How to determine a track bias

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Magister Ludi

Obviously, I can't speak for Mr. Cratos. However, accurate remote non-contact weighing can be performed with machine vision.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by rsetup

The answer to all your data issues: write some Python code to pull data from videos.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Using Trakus data, you can independently check each horse race performance and I would think that you would calculate “work” done by the horse to understand how its energy was distributed.

[rsetup]

:

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

Visual Basic or bust?

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by rsetup

:

Visual Basic or bust?

What do you mean ??

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think people get confused by certain types of biases.

1. There are biases where the entire surface is more or less tiring than usual.

2. There are biases where certain paths may be faster than others.

3. There are biases where certain paths may be more or less tiring than others.

The distinction between #2 and #3 is significant when trying to understand what's going on with horses running on the rail. It's sometimes why it appears there is conflicting evidence when there actually isn't.

Exactly these are not speed or closer biases but path biases.

[BCOURTNEY]

Originally Posted by Magister Ludi

Obviously, I can't speak for Mr. Cratos. However, accurate remote non-contact weighing can be performed with machine vision.

(Heart Girth^2 x Body Length) ÷ 330

I'll give it a spin. I'm more interested in other video analytics which are much more telling of performance expectations.

[BCOURTNEY]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

What do you mean ??

He means Visual Basic ... forever.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Exactly these are not speed or closer biases but path biases.

Why don't any of the "PATH-BIAS" detectives ever post up a selection--with your carefully-gleaned info on such a horse being a "PATH-BIAS" victim last out-and sure to run better today?

There is absolutely no value in guessing at a bias.....

This is this just mental chewing gum--with no actual real-world value

Oh well...makes interesting fodder for horse forums I suppose.

[EMD4ME]

Are you kidding or just validating the use of your software (which obviously wants to deter anyone from believing that paths or biases matter)???

You seriously must be joking. Have you ever watched a race from the mountain? Do you any idea how the inside paths have been total quicksand most of this summer?

Of course you do. You can't be that naive but you want your purchasers to be ......

And yes I have made many picks off dead path trips.

No value? Are you kidding? That is where immense value comes!

I can't read you. Not sure if its selfish intent or denial or a combination.

[Tom]

If you base everything on a long term computer model you will never spot the aberrant days, where the opportunity to capitalize hide out.
Like being able to judge horses who were aided by a golden rail, or compromised by a dead one. Isn't that what knowing if there was a bias or not?

And it has nothing to do with work or weight or anything like that.

[BCOURTNEY]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Using Trakus data, you can independently check each horse race performance and I would think that you would calculate “work” done by the horse to understand how its energy was distributed.

I haven't tested this at all. However, I can see where joules is a great unit to use to describe energy, and most track bias discussions seem to center around it's conservation, distribution and expenditure. It would be interesting to model energy ravines for path biases for example - to measure what others are qualitatively in a quantitative way. Thread discussed the need for a yardstick to measure bias, joules is a valid candidate. We also need a control data set to evaluate or detect bias. Others have added useful information about the types of biases being observed. I don't use joules in my models but seems very interesting.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

When someone takes into account the factors such as whether the horses with the early lead are the ones that figured to win or whether they are taking advantage of a slow pace,or whether the rail was dead or fast not, then these so-called track speed biases disappear.

The silliest question I've heard is asking how the track is playing on the basis of the 1st 3 races where the winners went wire to wire without taking all these factors into consideration.

I'm still waiting to hear a reasonable explanation as to how the track surface can magically distinguish the difference between the hooves of front-runners and closers and favor one over the other.

The track surface does not magically distinguish between a front runners hooves and a closers hooves. However, if there was overnight or morning rain, for example, the inner paths on a turn might retain more water, which can cause horses who are leading (to spend more energy working through that part of the track). Which then gives the 1st over presser / dueler an obviously easier trip. This creates more race flow which brings more closers into the race (in the better -outside paths)

Just one example.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Are you kidding or just validating the use of your software (which obviously wants to deter anyone from believing that paths or biases matter)???

You seriously must be joking. Have you ever watched a race from the mountain? Do you any idea how the inside paths have been total quicksand most of this summer?

Of course you do. You can't be that naive but you want your purchasers to be ......

And yes I have made many picks off dead path trips.

No value? Are you kidding? That is where immense value comes!

I can't read you. Not sure if its selfish intent or denial or a combination.

I'm going to disregard your post since you can't get past the fact I sell software... and everything I post you turn it around towards that end.

You seriously must be joking if you're gonna continue to red-board about past wins. I have my opinions---and if you had any cajones you would stand by yours--in the real world of today.

If you're going to discuss an issue--try to stay on point.

Have a good evening.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

I'm going to disregard your post since you can't get past the fact I sell software... and everything I post you turn it around towards that end.

You seriously must be joking if you're gonna continue to red-board about past wins. I have my opinions---and if you had any cajones you would stand by yours--in the real world of today.

If you're going to discuss an issue--try to stay on point.

Have a good evening.

Greg, I couldn't care less about your software or anything to do with your software.

The reason I brought it up is SOLELY because you knocked the existance of track/path biases. I am SO STUPIFIED that you would feel that way, so I searched for any reason why you might feel that way.

I didn't need to search very far. The answer is extremely obvious.

Don't hate the messenger. Hate the message and please don't misplace your guilt on me (deflection).

Nevertheless, we're cool. I thought I made that clear but if you make statements in a bias thread that are ridiculous, I will call you out on it.

Good luck betting inside speeds, , on dead inside path nights at the Mountain. Let me know how that works out for you. I'm sure each loss will be an isolated event.

You have a good night too

P.S. As far as I know, one POSTER in this entire BOARD, has had the guts to post ADW stats REPEATEDLY. I don't need to prove jacks hit to anyone here.