i am sick of Tacitus

[cj]

I didn't realize the Woodward was 10f this year. I don't mind that.

I remember Pletcher skipping that one with Cross Traffic, but he did run Liam's Map in both. That might have changed had Liam's Map won the Whitney but who knows really. Running in both was so taxing he had to duck the Classic, a race he'd have been 2nd choice in, for the Dirt Mile.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Who are all these horses he was falling behind?

Horses like Code of Honor and Maximum Security have move forward much more than he has. To that list I'd add Vekoma, Improbable, By My Standards and Mucho Gusto. They've all moved forward more.

Some of them have different distance preferences and others have been retired or hurt. However, my point is when you run a 97 Beyer in the Wood Memorial with a very rough trip as a spring 3yo and are still running around 100 as a 4yo, you haven't developed as much as the typical top 3yo.

Most early 3yos develop 7-10 points or more and some keep developing into their 4yo season. I would argue that in a few months AP Honor and some of the other top 3yos have a good chance to move past him unless he finally takes a big step forward. It's not impossible that he still breaks out as a very late developer, but we are still waiting. It usually happens by now.

(By the way, I also argued that the Oaklawn race was way better than the Suburban even though they have the same class designation. He took a huge class drop Saturday).

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by the little guy

So, let's make the list of horses from Tacitus's crop that we can clearly say are better than him.

Forget what the trolls on Twitter say and stick to serious discussion.

IMO, you are still missing or refusing to acknowledge the point I have been making.

It's not that he wouldn't have won more races with a clean trip. It's that he ran a 97 with a horrible trip in the Wood Memorial and he still hasn't broken out of the 100 Beyer range over a year later with clean trips.

At some point, you have to say to yourself, he was a good early 3yo that would have accomplished more except for some bad trips, but he also is not developing as much as the typical 3yo, hasn't been able to overcome any adversity to win a race, and isn't nearly as good as I once hoped. I came to that conclusion after the JCGC and feel like I was late to realize it.

That's not a horrible condemnation of the horse. It's an honest assessment.

[classhandicapper]

Hopefully this will be my last post on this subject, but it deserves further comment if you are speed figure inclined.

Earlier in the thread I noted that CJ has Tacitus running around 7 points faster (127- ~20 =107) than Beyer in the Suburban. As the only 10F race of the day and with my suspicion that Beyer and CJ have different time charts for 10F at Belmont, it's possible to conclude Tacitus did break out Saturday. Personally, I think both interpretations of the result make some sense given their own figures going in and a good case can be made either way depending on the figures you are using.

If you want to argue pro Tacitus with figures, use Timeform.

If you want to argue con Tacitus with figures, use Beyer.

[Tom]

The only question about Tacitus were is he worth a bet?

If you bet horizontal, you had to decide if he could win and worth including? Was he an A,B or C horse? Was he a play against?

You had to use him in verticals.

If you bet win, it was a good time for a hot dog and a beer.

Myself, I had a white hot and a Labatts.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Hopefully this will be my last post on this subject, but it deserves further comment if you are speed figure inclined.

Earlier in the thread I noted that CJ has Tacitus running around 7 points faster (127- ~20 =107) than Beyer in the Suburban. As the only 10F race of the day and with my suspicion that Beyer and CJ have different time charts for 10F at Belmont, it's possible to conclude Tacitus did break out Saturday. Personally, I think both interpretations of the result make some sense given their own figures going in and a good case can be made either way depending on the figures you are using.

If you want to argue pro Tacitus with figures, use Timeform.

If you want to argue con Tacitus with figures, use Beyer.

It's possible he had a breakout race. It's possible with the easier competition and the short field he was able to finally run his race.

I will say, if you had told me before the race "Tacitus is about 8 lengths better than Parsimony at 1 1/4 miles", I wouldn't have argued with you. We would need to see him run against some better horses again before making a definitive conclusion.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Horses like Code of Honor and Maximum Security have move forward much more than he has. To that list I'd add Vekoma, Improbable, By My Standards and Mucho Gusto. They've all moved forward more.

Code of Honor clearly separated himself from Tacitus in the Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup; some of that margin was amplified in my opinion by the ill-advised use of blinkers on Tacitus (which radically altered his running style) .

Maximum Security, although clearly a standout, has not developed further in his two turn races from the spring; he sat out the fall and showed improvement figure-wise around one-turn; the Saudi Cup form b/w Maximus Security and Tacitus was not radically different from the Kentucky Derby. Now under a cloud of suspicion and a new training program that may or may not benefit a horse that once started for $10K.

Vekoma, buried in the Derby, sat out the next 10 months or so and has come back sprinting to great effect. Even around one turn, he hasn't shown that much progress beyond figures. Network Effect had about 1.5 lengths to find on him as a 2yo and the margin is still the same now as 4yos.

