TimeformUS Handicapping

[kdavis7837]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Let me make am observation and suggestion.

Turf is different than dirt.
Stakes race are different than MSW and ALW races
Claimers are different from non claimers.
etc..

Each race has factors that are more or less important depending on the type of race it is.

So instead of looking for some magic number or formula that applies to all race types, try concentrating on finding out what works best in a certain situations.

I usually do, but in this case I flat out missed it, I didn't go back and far enough to determine its true run style, it wasn't the product, I figured the horse would be closer to the pace because of the drop in class from Alw with much higher race ratings to cheap claiming and the Jocks aggressiveness, ( ignored vet scratch since last as well) mistakes on several levels and the kind of things I an working on ,that and I miss judged the Jocks ability on the #4, the horse was better despite the Jock
which brings me to the spotlight feature, why do they use so many off tracks as the spotlight race? clearly as you say a different animal, I have seen them use a sloppy track for the spotlight when the races before and after matches todays surface and track conditions ? I know there is nothing wrong with designating ones own style and spotlight but it does change the dynamics of the product, IMO, Odds wise probably better the way it is, that's for sure

[cj]

Originally Posted by kdavis7837

I usually do, but in this case I flat out missed it, I didn't go back and far enough to determine its true run style, it wasn't the product, I figured the horse would be closer to the pace because of the drop in class from Alw with much higher race ratings to cheap claiming and the Jocks aggressiveness, ( ignored vet scratch since last as well) mistakes on several levels and the kind of things I an working on ,that and I miss judged the Jocks ability on the #4, the horse was better despite the Jock
which brings me to the spotlight feature, why do they use so many off tracks as the spotlight race? clearly as you say a different animal, I have seen them use a sloppy track for the spotlight when the races before and after matches todays surface and track conditions ? I know there is nothing wrong with designating ones own style and spotlight but it does change the dynamics of the product, IMO, Odds wise probably better the way it is, that's for sure

There are really two ways to label a horse with a running style and both have problems. You can use a label that tells you how the horse will be positioned today, which is what we do, or you can label the horse according to how he has run best.

I would say the 1 horse that is being discussed could be labeled any way you want, but recently he had shown the ability to lay off the pace and make up ground at times while never really showing speed. Nothing would lead anyone to believe that horse was going to suddenly go for the lead Saturday, so I have no problem with the "Closer" label we gave him at this six furlong distance. If we label him a "Speed" horse, we are saying he is going to challenge for the lead and that would affect our Pace Projector negatively.

Scrolling through his lifetime PPs, the horse has not made the lead early in a race this short or shorter in a long time, since his maiden score as a presser. Why would I consider him a speed horse today? And, in fact, he didn't run like a speed horse either. His two 6f wins came as a tracker, and his other wins were at longer distances.

If you want to tell me he has to have the lead, I'd say he had no chance in this field because he was never going to get it. I would have a tough time calling this horse a true speed horse no matter how you decide to assign a running style. He'd be a closer based on recent races in my opinion, probably a tracker based on races at 6f.

[kdavis7837]

Originally Posted by cj

There are really two ways to label a horse with a running style and both have problems. You can use a label that tells you how the horse will be positioned today, which is what we do, or you can label the horse according to how he has run best.

I would say the 1 horse that is being discussed could be labeled any way you want, but recently he had shown the ability to lay off the pace and make up ground at times while never really showing speed. Nothing would lead anyone to believe that horse was going to suddenly go for the lead Saturday, so I have no problem with the "Closer" label we gave him at this six furlong distance. If we label him a "Speed" horse, we are saying he is going to challenge for the lead and that would affect our Pace Projector negatively.

Scrolling through his lifetime PPs, the horse has not made the lead early in a race this short or shorter in a long time, since his maiden score as a presser. Why would I consider him a speed horse today? And, in fact, he didn't run like a speed horse either. His two 6f wins came as a tracker, and his other wins were at longer distances.

If you want to tell me he has to have the lead, I'd say he had no chance in this field because he was never going to get it. I would have a tough time calling this horse a true speed horse no matter how you decide to assign a running style. He'd be a closer based on recent races in my opinion, probably a tracker based on races at 6f.

Going to take a minute for me to get used to, used to the E,EP, P thing, I wasn't deputing just that someone mentioned bris had it as E-2 or something and needed the lead in a field with faster, all things being equal does style or pace numbers determine where a horse should be sitting at first call in the pace projector ? seems to me pace numbers determine position but I could be wrong

[cj]

Originally Posted by kdavis7837

Going to take a minute for me to get used to, used to the E,EP, P thing, I wasn't deputing just that someone mentioned bris had it as E-2 or something and needed the lead in a field with faster, all things being equal does style or pace numbers determine where a horse should be sitting at first call in the pace projector ? seems to me pace numbers determine position but I could be wrong

It is both at TimeformUS, Pace Projector is a combination of running styles and velocity (pace figures) for the horses.

