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Old 09-06-2016, 08:42 PM   #16
BCOURTNEY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
So we have a bias that affects the flow of the horses, favoring speed, hindering speed.

Then we have post bias, ie, dead rail, golden rail.

Do the same factors cause both types, or are there other things at play?

Is there a third type?
There are hundreds of types, some human determinable, some only computer detectable, probably makes sense to qualify which subset this thread will focus on. I already see about 15 or so biases mentioned so far.

DRF:
TRACK BIAS- A racing surface that favors a particular running style or position; horses that run on the lead or on the rail.

This seems to combine energy conservation and expenditure and physical positioning. The question is if those all belong together, especially if they can occur independently.

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Old 09-06-2016, 10:57 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BCOURTNEY
There are hundreds of types, some human determinable, some only computer detectable, probably makes sense to qualify which subset this thread will focus on. I already see about 15 or so biases mentioned so far.

DRF:
TRACK BIAS- A racing surface that favors a particular running style or position; horses that run on the lead or on the rail.

This seems to combine energy conservation and expenditure and physical positioning. The question is if those all belong together, especially if they can occur independently.
I don’t disagree that there are n-number of biases that affects a horse’s race performance, but the 4 major measurable biases that invariably affects a horse performance during a race and ranked in terms of impact when they occur are:

• Aerodynamic drag (air resistance) – this is a biggie because the racehorse has a longitudinal drag coefficient of about .60 with the aerodynamic abilities of the horse measured using the horse’s coefficient of drag.

• Wind Resistance is the next adverse force confronting the horse’s performance, but its impact is inconsistent due to the weather changes.

• Turn Impact can change a race very quickly; particularly when the air resistance is added in.

• Lastly the surface resistance will have an impact; especially when the track surface is soft (turf or dirt) and deforming when under pressure. This also increased the resistance to motion.
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Old 09-06-2016, 11:00 PM   #18
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I would say pace more often than not is the main cause of a single race bias.
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Old 09-06-2016, 11:10 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
I would say pace more often than not is the main cause of a single race bias.
Pace = bias??.....Pace = a wrongly perceived bias..
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Old 09-06-2016, 11:16 PM   #20
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Pace = bias??.....Pace = a wrongly perceived bias..
You'd bet a horse that ran well against a bias. Wouldn't you also bet a horse that ran well against the pace or flow of the race? I certainly would.
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Old 09-06-2016, 11:28 PM   #21
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You'd bet a horse that ran well against a bias. Wouldn't you also bet a horse that ran well against the pace or flow of the race ? I certainly would.

Pace
and race flow are totally different entities.
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Old 09-06-2016, 11:35 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by rsetup
You'd bet a horse that ran well against a bias. Wouldn't you also bet a horse that ran well against the pace or flow of the race? I certainly would.
I think the purpose of this thread(maybe I'm wrong), is HOW to determine a track bias. What I may think is conclusive proof of an existing bias, may be seen totally different from another handicapper. Bottom-line, there are more errors made by bettors on "perceived" biases, there just isn't a consistency of analysis for a conclusive edge to be found for most players. Obvious dead-rail biases are almost always apparent, sometimes during the race-card, but mostly after the completion of the card, in retrospect only......Who truly knows what the bias of any track will be, if at all, BEFORE the card has run?
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Old 09-06-2016, 11:40 PM   #23
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Track bias and horse confirmation must be linked...the shape of the body, the weight of the animal, the shape of the hoof, how the horse carries himself throughout the race...all of the above coupled with the composition of the racing surface, wind, etc...
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Old 09-06-2016, 11:46 PM   #24
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At what point can you determine a bias is present? After one race? three races? (usable the same day) or is it the next day (using the data for future wagers / bet againsts)
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Old 09-06-2016, 11:55 PM   #25
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When race after race in a day's card is won by the front-runners, but the last race finds the closers running 1-2...what "track bias" assessment do we make?
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Old 09-06-2016, 11:57 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by thaskalos

Pace
and race flow are totally different entities.
Exactly. Numeric pace doesn't completely capture race setups
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Old 09-07-2016, 12:12 AM   #27
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Tom, in my mind an unbalanced pace is the principal cause of the single race bias, either too much or too little speed in the field. You're an ex-Sartin guy; think match-up.

Bye and large, I think track biases are caused by track maintenance, lack of same, and weather. It doesn't matter much what the cause is, the meat of the matter is to separate the real thing from the mirage of a bias. Evaluation of track biases has been a specialty (or fetish, take your pick) of mine for over 30 years.

Because everyone has become familiar or obsessed with pace handicapping, I have more or less been forced to rely on soft skills like bias identification and evaluation, body language, and pre-race warmup evaluation to stay competitive at the windows. Come to think of it, (proper application of) form cycle evaluation still creates value at times, but is really hard to do well consistently, because it demands time and focused concentration.
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Old 09-07-2016, 08:01 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
When race after race in a day's card is won by the front-runners, but the last race finds the closers running 1-2...what "track bias" assessment do we make?
Fast pace - meltdown?
Cheap early horses?
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Old 09-07-2016, 08:04 AM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Pace = bias??.....Pace = a wrongly perceived bias..
I said a single race bias.
If you get a pace meltdown, do you suppose the track bias favored closers?
As CJ said, you have to know what a normal track is. Extreme pace races should then be left out of the track bias evaluation. You need to strip out results you can explain first.
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Last edited by Tom; 09-07-2016 at 08:10 AM.
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Old 09-07-2016, 08:13 AM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos

Pace
and race flow are totally different entities.
Question-
What do you consider Race Flow to mean?
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