TimeformUS Handicapping

[kdavis7837]

I have used everything over the years, every PP's from the most expensive software, Darkhorse, and always from Bris, you name it, I found out the hard way like every knowledgeable person out here says there is no magic numbers or systems, its all the way you use them. Right now I have monthly subscriptions to Bris and Timeform, I use some things from one and some things from the other but overall without all that much success. I seem to be over looking the situations in most races, because I get so engrossed in the numbers
I miss a slight class dropper or trainer angles, more often than not it seems my horse breaks slow or bad or a trip problem, I like to chalk it up to a Jockey mistakes but I know there has to be something I can do to improve. I was hoping to go into more detail about handicapping using timeform as I have found the speed and pace numbers more reliable and representative than most, I guess what I am asking is how do some approach the way they handicap using strictly timeform that 200.00 a month for both PPs is, well BS without any real advantage from the way I handicap anyway
Thanks

[CheckMark]

https://timeformus.files.wordpress.c...end-123013.pdf
How to read the pp’s

You could go in order like this:
1) Speed Figures and Pace Figures for see who is the better “quality” of speed or pace

2) Look at the Pace Projector to see where your horse will be positioned

3) Look at Trainers Ratings for different categories that match race

4) Pedigree Ratings

That’s what I would do if I were to use these pps. Sorry CJ. I’m a Brisnet and DRF guy now lol. Hopefully it helps!

[cj]

The best place to start is probably the weekly podcasts I post with David Aragona and myself. I use only TimeformUS so it is pretty much going straight to the horse's mouth.

[kdavis7837]

Example a Horse runs a 73 speed rating coming out of a MCLM 25 K but another horse Runs a 73 out of MCLM 16 K, Identical race ratings, very close pace ratings, do I assume The 25K a stronger race, its Just little things like this that bother me
A horse with low pace ratings but non the less a on the lead style (timeform labels Tracker Bris labels it E3) from the 1 hole, the pace projector has it way back, totally against its style, Should I assume it just cant keep up or assume its going to run to its style ? I know these are lame Questions but trying to adjust to just timeform and general tendency's or Rules if you will, Just going by standard Handicapping, hasn't worked for me so far so I want to improve

[Onesome]

Originally Posted by kdavis7837

Example a Horse runs a 73 speed rating coming out of a MCLM 25 K but another horse Runs a 73 out of MCLM 16 K, Identical race ratings, very close pace ratings, do I assume The 25K a stronger race, its Just little things like this that bother me
A horse with low pace ratings but non the less a on the lead style (timeform labels Tracker Bris labels it E3) from the 1 hole, the pace projector has it way back, totally against its style, Should I assume it just cant keep up or assume its going to run to its style ? I know these are lame Questions but trying to adjust to just timeform and general tendency's or Rules if you will, Just going by standard Handicapping, hasn't worked for me so far so I want to improve

My take is the horse in question has not run fast enough early in the past to be able to run fast enough early to get the lead today. One thing I always add in to typical quirin styles E/S/P is 'NTL', need to lead..a horse that has never shown to win from off the lead, if you think they ain't getting there early, just toss IMo.

A 73 is a 73, the label of the race 'shouldn't' matter (I think it was Beyer on Speed that claimed horses moving up in class ran faster BSF's then before on average and the reverse for class droppers, not sure if CJ has seen the same in TFUS).

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Onesome

My take is the horse in question has not run fast enough early in the past to be able to run fast enough early to get the lead today. One thing I always add in to typical quirin styles E/S/P is 'NTL', need to lead..a horse that has never shown to win from off the lead, if you think they ain't getting there early, just toss IMo.

A 73 is a 73, the label of the race 'shouldn't' matter (I think it was Beyer on Speed that claimed horses moving up in class ran faster BSF's then before on average and the reverse for class droppers, not sure if CJ has seen the same in TFUS).

I think you have this exactly backwards. And if I'm not mistaken, it wasn't Beyer who said it. It was Mark Cramer.

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I think you have this exactly backwards. And if I'm not mistaken, it wasn't Beyer who said it. It was Mark Cramer.

