TimeformUS Handicapping

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by kdavis7837

Another Prime example, the 4 horse in the 5th at Tampa
4 races back showed the ability, comparable speed figures, 85 race rating ran a 85 at very slightly higher class level but the race rating for that race was a low 82 and the race after that a 79
had it ranked 3rd on my picks, didn't care for Jockey Mejia, 7% win rate, went with the 1 coming out of much better 93 to 97 races with pretty much the same style and comparable speed ratings on dirt
Well the 4 won paid 37.80 the 1 ran a crappy 5th, cannot seem to get out of my own way. Banging my head on the table
I mean I saw it but choose to dismiss it, again

I had the same problem...and then I decided to clearly identify the rules of my handicapping method. I took pen and paper...and wrote down step-by-step what my handicapping process was. When we don't have structure in our handicapping...then we wander haphazardly all over the place. If it's part of your handicapping process to go 4 races back for a horse's competitive race/figure...then make this a rule and do it all the time...instead of second-guessing yourself race after race. Only when we know our own rules can we eventually advance to knowing when to break them.

[kdavis7837]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I had the same problem...and then I decided to clearly identify the rules of my handicapping method. I took pen and paper...and wrote down step-by-step what my handicapping process was. When we don't have structure in our handicapping...then we wander haphazardly all over the place. If it's part of your handicapping process to go 4 races back for a horse's competitive race/figure...then make this a rule and do it all the time...instead of second-guessing yourself race after race. Only when we know our own rules can we eventually advance to knowing when to break them.

Thanks a big Part of the problem I think, I honestly do not have a handicapping process per say, I look at or put emphasis on different things all the time. Was hoping to develop a workable process using Timeform, hopefully can get some sort of structure by following advice here, I know its there I just need to find it.
Another issue I have been having is figuring out the conditions that may or may not contribute to a Horse running back to the same speed rating, I look at the final figure then compare it to the speed rating, say a horse runs a 70 final with a 73 speed figure and think, well he did an ok Job handling the pace in this particular race but what happened the 2 or 3 other races when he didn't, which horse is going to show up? I have seen horse blow fields away that ran higher numbers from 5 to 8 races back, so where was that for the last 8 races, class, distance, surface didn't change but suddenly the old horse shows up, frustrating

[Speed Figure]

Originally Posted by kdavis7837

Another Prime example, the 4 horse in the 5th at Tampa
4 races back showed the ability, comparable speed figures, 85 race rating ran a 85 at very slightly higher class level but the race rating for that race was a low 82 and the race after that a 79
had it ranked 3rd on my picks, didn't care for Jockey Mejia, 7% win rate, went with the 1 coming out of much better 93 to 97 races with pretty much the same style and comparable speed ratings on dirt
Well the 4 won paid 37.80 the 1 ran a crappy 5th, cannot seem to get out of my own way. Banging my head on the table
I mean I saw it but choose to dismiss it, again

If your trying to find longshots with 20% winning jockeys on non big stake race days good luck!

[xtb]

Originally Posted by pandy

Exactly. I know when I ran winter track in high school, it wasn't just tougher to run against one faster runner, the toughest races were when I had to run in a very well-matched group of runners where every runner was pretty fast. Then you're running in a tighter group with less gaps and the pressure is much greater. I usually ran slower in that type of situation because I just got exhausted trying to jockey for position without getting trampled. There's a certain amount of stress that every athlete has to deal with in an event and that has a big effect on the performance because the tougher the competition, the greater the stress.

Sounds like pace pressure that Randy Giles wrote about.

[kdavis7837]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

If your trying to find longshots with 20% winning jockeys on non big stake race days good luck!