Improbable woke up when dropped in trip and class after making no impression in 2 classics then completely fell apart despite staying in 2nd tier races the rest of the year. Mercifully got a break, and has shown promise pummeling the Suburban West...I mean Hollywood Gold Cup. We'll see if he can put 2 good races back-to-back.

By My Standards was an upstart last year on a secondary circuit and got drilled in the Derby, then went into a hole for the next 10 months. Still came back the upstart getting no respect on the board and won 2 grade 2 races. May have proven he is nothing more than a grade 2 horse when stomped on by Tom's d'Etat last out.

Mucho Gusto, widely inconsistent on form, was abandoned as a classic prospect and clawed his way back in second tier races before looking like a comer in the Haskell. It's been all down hill from there unless you're impressed with his facile win the Pegasus Allowance Cup or his erratic finish in Saudi Arabia. In retrospect, perhaps his Haskell just proves that Maximum Security has not progressed much (at least round 2 turns). Mucho Gusto hasn't worked in over 4 months now.

Meanwhile, Tacitus, who--aside from skipping the Preakness--ran in the top tier 3yo route races throughout the year. No big layoff, no cutback in distance, no trips to Indiana Grand or Remington Park. Despite a seasonal break after the JCGC he ambitiously placed in Saudi Arabia in his comeback and was hardly embarrassed. Now--like Improbable--after another tuneup he comes off a big run over some modest foes.

Most early 3yos develop 7-10 points or more and some keep developing into their 4yo season. I would argue that in a few months AP Honor and some of the other top 3yos have a good chance to move past him unless he finally takes a big step forward. It's not impossible that he still breaks out as a very late developer, but we are still waiting. It usually happens by now.

Plenty of horses have gotten better well beyond the 3yo and 4yo years. Cigar, Black Tie Affair, Speightstown, Riboletta, Accelerate, Pleasant Tap, Left Bank, The Wicked North, Singspiel, Sky Classic, Rubiano, Queena, Paradise Creek, Kotashaan, Escena, Criminal Type, Theatrical, Lemhi Gold, Pleasantly Perfect, Gift Box, Melatonin, Ron The Greek, Vigors, Wekiva Springs, etc.

(By the way, I also argued that the Oaklawn race was way better than the Suburban even though they have the same class designation. He took a huge class drop Saturday).

It certainly had way more horses. The top 3 all got outrun subsequently against tougher. Tacitus and Night Ops came out to win graded stakes this weekend.

[classhandicapper]

Spalding,

I'm not going to go through the record of each of those horses.

Suffice to say, they are all running better Beyer figures now than they were at around the same Tacitus broke out in the Wood Memorial with a terrible trip. He is not.

By My Standards just beat him at Oaklawn and Mucho Gutso finished ahead of him in Saudi Arabia after being around a 90 Beyer horse and not a serious Triple Crown horse in the spring.

I'm open to the possibility Tacitus will be a very late developer.

I'm open to the possibility that his Beyer for the Suburban is a little low.

If the point you and Andy are trying to make is that the trolls on Twitter have been unduly harsh, I agree. I even made the case for betting him a couple times last year. He was better than his record looks.

However, there's no denying he hasn't developed much and has never been able to win with any adversity (which I consider of one the hallmarks of quality).

The Suburban was a very easy spot. That's why I restarted the thread by saying if he doesn't win and break out here there's no longer a way to defend him. It was a gloried allowance race or listed stake with several of the supposed contenders having very serious holes.

IMO, Mr Buff was being overrated. He's a very good statebred that's especially dangerous loose on the lead, but he just lost a statebred race, his prior big figure was bias aided, and he got demolished every time he tried to carry his speed in graded company. Now he was being asked to stretch his speed to 10F against a legit Graded stake horse. IMO, his only chance of winning was being loose on a speed favoring track and Tacitus not showing up. I wanted no part of him and said so before the race along with most of the rest of the above.

We'll see where he goes, but I'm confident I have the balanced view of where he's been.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm not going to go through the record of each of those horses.

Well then, this discussion won't be very fruitful.

Suffice to say, they are all running better Beyer figures now than they were at around the same Tacitus broke out in the Wood Memorial with a terrible trip. He is not.

I guess if we limit ourselves solely to Beyer Speed Figures, I suppose you are on to something. Of course, any way you slice it 100 is greater than 97.

By My Standards just beat him at Oaklawn and Mucho Gutso finished ahead of him in Saudi Arabia after being around a 90 Beyer horse and not a serious Triple Crown horse in the spring.

Although we are not counting such irrelevancies, both horses had an advantage on conditioning in the form of recent races.

However, there's no denying he hasn't developed much and has never been able to win with any adversity (which I consider of one the hallmarks of quality).

Of course, seconds ago you said that he won the Wood Memorial with a terrible trip.

