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05-06-2020, 06:25 PM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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This one was off a Key Race last out...no class drop however.
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-06-2020, 06:30 PM
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#17
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Registered User
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Location: Philadelphia area
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Maybe it doesn't have to be a key race if the horse ran well against one next-out winner....IDK, just some discussion points.
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-06-2020, 06:35 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
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Here's one....
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-06-2020, 06:59 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
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Another example of where only one listed runner is shown to come back and win. May be worth following if the price is right.
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-06-2020, 07:12 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
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Again....one next-out winner evident two back. Meaningful or not? Just saying there may be more we can get from that right side of the program.
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-06-2020, 07:29 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
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and....one more. Interested to hear opinions about this.
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-06-2020, 07:41 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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Not a huge price but a nice find...
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-06-2020, 07:49 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
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This one got away at 9/1..
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A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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05-07-2020, 03:26 AM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,569
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I don't mean to spoil the party here, but, if the past performances of the entire field are not shown...how can we know how many of these horses are in each individual race? You are listing these winning horses as "qualified selections"...but were they the lone qualifiers in their respective races? Do you have a suitable tiebreaker?
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"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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05-07-2020, 08:44 AM
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#25
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I don't mean to spoil the party here, but, if the past performances of the entire field are not shown...how can we know how many of these horses are in each individual race? You are listing these winning horses as "qualified selections"...but were they the lone qualifiers in their respective races? Do you have a suitable tiebreaker?
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I would bet 2 horse if I know they came out of key races...
Also, I wouldnt just look at the 2nd race back as key.....
I'd look at at least last 3 races to find one...
you never know if the horse had a problem in a race or maybe the trainer is
setting horse up for the "right" race
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05-07-2020, 09:14 AM
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#26
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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Well, it looks interesting so far.
We could start a thread here to have multiple people on the lookout for more samples and post them.
I like the idea of two of the top 3 finishers coming back to win....
An old HTR member, Carl, used to create spot play using three factors, and one of them negative, to make the horse look ugly. The layoff would satisfy that.
This has potential, I think.
I will start looking and add to the list if I find some.
Great Thread, Coach.....
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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05-07-2020, 10:17 AM
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#27
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Registered Loser
Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 2,633
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A good performance followed by a poor performance after a raise in class , then a lay-off , and a drop in class ,on it's own, is a tried and true long-shot method from the past. The new wrinkle is the key race.
Last edited by jk3521; 05-07-2020 at 10:22 AM.
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05-07-2020, 10:30 AM
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#28
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jk3521
A good performance followed by a poor performance after a raise in class , then a lay-off , and a drop in class ,on it's own, is a tried and true long-shot method from the past. The new wrinkle is the key race.
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Shit...I see new wrinkles every day 
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05-07-2020, 10:46 AM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: Tampa Bay
Posts: 1,100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
I like the idea of two of the top 3 finishers coming back to win....
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That certainly makes it easier to qualify...but I think you will erode your value because this is more obvious to me than something like this with a hidden winner off the company line.
I'll add my thought that Key Race angles in a vacuum are meaningless. It's just a binary analysis of the results of a race. Three next time out winners exiting the same race could all be class droppers. The RIGHT side doesn't give context. My gut says this angle will payoff proportionally to the amount of time you spend analyzing ALL horses exiting the Key Race.
Last edited by usfgeology; 05-07-2020 at 10:55 AM.
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05-07-2020, 10:58 AM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I don't mean to spoil the party here, but, if the past performances of the entire field are not shown...how can we know how many of these horses are in each individual race? You are listing these winning horses as "qualified selections"...but were they the lone qualifiers in their respective races? Do you have a suitable tiebreaker?
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Hi Thask.....
I get what you're saying....some of these races may have had multiple horses that fit this angle......correct? If so, maybe just WP wagers on those qualifiers that meet a certain value based off of your odds line.
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