No, Not really all that concerned about odds at this time, (very important I know) just threw that in there because it was part of my thinking process, but Jocks and trainers do enter into how I pick.
My main concern right now is developing a consistent and fairly reliable process using just timeform as I am getting very frustrated for not being able to put it all together, the Odds play a huge role but right now not a factor with what I am trying to accomplish

[Speed Figure]

Originally Posted by kdavis7837

No, Not really all that concerned about odds at this time, (very important I know) just threw that in there because it was part of my thinking process, but Jocks and trainers do enter into how I pick.
My main concern right now is developing a consistent and fairly reliable process using just timeform as I am getting very frustrated for not being able to put it all together, the Odds play a huge role but right now not a factor with what I am trying to accomplish

I'm not really understanding what your saying, but once I started betting the horse and not worrying about the jock things really changed. Don't let a horse that paid $37.80 get away because of a 7% jock.

[kdavis7837]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

I'm not really understanding what your saying, but once I started betting the horse and not worrying about the jock things really changed. Don't let a horse that paid $37.80 get away because of a 7% jock.

I understand, I normally shy away, at least take a second look at anything with less than a 10-12% win rate, these guys tend to find ways to get in trouble and look like monkeys on a football in the stretch, some are ok, Bugs ect. but the consistently low, yr after yr percentage Jocks burn more than they earn, Just my opinion anyway
Like I said just looking for a way to consistently handicap using timeform

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by kdavis7837

Thanks a big Part of the problem I think, I honestly do not have a handicapping process per say, I look at or put emphasis on different things all the time. Was hoping to develop a workable process using Timeform, hopefully can get some sort of structure by following advice here, I know its there I just need to find it.
Another issue I have been having is figuring out the conditions that may or may not contribute to a Horse running back to the same speed rating, I look at the final figure then compare it to the speed rating, say a horse runs a 70 final with a 73 speed figure and think, well he did an ok Job handling the pace in this particular race but what happened the 2 or 3 other races when he didn't, which horse is going to show up? I have seen horse blow fields away that ran higher numbers from 5 to 8 races back, so where was that for the last 8 races, class, distance, surface didn't change but suddenly the old horse shows up, frustrating

If you don't have a set handicapping process, and you jump on different things all the time...then you won't be able to deal with the nuances that you describe in post #30 and in the post above. You are putting the cart before the horse. I advise you to keep your betting to a minimum...and concentrate on developing a handicapping process of your own. The person who jumps to different things all the time will forever second-guess himself. Put your best handicapping ideas down on paper, and continue improving yourself from there. You must know where you are NOW before you start wondering about where you want to eventually get in the future. You need to put some STRUCTURE into your game. Jumping on different things all the time will keep you forever confused.

[kdavis7837]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If you don't have a set handicapping process, and you jump on different things all the time...then you won't be able to deal with the nuances that you describe in post #30 and in the post above. You are putting the cart before the horse. I advise you to keep your betting to a minimum...and concentrate on developing a handicapping process of your own. The person who jumps to different things all the time will forever second-guess himself. Put your best handicapping ideas down on paper, and continue improving yourself from there. You must know where you are NOW before you start wondering about where you want to eventually get in the future. You need to put some STRUCTURE into your game. Jumping on different things all the time will keep you forever confused.

Again Thank you, at this point I am not sure where to start with a Handicapping process, I usually start by looking and comparing run styles, Is this the sort of thing you mean?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by kdavis7837

Again Thank you, at this point I am not sure where to start with a Handicapping process, I usually start by looking and comparing run styles, Is this the sort of thing you mean?

If you were asked to rate yourself as a "handicapper" on a scale from 1 to 10...what rating would you give yourself? Where have you gotten your "handicapping knowledge"? Are you new to this game?

[kdavis7837]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If you were asked to rate yourself as a "handicapper" on a scale from 1 to 10...what rating would you give yourself? Where have you gotten your "handicapping knowledge"? Are you new to this game?