Your not mistaken. It was Mark Cramer

[kdavis7837]

After the fact: The horse in question got the lead but not without a ton of pressure from horses not generally on the lead, fell apart top of stretch, I know it’s only one example but is it safe to assume that these types will run to style regardless of past figures but not have enough to Finnish ?
One problem is bris labeled it an E, timeform a tracker which is a better label for style ? In this one example, I know not much gained from one race, Is it better to just use one PP because I think I am confusing myself because of conflicting info, I like Timeform speed and pace figures but bris style and track bias info is good as well, wish there was a way to include both without having to purchase both, sucks

[cj]

Originally Posted by kdavis7837

After the fact: The horse in question got the lead but not without a ton of pressure from horses not generally on the lead, fell apart top of stretch, I know it’s only one example but is it safe to assume that these types will run to style regardless of past figures but not have enough to Finnish ?
One problem is bris labeled it an E, timeform a tracker which is a better label for style ? In this one example, I know not much gained from one race, Is it better to just use one PP because I think I am confusing myself because of conflicting info, I like Timeform speed and pace figures but bris style and track bias info is good as well, wish there was a way to include both without having to purchase both, sucks

I'll get back later today, about to record the podcast which I'll post here on PA as usual. styles look like this:

Leader (Need the Lead) , compares to E on others
Speed Also compares to E, not necessarily need the lead but prefer the front
Tracker, compares to EP
Midpack, compares to P
Closer, compares to S
Plodder, a poorer version of S

In any particular there race there would be a large number of Leaders and/or Speeds, but only one can actually lead obviously. Does that make the label right or wrong? Probably not IMO.

[cj]

Originally Posted by kdavis7837

Example a Horse runs a 73 speed rating coming out of a MCLM 25 K but another horse Runs a 73 out of MCLM 16 K, Identical race ratings, very close pace ratings, do I assume The 25K a stronger race, its Just little things like this that bother me
A horse with low pace ratings but non the less a on the lead style (timeform labels Tracker Bris labels it E3) from the 1 hole, the pace projector has it way back, totally against its style, Should I assume it just cant keep up or assume its going to run to its style ? I know these are lame Questions but trying to adjust to just timeform and general tendency's or Rules if you will, Just going by standard Handicapping, hasn't worked for me so far so I want to improve

We give a race rating for each race would should tell you which race is stronger. I actually just used this (redboard alert) to cash in the 2nd at Tampa. I thought the favored filly was ridiculous, the 4 horse:



I bet the 1, a horse that earned a 95 in a much better race, 105 Race Rating. And this came over five months ago so he should be faster if ready to go. At 9-2 I thought he was a great bet.

The favored filly ran an 88 in a race rated only an 80, a very weak race. She was undefeated in three starts, her best speed figure a 92 and all in weaker races, best Race Rating an 84.

There was another horse that took almost as much money as the favorite, the 3 horse. But this horse had been beating up on Ohio breds. His last race was a 95 like the winner, but came in a weak race with only an 85 Race Rating.

That said, classhandicapper could probably tell you more about the Race Ratings than I can. I just use them, he helped create them.

[cj]

The other thing about that race is just looking at the chart of the 1's last race, it was clear what a great race it was. This is something I use extensively with TimeformUS. I dig through the charts where you can scroll through all the horses in each race and the entire careers of each. You need a subscription to do this, can't just buy one card and get it, but it is worth it in my opinion.



Silver Prospector won the G3 Southwest this year.

Finnick the Fierce was a very good third last out in the Nadal division of the Arkansas Derby, previously won a very good allowance race (via DQ).

Tiz the Law is one of the top 3 Derby contenders with wins in the Florida Derby and the Holy Bull.

Enforceable won the Lecomte next out.

South Bend, not shown, has been running competitively in stakes all year.

[trytrytry]

good thread here on a product most dont know much about.

[cj]

Originally Posted by trytrytry

good thread here on a product most dont know much about.

I hope most think it is a good thing in that here you get direct access to the main guy. I try to help as much as possible without being an over the top salesman.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

The other thing about that race is just looking at the chart of the 1's last race, it was clear what a great race it was. This is something I use extensively with TimeformUS. I dig through the charts where you can scroll through all the horses in each race and the entire careers of each. You need a subscription to do this, can't just buy one card and get it, but it is worth it in my opinion.



Silver Prospector won the G3 Southwest this year.

Finnick the Fierce was a very good third last out in the Nadal division of the Arkansas Derby, previously won a very good allowance race (via DQ).

Tiz the Law is one of the top 3 Derby contenders with wins in the Florida Derby and the Holy Bull.

Enforceable won the Lecomte next out.

South Bend, not shown, has been running competitively in stakes all year.

You are starting to sound like a classhandicapper.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

You are starting to sound like a classhandicapper.

God forbid.