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05-07-2020, 11:04 AM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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Here's a test horse in the first at GP today (30/1 ML)....tough post position in a 5F sprint.
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-07-2020, 11:07 AM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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Another in the 4th at 20/1 ML
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-07-2020, 11:11 AM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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One more.......
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-07-2020, 11:15 AM
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#34
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,860
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Quote:
Originally Posted by usfgeology
That certainly makes it easier to qualify...but I think you will erode your value because this is more obvious to me than something like this with a hidden winner off the company line.
I'll add my thought that Key Race angles in a vacuum are meaningless. It's just a binary analysis of the results of a race. Three next time out winners exiting the same race could all be class droppers. The RIGHT side doesn't give context. My gut says this angle will payoff proportionally to the amount of time you spend analyzing ALL horses exiting the Key Race.
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Having a hidden next out winner requires more than the PPS, which is the nice part of this angle - you can see potential plays at a glance while doing other normal handicapping.
And the price he has seen so far make it really interesting to follow up on - how many losers does a $73 winner cover?
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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05-07-2020, 11:41 AM
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#35
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,860
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Here's one at Tampa Bay Friday, Race 9 - Turf
The intervening race was a dirt sprint, today, back to a turf route.
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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05-07-2020, 11:41 AM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: Tampa Bay
Posts: 1,100
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Good points Tom.
Tough to get more proportional value than double digit winners on quick screen angles...
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05-07-2020, 01:13 PM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: Tampa Bay
Posts: 1,100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coachv30
Here's a test horse in the first at GP today (30/1 ML)....tough post position in a 5F sprint.
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Made a pretty decent move up the rail at the end to catch 5th at 80-1...
One to watch third out after the key race...
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05-07-2020, 02:40 PM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coachv30
Another in the 4th at 20/1 ML
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SCRATCHED
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-07-2020, 08:20 PM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coachv30
One more.......
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Won as the 5/2 favorite
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-07-2020, 10:44 PM
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#40
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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Here's one in the 10th at Gulfstream tomorrow.
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-08-2020, 08:10 AM
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#41
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coachv30
Here's one in the 10th at Gulfstream tomorrow.
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EXCELLENT EXAMPLE!!!
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05-08-2020, 08:50 AM
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#42
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,755
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coachv30
Here's one in the 10th at Gulfstream tomorrow.
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This one also has a jockey switch to a rider who has won with the horse before.
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05-08-2020, 08:59 AM
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#43
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Secondbest
This one also has a jockey switch to a rider who has won with the horse before.
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Would like to see the competition and the favorite to really see the big picture
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05-08-2020, 09:20 AM
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#44
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
Would like to see the competition and the favorite to really see the big picture
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I see 2 horses to beat in this race.....the 6 which he beat in that win
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the #1....which I see as THE ONE to beat...
Either way...a very good shot for the 3 to win...hope the odds stay high
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1.JPG (178.2 KB, 34 views) |
Last edited by mikesal57; 05-08-2020 at 09:23 AM.
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05-08-2020, 11:46 AM
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,610
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I like the idea of key races potentially identifying races that were stronger than the reported speed figure indicates and I like the idea of being able to toss an excusable race to get a better price. However, I suspect no set of rules alone is going to lead to profits. A set of rules may be a good place to start for finding live horses, but you are still going to have to evaluate whether that last race really deserves a pass just because he went up in class a little and whether the horse is spotted well enough to win today even if he's a little better than he looks on paper.
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