On a scale of 1 to 10 I would say 7?, Have owned Horses, worked for a Trainer all through high school, Groom and hotwalker, spent a million Hrs. and probably dollars at Fairmont park In Illinois, My problem started after I retired last yr and started looking for that magic number, when I had Stats, Bris, (always software) and Timeform at the same time, I only play with and keep a couple hundred dollars in my account, have managed to keep that balance the last Yr or so, Play everyday, sometimes without betting at all, only had to replenished once, have good and bad days. Somedays Cant smell a race others I do ok, just need some consistency and want to learn to take fullest advantage of Timeform, I am to analytical sometimes for my own good when I know for a fact there is no magic number but darn it I still keep looking for it

[Onesome]

So this is redboarding and don't have access to TF, looking at Brisnet so take it all with a grain of salt.

Taking a short price on the 1 was pure insanity, horse has only shown the ability to win when on the lead and that was highly questionable today (what did the TF pacegraph project btw?), a EP-2 in a field with 2 other need the lead types and 2 other heavy early types (who might throttle back).

Only 3 horses have ever won while not being near the lead early, 4,7,8 and 2 of them were in the top 3. Normally taking closers in sprint is burning money longterm, but if the track allows it and you're getting the price then when the pace collapses, speed figures don't matter.

The 5 was probably the better horse, just unlucky, a NTL type with a jockey that does well on these types and usually does get him to the lead early with figs as good as the 1 with a better price. Probably would have been my bet.

[kdavis7837]

Originally Posted by Onesome

So this is redboarding and don't have access to TF, looking at Brisnet so take it all with a grain of salt.

Taking a short price on the 1 was pure insanity, horse has only shown the ability to win when on the lead and that was highly questionable today (what did the TF pacegraph project btw?), a EP-2 in a field with 2 other need the lead types and 2 other heavy early types (who might throttle back).

Only 3 horses have ever won while not being near the lead early, 4,7,8 and 2 of them were in the top 3. Normally taking closers in sprint is burning money longterm, but if the track allows it and you're getting the price then when the pace collapses, speed figures don't matter.

The 5 was probably the better horse, just unlucky, a NTL type with a jockey that does well on these types and usually does get him to the lead early with figs as good as the 1 with a better price. Probably would have been my bet.

The 1 was listed as a closer, on Timeform frankly I didn't see it, didn't go back far enough and took it at face value as the style labeled but all I really saw was coming out of much tougher races as I was trying to utilize the race ratings, poorly I might add
Only one speed horse which was the #5, a few Trackers the 4,6,8,9
(didn't play just picked the 1 over the 10,4, ) the 4-Tracker the 10-Midpack the only ones to have run high 80's within recent (4 or less Races) speed ratings. But you are correct and I didn't see this before, the style of closer (todays designation) looks like created from recent Turf races, her better dirt races was on lead but back before a 243 day layoff, at Haw, clearly a different horse now, you have brought up one of my Issues, the difference between Bris and timeform running styles, sometimes its dramatic, going to take some adjustment and experience on my part to get used to

[Onesome]

Originally Posted by kdavis7837

The 1 was listed as a closer, on Timeform...the difference between Bris and timeform running styles, sometimes its dramatic, going to take some adjustment and experience on my part to get used to

I love CJ and his figures but the 1 being a closer is laughable, maybe that Oct25th effort is really weighing the algo, but I keep it simple with a simple rule, has the horse ever finished within 1 length of the winner while being more then 1 off at the 1st call? If the answer is no, then no f'ing way you can label the horse a closer.

These aren't robots, they're animals, it's amazing one day a horse can be Secretariat when loose on the lead but become Zippy Chippy when they can't get there.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by kdavis7837

I am to analytical sometimes for my own good when I know for a fact there is no magic number but darn it I still keep looking for it

Let me make am observation and suggestion.

Turf is different than dirt.
Stakes race are different than MSW and ALW races
Claimers are different from non claimers.
etc..

Each race has factors that are more or less important depending on the type of race it is.

So instead of looking for some magic number or formula that applies to all race types, try concentrating on finding out what works best in a certain situations.