Another thing worth mentioning, I don't trust running styles from maiden races. Sometimes there isn't much else to go on, but in those contests there many times half the field are more are completely overmatched. Many horses win those races up much closer than what eventually turns out to be the preferred style of the horse.

[kdavis7837]

Originally Posted by cj

It is both at TimeformUS, Pace Projector is a combination of running styles and velocity (pace figures) for the horses.

Another thing worth mentioning, I don't trust running styles from maiden races. Sometimes there isn't much else to go on, but in those contests there many times half the field are more are completely overmatched. Many horses win those races up much closer than what eventually turns out to be the preferred style of the horse.

Thanks for responding, its really appreciated and noted
Someone mentioned process, I honestly don't have one and jump all over the place, what is important to me now my not be after losing a couple of races...LOL so, after you sit down and log on what the first thing you look at. Conditions, class or is it style, spotlight or some other feature- what's a good starting off point in your opinion (Other than preview page ) stupid I Know but trying to narrow things down by starting from Scratch

[kdavis7837]

Never mind , I really do appreciate the reply's but I'm Just me thinking out loud, I do know how to handicap and will figure your product out eventually like just today looked at a Trainer stat on something, it was a 60 and thought to myself, 60 must be somewhere around 10%, it will come eventually. Really like the price, the layout and ease but being an old Beyer guy I really like your figures, the most accurate in the business IMO
Thanks again, you Guys should write a book on Handicapping with Timeform, I would buy it!

[Onesome]

Originally Posted by kdavis7837

Thanks for responding, its really appreciated and noted
Someone mentioned process, I honestly don't have one and jump all over the place, what is important to me now my not be after losing a couple of races...LOL so, after you sit down and log on what the first thing you look at. Conditions, class or is it style, spotlight or some other feature- what's a good starting off point in your opinion (Other than preview page ) stupid I Know but trying to narrow things down by starting from Scratch

It starts with knowing the right question that needs to be ask, IMO 90% of players get it wrong, when they start handicapping a race, they ask 'who is going to win'...you're going to get a lot of chalk this way. There's a better question to ask...'what will/have the market got wrong on this race'

[kdavis7837]

Originally Posted by Onesome

It starts with knowing the right question that needs to be ask, IMO 90% of players get it wrong, when they start handicapping a race, they ask 'who is going to win'...you're going to get a lot of chalk this way. There's a better question to ask...'what will/have the market got wrong on this race'

That's easy, here lately that would be the market thinking that I picked the winner

[thaskalos]

I've got the most precise, most ingenious handicapping method ever devised. I just can't get the horses to follow it.

[kdavis7837]

I understand the P designation next to race rating as to the blog post, ignored race with the P and the horse ran back to its lower speed ratings, so thanks BTW.
But what is the T designation, couldn’t find anything on it ?

[cj]

Originally Posted by kdavis7837

I understand the P designation next to race rating as to the blog post, ignored race with the P and the horse ran back to its lower speed ratings, so thanks BTW.
But what is the T designation, couldn’t find anything on it ?

T means the timer malfunctioned. Here are all the codes, top article. There is also an update to the 'p' code if you scroll down a little bit.

https://timeformusblog.com/

[kdavis7837]

Originally Posted by cj

T means the timer malfunctioned. Here are all the codes, top article. There is also an update to the 'p' code if you scroll down a little bit.

https://timeformusblog.com/

Thanks, I guess I didn't go back far enough because I didn't see it

[kdavis7837]

How do you handle last out top speed figure, say a horse normally runs mid 70's but off 90+ days comes back with something in the 8o's being a career high, can that horse on the same distance and surface about 25 days later be expected to repeat the 80s figure or revert back into the 70's again ? (normally if there is such a thing)

[cj]

Originally Posted by kdavis7837

How do you handle last out top speed figure, say a horse normally runs mid 70's but off 90+ days comes back with something in the 8o's being a career high, can that horse on the same distance and surface about 25 days later be expected to repeat the 80s figure or revert back into the 70's again ? (normally if there is such a thing)

It would vary by horse. Is this a young horse? Older horse? Moving up in class? Down? Trainer change? Not trying to be difficult but there is no way to answer that generically.

Assuming nothing else changed, I'd 100% assume the horse could run the figure again. But very rarely does nothing change.

[kdavis7837]

Originally Posted by cj

It would vary by horse. Is this a young horse? Older horse? Moving up in class? Down? Trainer change? Not trying to be difficult but there is no way to answer that generically.

Assuming nothing else changed, I'd 100% assume the horse could run the figure again. But very rarely does nothing change.

4 yr old with 11 starts, pretty good 84 second time with Trainer, The #1 at parx today, 1st race.
not betting race but see this fairly often and wonder best way to analyze it, Thanks