the Law is the type of horse who can break, and then relax and cruise, and then move into a perfect stalking position. There isn't the fear of saving ground vs. getting shuffled/pinched into the first turn for Manny Franco. Post is just lovely in this situation.


Some of you guys probably have Stats and/or videos or Charts for Stakes/allowances/OCs going 9f Belmont. We've got our share of 8.5f (1m 1/16) to look at, at Belmont park, so you can kind of 'fudge' that and say 8.5f w/ a little less significance on post position, and a little more significance on stamina.

[cj]

I assumed two turns helps speed horses, gives a bigger chance those chasing lose ground. This is even more so since the horses are usually running faster on dirt during the first turn so the ground loss is more detrimental.

But, the numbers don't show it. In 9f dirt races at Belmont, average lengths behind of the winner at the 1/4 and 1/2 are 2.13 and 2.04. At all other tracks, which are all two turns, the average is 2.90 and 2.82. That is a pretty significant difference.

Maybe the hard run to the first turn when horses try to establish position takes a bigger toll on speed horses than I realized, but the why doesn't matter that much. Numbers don't lie.

[ubercapper]

Although I'm using Tiz the Law and Sole Volante on all my wagers, especially horizontals, I think the one turn route gives Fore Left a chance to outrun his odds if he runs as he did in the 2000 Guineas.


The Belmont is the last race on my Key Races blog here
https://www.amwager.com/belmont-hors...y-june-20-2020

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Clocker

The Belmont is a 1 1/2 mile race. Calling something else the Belmont doesn't make it that. It's just another 9 furlong stakes race.

If you cut the 26 mile Boston Marathon back to 10 miles and still called it the Boston Marathon, what would the public reaction be?

Yeah, that is what the thread is about......

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by ubercapper

Although I'm using Tiz the Law and Sole Volante on all my wagers, especially horizontals, I think the one turn route gives Fore Left a chance to outrun his odds if he runs as he did in the 2000 Guineas.


The Belmont is the last race on my Key Races blog here
https://www.amwager.com/belmont-hors...y-june-20-2020

Agreed .

Those are some strong opinions.

The configuration, and field really fits your Belmont long shot, Fore Left,
like a glove.

His Two Thousand Guineas in Dubai was a similar ask (style, not Graded Class), and go back to his G2 Best Pal 2yo Stakes, as well.

Has not shown the closing kick and stretch stamina, but there's a scenario where he's in the mix turning for home, and could multiply a vertical exotic payout.

Who's to say that Doug O'Neill doesn't have him thriving and ready to give a willing effort??

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Maybe the hard run to the first turn when horses try to establish position takes a bigger toll on speed horses than I realized, but the why doesn't matter that much. Numbers don't lie.

I think that's pretty much a nightmare trip unless the track is playing to the outside or the pace just happened to be very slow. I agree with what you are implying in that it's very hard to quantify exactly. I tend to try to look at the horse's overall record and excuse a trip like that unless the horse quit very quickly and very badly. The faster the pace and the wider the horse, the more likely I am to just toss the race and look at back races.

[classhandicapper]

Tiz the Law looks like an obvious and legitimate favorite, but there are quite a few horses that look eligible to jump up and aren't so far off him that they can't move past him unless he also fires a new peak. Th bigger problem (at least for me) is that from that 2nd group you can make a similar case for 4-5 horses to jump up. So it's not such an easy race to key a horse as part of the exotics.

[azeri98]

Originally Posted by Tom

OK. One turn. Most of the horses will be coming in to this off 1 turn route races.

Who will be benefited by the one turn, who will be hurt?
Assuming all are 100% fit and ready to go, what are you looking for? How do you transfer 2 turn races to a 1 turn race?

Pace, early speed, jockey, stamina?

Does a jockey who has never ridden at Belmont ( or lightly) have a disadvantage knowing when to make his move?

Any of the sires particularly good at having offspring do well at Belmont?

How do Belmont 1 turn races typically play out?

Tapit has sired 3 Belmont winners but that was at a mile and a half

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Tom

Who will be benefited by the one turn, who will be hurt?
... How do you transfer 2 turn races to a 1 turn race?

'a reach' = Pneumatic.

• Last time in Matt Winn S. 'in tight' on rail in 1st turn (of 2-turn race)
• Only has 3 races so far
• not Asmussen's best, but his Oaklawn race and Matt Winn were in the ballpark of hitting the board today
• possible forward-flow scenario, vs Tap It, TIZ and some long shots

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

'a reach' = Pneumatic.

• Last time in Matt Winn S. 'in tight' on rail in 1st turn (of 2-turn race)
• Only has 3 races so far
• not Asmussen's best, but his Oaklawn race and Matt Winn were in the ballpark of hitting the board today
• possible forward-flow scenario, vs Tap It, TIZ and some long shots

He's on my short list of horses to use.

I thought the track may have gotten a little more closer favoring later in the card last time. I'd like him more if the race had totally fallen apart, but NY Traffic also hung around as did the 4th horse early. Either way Maxfield would probably be the 2nd choice or maybe even the favorite here. He wasn't far off him on a track that certainly wasn't helping. I think he'll probably rate a bit today instead of going to the lead. I just don't see him as clearly more likely than some of the others to either pull off the upset or fill out the exacta, but I'll use him.

It's actually a very good race even if it's missing some of the best 3 yos due to injury or scheduling.

[Robert Fischer]

Class - What is going to happen with Tap It to Win??

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

He's on my short list of horses to use.

I thought the track may have gotten a little more closer favoring later in the card last time. I'd like him more if the race had totally fallen apart, but NY Traffic also hung around as did the 4th horse early. Either way Maxfield would probably be the 2nd choice or maybe even the favorite here. He wasn't far off him on a track that certainly wasn't helping. I think he'll probably rate a bit today instead of going to the lead. I just don't see him as clearly more likely than some of the others to either pull off the upset or fill out the exacta, but I'll use him.

It's actually a very good race even if it's missing some of the best 3 yos due to injury or scheduling.

Yea, he 'hung' just a bit in the Matt Winn, and although the Track didn't help, the race held apart aside from Maxfield...

I'm kinda 'reaching' with the idea that being outside, and no turns out of the gate, and maybe improving a bit as a lightly raced horse could chase into a board spot?