IMO, Mr Buff was being overrated. He's a very good statebred that's especially dangerous loose on the lead, but he just lost a statebred race, his prior big figure was bias aided, and he got demolished every time he tried to carry his speed in graded company. Now he was being asked to stretch his speed to 10F against a legit Graded stake horse. IMO, his only chance of winning was being loose on a speed favoring track and Tacitus not showing up. I wanted no part of him and said so before the race along with most of the rest of the above.

I wish you'd do such a thorough dressing down on some of those horses that Tacitus is supposedly lengths behind. You know, the one's that are running similar figures to Mr. Buff, that had the benefit of cutbacks, time off, drops into listed stakes, prep races, and starts at second-tier tracks.

We'll see where he goes, but I'm confident I have the balanced view of where he's been.

You've ignored what could be construed as bad management on the part of the connections. As they have done with horses of less apparent substance (Hofburg and Hidden Scroll) Tacitus was essentially thrown to the wolves starting in 2019:

-Off a 4 month layoff and just a maiden win to his credit he was asked to compete in a major Derby prep which he won (a hallmark of quality)

-After having a clear excuse for defeat in the Jim Dandy (stumbled badly at the start), Mott inexplicably added blinkers to the horse; the result? A radically altered running style that was certainly not conducive to stretching back out to a classic distance of 10 furlongs; still showed gameness in the stretch while out-dueling the allegedly progressive Mucho Gusto

-After clearly going backwards with the addition of blinkers, Mott inexplicably left the blinkers on for the Jockey Club Gold Cup; a repeat of the Travers form could not have been a surprising result.

-Despite getting a sensible early end to 2019 to allow the horse to "grow", he is asked off a 5-month layoff to fly halfway around the world to face some of the best horses in training in some overblown vanity race.

-Left in the Near East for nearly a month to compete in another vanity project that was ultimately cancelled.

-After a solid stateside return showing some late finish in a merry-go-round event, Mott inexplicably adds the blinkers back on; horse is hard held early but nevertheless scores easily in a field of modest quality (though he does reverse form on the Belmont winner).

If Bobby Frankel was still around, this horse would probably be the next Aptitude (which, mind you, wouldn't be asking for too much).

[Robert Fischer]

At best, arguing about maturity of Tacitus vs. Mucho Gusto is a close call.

I haven't been following Mucho Gusto lately. Has he been retired, or is the barn waiting to see when/if they get hot again, and bring him back for one more late season big purse run?


Tacitus dueled with him on the pace in the Travers, and outperformed him. Neither AFAIK have really run tons better than that, since.

[classhandicapper]

Spalding,

It's unlikely we are going to agree on every bias, trip, field quality, condition and distance impact etc... but some things are objective and obvious.

Objectively, you can use Beyer, Thorograph, or Timeform (which is the most generous to him). The horse has developed very little.

He's a good horse, was one of the better 3yos last year, but he hasn't developed as much as some of the other 3yos or as much as you'd hope if you were an early fan like I was.

If/when he breaks out to a 110 or in that range against a quality field, that's when he's a legitimate Grade 1 older horse.

I'm not sure how such an obvious and innocent post saying if he doesn't win today he'll be hard to defend turned into this thread. He was supposed to beat that Suburban field easily, was bet like it, and he did. If he didn't, there would have been no defense.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

At best, arguing about maturity of Tacitus vs. Mucho Gusto is a close call.

In March of 2019 Mucho Gusto was running figures in the high 80s. He topped out at 90. He broke through to 95 in June. Got to 100 and 101 in the Haskell and Travers. Then he ran a 107 at GP in the Pegasus.

I never said he was better than Tacitus. He might be. They were competitive with each other in both the Travers and Saudi race. I gave him as one of several examples of horses in that crop that were clearly developing much faster than Tacitus. If anything, I'd say his development was greater than average.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Hopefully this will be my last post on this subject

Many dreamed, but few believed.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Many dreamed, but few believed.

You just love the horse and couldn't handle even the slightest criticism or this wouldn't even be a thread. Be happy. He whooped a field he was supposed to whoop.

[Robert Fischer]

Nice graded stakes router with some memorable bad beats, you say??

But, if he loses to a loose Mr. Buff in a slow-paced race, that isn't true.

Ok, he was supposed to beat that weak field. If he doesn't run a 110 Beyer he's not a nice graded stakes router with some memorable bad beats.

OK, happy November 8th 2020. I have to tip my hat to that 111 Beyer 'Classic win by Tacitus yesterday. If you want to say he's a nice graded-stakes router w/ some memorable bad beats, I'm going to have to see him win a Grade 1 where the pace didn't fall apart late.





seriously... he's one of the more fun horses to discuss. I hope he is back in the Woodward or Whitney or both.